Loading...
|
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/146395
|
| Title: | 以文字探勘分析致股東報告書與企業投資及股利發放決策間之關聯性
The Association between Reports to Shareholders, Corporate Investment and Dividend Payout Decisions：Using Text Mining Approach |
| Authors: | 許敏柔
Hsu, Min-Jou |
| Contributors: | 張祐慈
Chang, Yu-Tzu
許敏柔
Hsu, Min-Jou |
| Keywords: | 致股東報告書語調
過度投資及投資不足
股利發放
自信程度
BERT
Tone of Reports to Shareholders
Overinvestment and Underinvestment
Dividend Payout
Confidence Level
BERT |
| Date: | 2023 |
| Issue Date: | 2023-08-02 13:25:09 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本研究討論致股東報告書之資訊內涵，先應用BERT模型對2016年至2020年我國上市(櫃)企業揭露之致股東報告書進行文字探勘，分析出此文本資訊之語調，再探討該語調與企業下年度投資及股利發放決策之關聯性，以了解致股東報告書能否提供投資人更多有關企業的重要訊息。過去文獻指出，管理階層呈現於文本資訊(例如MD&A)之語調得反映出其自信程度，該自信程度又對企業過度投資、投資不足及股利發放情形潛藏影響，故致股東報告書語調應能與投資及股利決策連結。
實證結果顯示，該報告書確實就前述決策之走向具備預測能力，其語調與企業下年度過度投資、投資不足程度分別呈顯著正相關及負相關；另一方面，語調與企業下年度股利發放之程度同樣存在顯著關聯，方向為負。而以上結果亦間接證實致股東報告書語調能捕捉到管理階層的自信程度。
This study focuses on the information content of Reports to Shareholders (RTS). First, I applied BERT model to analyze the tone of RTS of listed companies in Taiwan from 2016 to 2020. Then, I investigated the association between the tone of RTS, company’s investment and dividend payout decisions in the next year to explore whether RTS is informative to investors. The literature shows that the management tone presents in the textual information (e.g. MD&A) reflects a manager’s level of confidence, which has a potential impact on corporate investment level and dividend payout level. In the same vein, the tone of RTS may link to those investment and dividend decisions.
The empirical results show that the tone of RTS is significantly positively associated with the degree of overinvestment and negatively associated with the degree of underinvestment in the following year. I also find a significant, negative association between the tone and the next year’s dividend payout level. These findings indicate that RTS has predictive power over corporate decisions and the tone of RTS can be used to capture the level of confidence of management. |
| Reference: | 一、中文文獻
(期刊)
王育偉與鄭揚耀，2013，公司治理、資本支出決策與公司價值，管理與系統，第20卷第4期：665-695。
林嬋娟、潘昭容與王大維，2015，從家族企業論析自由現金流量與投資決策之關聯性，臺大管理論叢，第26卷第1期：95-124。
林穎芬、黃麗津與陳思源，2012，經理人薪酬、公司治理與現金股利政策，中山管理評論，第20卷第4期：1213-1251。
陳予得與林嬋娟，2022，應用遷移學習與文字探勘分析致股東報告書，中華會計學刊，第18卷第1期：123-166。
黃旭輝、陳隆麒與謝劍平，2001，公司成長機會對經理人持股與董事會組成影響之研究，中山管理評論，第9卷第1期：37-59。
(碩博士論文)
翁儀珺，2020，經理人過度自信、公司投資支出與股市價格崩盤之研究，國立成功大學財務金融研究所碩士論文。
陳如意，2020，探討管理階層過度自信、過度投資與股利支付之關聯性，國立成功大學財務金融研究所碩士論文。
莊佳璋，2021，所得稅制優化方案對企業股利、融資及投資決策之影響，國立政治大學會計研究所碩士論文。
梁珮如，2019，致股東報告書文字資訊與裁罰案件關聯性之研究，國立中央大學會計研究所碩士論文。
黃娟娟，2012，公司年報文字探勘與財務預警資訊內涵，私立逢甲大學商學研究所博士論文。
劉細君，2018，分析師特性與公司投資效率關係之研究：來自中國上市公司的證據，國立政治大學會計研究所碩士論文。
謝品涵，2011，從資訊不對稱論析盈餘管理對投資效率之影響，國立臺灣大學會計研究所碩士論文。
羅耘志，2022，公司治理評鑑對資本與員工投資效率之影響：以台灣上市櫃公司為例，國立政治大學會計研究所碩士論文。
(其他)
金融監督管理委員會證券期貨局，2023，歷年上市、上櫃公司家數統計表，取自：https://www.sfb.gov.tw/ch/home.jsp?id=1010&parentpath=0%2C4%2C109。
二、外文文獻
Ali, A. M., and J. Anis. 2012. CEO emotional bias and dividend policy: Bayesian network method. Business & Economic Horizons 7 (1):1-18.
Almeida, H., and M. Campello. 2007. Financial constraints, asset tangibility, and corporate investment. The Review of Financial Studies 20 (5):1429-1460.
Al-Najjar, B. 2013. The financial determinants of corporate cash holdings: Evidence from some emerging markets. International Business Review 22 (1):77-88.
Amidu, M., and J. Abor. 2006. Determinants of dividend payout ratios in Ghana. The Journal of Risk Finance 7 (2):136-145.
Arslan, Ö. 2008. Overinvestment and investment inefficiency: A study on UK firms. Journal of Economic & Management Perspectives 2 (3):134-149.
Ataullah, A., A. Vivian, and B. Xu. 2018. Optimistic disclosure tone and conservative debt policy. Abacus 54 (4):445-484.
Ben-David, I., C. R. Harvey, and J. R. Graham. 2007. Managerial overconfidence and corporate policies. Working paper, National Bureau of Economic Research.
Ben-David, I., J. R. Graham, and C. R. Harvey. 2013. Managerial miscalibration. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 128 (4):1547-1584.
Benlemlih, M., and M. Bitar. 2018. Corporate social responsibility and investment efficiency. Journal of Business Ethics 148:647-671.
Bertrand, M., and A. Schoar. 2003. Managing with style: The effect of managers on firm policies. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 118 (4):1169-1208.
Biddle, G. C., G. Hilary, and R. S. Verdi. 2009. How does financial reporting quality relate to investment efficiency? Journal of Accounting and Economics 48 (2-3): 112-131.
Black, E. L., J. Legoria, and K. F. Sellers. 2000. Capital investment effects of dividend imputation. Journal of the American Taxation Association 22 (2):40-59.
Blose, L. E., and J. C. Shieh. 1997. Tobin`s q‐ratio and market reaction to capital investment announcements. Financial Review 32 (3):449-476.
Brav, A., J. R. Graham, C. R. Harvey, and R. Michaely. 2005. Payout policy in the 21st century. Journal of Financial Economics 77 (3):483-527.
Bryan, S. H. 1997. Incremental information content of required disclosures contained in management discussion and analysis. The Accounting Review 72 (2):285-301.
Bzeouich, B., F. Lakhal, and N. Dammak. 2019. Earnings management and corporate investment efficiency: Does the board of directors matter? Journal of Financial Reporting and Accounting 17 (4):650-670.
Campbell, T. C., M. Gallmeyer, S. A. Johnson, J. Rutherford, and B. W. Stanley. 2011. CEO optimism and forced turnover. Journal of Financial Economics 101 (3): 695-712.
Cao, Y., Y. Dong, Y. Lu, and D. Ma. 2020. Does institutional ownership improve firm investment efficiency? Emerging Markets Finance and Trade 56 (12):2772-2792.
Chang, R. P., and S. G. Rhee. 1990. The impact of personal taxes on corporate dividend policy and capital structure decisions. Financial Management:21-31.
Chen, F., O. K. Hope, Q. Li, and X. Wang. 2011. Financial reporting quality and investment efficiency of private firms in emerging markets. The Accounting Review 86 (4):1255-1288.
Chen, I. J., and S. H. Lin. 2012. Will managerial optimism affect the investment efficiency of a firm? Procedia Economics and Finance 2:73-80.
Chen, S., Z. Sun, S. Tang, and D. Wu. 2011. Government intervention and investment efficiency: Evidence from China. Journal of Corporate Finance 17 (2):259-271.
Coles, J. L., N. D. Daniel, and L. Naveen. 2008. Boards: Does one size fit all? Journal of Financial Economics 87 (2):329-356.
Cordeiro, L. 2009. Managerial overconfidence and dividend policy. Working paper, London Business School.
Davis, A. K., W. Ge, D. Matsumoto, and J. L. Zhang. 2015. The effect of manager-specific optimism on the tone of earnings conference calls. Review of Accounting Studies 20: 639-673.
DeAngelo, H., L. DeAngelo, and D. J. Skinner. 1992. Dividends and losses. The Journal of Finance 47 (5):1837-1863.
Dechow, P. M., and I. D. Dichev. 2002. The quality of accruals and earnings: The role of accrual estimation errors. The Accounting Review 77 (s-1):35-59.
Delvin, J., M. W. Chang, K. Lee, and K. Toutanova. 2019. BERT: Pre-training of deep bidirectional transformer for language understanding. arXiv:1810.04805.
Deshmukh, S. 2003. Dividend initiations and asymmetric information: A hazard model. Financial Review 38 (3):351-368.
Deshmukh, S., A. M. Goel, and K. M. Howe. 2013. CEO overconfidence and dividend policy. Journal of Financial Intermediation 22 (3):440-463.
Dietrich, D. 2007. Asset tangibility and capital allocation. Journal of Corporate Finance 13 (5):995-1007.
Elmagrhi, M. H., C. G. Ntim, R. M. Crossley, J. K. Malagila, S. Fosu, and T. V. Vu. 2017. Corporate governance and dividend pay-out policy in UK listed SMEs: The effects of corporate board characteristics. International Journal of Accounting & Information Management 25 (4):459-483.
Faccio, M., L. H. P. Lang, and L. Young. 2001. Dividends and expropriation. American Economic Review 91 (1)54-78.
Fama, E. F., and K. R. French. 2001. Disappearing dividends: Changing firm characteristics or lower propensity to pay? Journal of Financial Economics 60 (1):3-43.
Fazzari, S. M., R. G. Hubbard, and B. C. Petersen. 1988. Financing constraints and corporate investment. Brookings Papers on Economics Activity 1:141-195.
Fedorova, E., P. Drogovoz, A. Nevredinov, P. Kazinina, and C. Qitan. 2022. Impact of MD&A sentiment on corporate investment in developing economies: Chinese evidence. Asian Review of Accounting 30 (4):513-539.
Fenn, G. W., and N. Liang. 2001. Corporate payout policy and managerial stock incentives. Journal of Financial Economics 60 (1): 45-72.
Fisher, I. E., M. R. Garnsey, S. Goel, and K. Tam. 2010. The role of text analytics and information retrieval in the accounting domain. Journal of Emerging Technologies in Accounting 7 (1):1-24.
Gong, R. 2022. CEO overconfidence and the tone of press release. Accounting & Finance 00:1-28.
Grinblatt, M., and M. Keloharju. 2009. Sensation seeking, overconfidence, and trading activity. The Journal of Finance 64 (2):549-578.
Grullon, G., R. Michaely, and B. Swaminathan. 2002. Are dividend changes a sign of firm maturity? The Journal of Business 75 (3):387-424.
Ham, C., N. Seybert, and S. Wang. 2018. Narcissism is a bad sign: CEO signature size, investment, and performance. Review of Accounting Studies 23:234-264.
Harford, J., and K. Li. 2007. Decoupling CEO wealth and firm performance: The case of acquiring CEOs. The Journal of Finance 62 (2):917-949.
He, Y., C. Chen, and Y. Hu. 2019. Managerial overconfidence, internal financing, and investment efficiency: Evidence from China. Research in International Business and Finance 47:501-510.
Heaton, J. B. 2002. Managerial optimism and corporate finance. Financial Management 31 (2):33-45.
Hestinoviana, V., and S. R. Handayani. 2013. The influence of profitability, solvability, asset growth, and sales growth toward firm value. Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis 4 (1):1-7.
Jabbouri, I. 2016. Determinants of corporate dividend policy in emerging markets: Evidence from MENA stock markets. Research in International Business and Finance 37:283-298.
Jennergren, L. P. 2008. Continuing value in firm valuation by the discounted cash flow model. European Journal of Operational Research 185 (3):1548-1563.
Jensen, M. C. 1986. Agency costs of free cash flow, corporate finance, and takeovers. The American Economic Review 76 (2):323-329.
Jiang, F., W. Cai, X. Wang, and B. Zhu. 2018. Multiple large shareholders and corporate investment: Evidence from China. Journal of Corporate Finance 50: 66-83.
Jones, M. J., and P. A. Shoemaker. 1994. Accounting narratives: A review of empirical studies of content and readability. Journal of Accounting Literature 13:142.
Jory, S. R., T. Ngo, and H. Sakaki. 2017. Institutional ownership stability and dividend payout policy. Managerial Finance 43 (10):1170-1188.
Kearney, C., and S. Liu. 2014. Textual sentiment in finance: A survey of methods and models. International Review of Financial Analysis 33:171-185.
Kim, S. T. 2017. Managements` overconfident tone and corporate policies. Summer Program for Undergraduate Research, University of Pennsylvania.
Kuzucu, N. 2015. Determinants of dividend policy: A panel data analysis for Turkish listed firms. International Journal of Business and Management 10 (11):149-160.
La Porta, R., F. Lopez-de-Silanes, A. Shleifer, and R. Vishny. 2000. Investor protection and corporate governance. Journal of Financial Economics 58(1-2):3-27.
Labhane, N. B., and J. Mahakud. 2016. Determinants of dividend policy of Indian companies: A panel data analysis. Paradigm 20 (1):36-55.
Lai, S. M., C. L. Liu, and T. Wang. 2014. Increased disclosure and investment efficiency. Asia-Pacific Journal of Accounting & Economics 21 (3):308-327.
Landier, A., and D. Thesmar. 2008. Financial contracting with optimistic entrepreneurs. The Review of Financial Studies 22 (1):117-150.
Langer, E. J. 1975. The illusion of control. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 32(2):311-328.
Lee, J. M., B. H. Hwang, and H. Chen. 2017. Are founder CEOs more overconfident than professional CEOs? Evidence from S&P 1500 companies. Strategic Management Journal 38 (3):751-769.
Li, F. 2008. Annual report readability, current earnings, and earnings persistence. Journal of Accounting and Economics 45:221-47.
Li, F. 2010a. The information content of forward‐looking statements in corporate filings—A naïve Bayesian machine learning approach. Journal of Accounting Research 48 (5):1049-1102.
Li, F. 2010b. Managers` self-serving attribution bias, overconfidence, and corporate financial policies. Working paper, The University of Michigan.
Li, F. 2010c. Textual analysis of corporate disclosures: A survey of the literature. Journal of Accounting Literature 29:143-165.
Liu, L., H. Le, and S. Thompson. 2022. CEO overconfidence and bank systemic risk: Evidence from US bank holding companies. International Journal of Finance & Economics 27 (3):2977-2996.
Loughran, T., and B. McDonald. 2011. When is a liability not a liability? Textual analysis, dictionaries, and 10‐Ks. The Journal of Finance 66 (1):35-65.
Malik, F., S. Gul, M. T. Khan, S. U. Rehman, and M. Khan. 2013. Factors influencing corporate dividend payout decisions of financial and non-financial firms. Research Journal of Finance and Accounting 4 (1):35-46.
Malmendier, U., and G. Tate. 2005. CEO overconfidence and corporate investment. The Journal of Finance 60 (6):2661-2700.
Malmendier, U., and G. Tate. 2008. Who makes acquisitions? CEO overconfidence and the market`s reaction. Journal of Financial Economics 89 (1):20-43.
Maric, B., and A. Ivanisevic. 2013. The effect of permanent working capital on the quality of investment projects. Metalurgia International 18 (3):50-52.
Mayew, W. J., M. Sethuraman, and M. Venkatachalam. 2015. MD&A disclosure and the firm`s ability to continue as a going concern. The Accounting Review 90 (4): 1621-1651.
Myers, S. C. 1977. Determinants of corporate borrowing. Journal of Financial Economics 5 (2):147-175.
Myers, S. C., and N. S. Majluf. 1984. Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have. Journal of Financial Economics 13 (2):187-221.
Ntim, C. G., K. K. Opong, and J. Danbolt. 2015. Board size, corporate regulations and firm valuation in an emerging market: A simultaneous equation approach. International Review of Applied Economics 29 (2):194-220.
Pan, S. J., and Q. Yang. 2010. A survey on transfer learning. IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering 22 (10):1345-1359.
Pava, M. L., and M. J. Epstein. 1993. How good is MD&A as an investment tool? Journal of Accountancy 175 (3):51-53.
Pikulina, E., L. Renneboog, and P. N. Tobler. 2017. Overconfidence and investment: An experimental approach. Journal of Corporate Finance 43:175-192.
Ramezani, C. A., L. Soenen, and A. Jung. 2002. Growth, corporate profitability, and value creation. Financial Analysts Journal 58 (6):56-67.
Richardson, S. 2006. Over-investment of free cash flow. Review of Accounting Studies 11:159-189.
Roll, R. 1986. The hubris hypothesis of corporate takeovers. The Journal of Business 59 (2):197-216.
Roychowdhury, S., N. Shroff, and R. S. Verdi. 2019. The effects of financial reporting and disclosure on corporate investment: A review. Journal of Accounting and Economics 68(2-3):101246.
Rozeff, M. S. 1982. Growth, beta and agency costs as determinants of dividend payout ratios. Journal of Financial Research 5 (3):249-259.
Sauerwald, S., and W. Su. 2019. CEO overconfidence and CSR decoupling. Corporate Governance: An International Review 27 (4):283-300.
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). 2003. Interpretation: Commission guidance regarding management’s discussion and analysis of financial condition and results of operations. Securities Act Release 33-8350:34-48960, SEC, Washington, DC.
Segerstrom, S. C. 2001. Optimism and attentional bias for negative and positive stimuli. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 27 (10):1334-1343.
Shahzad, F., I. U. Rehman, F. Nawaz, and N. Nawab. 2018. Does family control explain why corporate social responsibility affects investment efficiency? Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management 25(5):880-888.
Siano, F., and P. Wysocki. 2021. Transfer learning and textual analysis of accounting disclosures: applying big data methods to small (ER) datasets. Accounting Horizons 35 (3):217-244.
Skinner, D. J., and E. Soltes. 2011. What do dividends tell us about earnings quality? Review of Accounting Studies 16:1-28.
Smith Jr, C. W., and R. L. Watts. 1992. The investment opportunity set and corporate financing, dividend, and compensation policies. Journal of Financial Economics 32 (3):263-292.
Tan, A. H. 1999. Text mining: The state of the art and the challenges. Workshop on Knowledge Discovery from Advanced Databases 8:65-70.
Tavcar, L. R. 1998. Make the MD&A more readable. The CPA Journal 68 (1):10.
Tekin, B. 2018. Overconfidence and effect on firm financial decisions in the context of behavioral corporate finance. ELK`s International Journal of Finance 9 (4):59-90.
Ting, S. L., W. H. Ip, and A. H. Tsang. 2011. Is Naive Bayes a good classifier for document classification? International Journal of Software Engineering and Its Applications 5 (3):37-46.
Titman, S., K. J. Wei, and F. Xie. 2004. Capital investments and stock returns. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 39 (4):677-700.
Tobin, J. 1969. A general equilibrium approach to monetary theory. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 1 (1):15-29.
Wahjudi, E. 2020. Factors affecting dividend policy in manufacturing companies in Indonesia Stock Exchange. Journal of Management Development 39 (1):4-17.
Wu, C. H., and V. W. Liu. 2011. Payout policy and CEO overconfidence. Working paper, National Sun Yat-sen University.
Zhao, J., M. Wang, and Q. He. 2023. Cash holdings, the internal capital market, and capital allocation efficiency in listed companies. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja 36 (1):827-844. |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
會計學系
110353022 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110353022 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [會計學系] 學位論文
|
Files in This Item:
| File |
Description |
Size | Format | |
|---|
| 302201.pdf | | 3829Kb | Adobe PDF2 | 0 | View/Open |
|
All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.
|
