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| Title: | 烏克蘭安全政策之研究 — 新古典現實主義的視角
A Study on Ukraine’s Security Policy: A Neoclassical Realist Perspective |
| Authors: | 范姜承宏
Fan Chiang, Cheng-Hung |
| Contributors: | 林永芳
Lin, Yung-Fang
范姜承宏
Fan Chiang, Cheng-Hung |
| Keywords: | 威脅
戰略環境
抗衡
扈從
避險
threat
strategic environment
balancing
bandwagoning
hedging |
| Date: | 2023 |
| Issue Date: | 2023-09-01 16:35:36 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 1991年，持續長達近半世紀的冷戰因蘇聯解體而終結，前蘇聯的加盟國紛紛於這波浪潮中宣佈獨立，烏克蘭亦是其中之一。儘管烏克蘭成為一個新獨立的主權國家，其東側的最大鄰國、同時亦是蘇聯的最大繼承國—俄羅斯卻仍不時對其提出「準主權要求」，而於西側則要面對冷戰終結後仍不斷向東擴張的北大西洋公約組織。因此，對於烏克蘭這個「夾於兩強權之間的中小型國家」而言，獨立後的最大挑戰即是在無政府狀態且權力結構不斷變動的國際環境下維持生存與安全。隨著2014年克里米亞危機、頓巴斯衝突與2022年俄烏戰爭的爆發，上述挑戰則更加嚴峻。
本論文旨在以結合國際結構與國內分析層次的新古典現實主義作為理論架構，研究烏克蘭自獨立後至今六位總統的安全政策性質、轉變與延續。本論文指出，烏克蘭的六位總統都將俄羅斯視為威脅，差別僅在於此一威脅的清晰與緊迫程度，這反映於烏克蘭歷任總統在安全政策方面皆未曾「扈從」俄國，而是搖擺於對俄「抗衡」與「避險」之上。當來自俄羅斯的威脅較模糊、緩和時，烏克蘭的安全政策將主要受到國內而非結構因素的影響；而當來自俄羅斯的威脅轉趨清晰、緊迫時，烏克蘭的安全政策才將更傾向符合體系結構給予的刺激。
In 1991, the Cold War that had lasted for nearly half a century came to an end with the dissolution of the Soviet Union, leading to the declaration of independence by various Soviet republics, including Ukraine. Despite becoming a newly independent sovereign state, Ukraine found itself situated between two great powers. On Ukraine’s eastern side, its largest neighbor and the primary successor to the Soviet Union—Russian Federation—continued to assert “quasi-sovereign claims” over Ukraine. Meanwhile, on its western side, Ukraine faced the enlargement of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization following the end of the Cold War. Thus, for Ukraine—a medium-small state situated between two great powers—the key challenge after its independence was to ensure its survival and security within an international anarchy characterized by a continuously shifting power structure. This challenge intensified with the outbreak of events such as the 2014 Crimea crisis, the Donbas conflict, and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war.
By employing a neoclassical realist approach—a theoretical framework that combines international structural analysis and domestic analysis—this thesis aims to investigate the nature, change and continuity of Ukraine’s security policy under its six presidents since independence. The thesis argues that all six Ukrainian presidents have regarded Russia as a threat, differing primarily in the clarity and imminence of this threat. This argument is also reflected in the fact that none of the Ukrainian presidents elected after its independence have ever bandwagoned with Russia; instead, they have oscillated between “balancing” and “hedging” in their approach toward Russia. When threats from Russia are vague and less imminent, Ukraine’s security policy are primarily influenced by domestic factors rather than structural ones. However, when threats from Russia become clearer and more imminent, Ukraine’s security policy tends to be more responsive with the stimuli from the system structure. |
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三、烏文部分
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四、俄文部分
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РБК. 2021. “МИД Раскрыл Требования России к США по Гарантиям Безопасности.” in https://www.rbc.ru/politics/17/12/2021/61bc677a9a794774aa95d5bd. Accessed on 29 June 2023. |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
俄羅斯研究所
110263001 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110263001 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [俄羅斯研究所] 學位論文
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| 300101.pdf | | 2847Kb | Adobe PDF2 | 116 | View/Open |
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