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    题名: 運用文字探勘技術探討管理階層討論與分析的風險揭露與總經理異動之關聯性
    Applying text mining technology to explore the correlation between MD&A risk disclosure and CEO turnover
    作者: 張嫚驛
    Chang, Man-Yi
    贡献者: 李佳玲
    Lee, Chia-Ling
    張嫚驛
    Chang, Man-Yi
    关键词: 風險揭露
    管理階層討論與分析
    文本分析
    總經理異動
    Risk disclosure
    MD&A
    Textual analysis
    CEO turnover
    日期: 2023
    上传时间: 2023-08-02 13:23:25 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本研究聚焦於公司與風險相關文字性揭露之語調及主題是否能提供總經理異動的相關資訊。過去文獻指出，公司於年報中之風險揭露對於投資人而言具備資訊價值。有鑑於此，本研究以2007年至2019年美國S&P1500之公司為研究對象，探討於10K年報MD&A章節中風險揭露之語調及LDA主題模型所辨識出之風險主題與揭露隔年總經理異動的關聯性。實證結果顯示，MD&A風險揭露之悲觀語調與揭露隔年總經理異動呈顯著正相關；此外，風險揭露中與當期財務績效相關及與訴訟相關之風險主題與揭露隔年總經理異動亦呈顯著正相關。然而，風險揭露中與繼續經營相關的風險主題與揭露隔年總經理異動則不具相關性。額外分析進一步顯示出MD&A風險揭露之語調及風險主題僅與揭露隔年總經理異動有關，而與揭露後兩年之總經理異動較不具相關性；且董事會在做總經理解僱決策時，MD&A風險揭露之悲觀語調及與當期財務績效相關之風險主題是其考量的重點。藉由本研究之發現，除了延伸過去對MD&A資訊價值的分析，也可以作為SEC日後制定及改善相關揭露準則的依據。
    This paper examines whether the tone and topic of corporate textual disclosures related to risk and uncertainty conveys relevant information about CEO turnover. Prior studies have shown that risk disclosures in corporate annual reports provide incremental information for investors. Using observations of firms listed in US Standard & Poor 1500, this study investigates the correlation between the tone and risk topics identified via Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) topic model of textual risk disclosures in the Management’s Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) section of 10-K filings and subsequent CEO turnover . The results indicates that the probability of subsequent CEO turnover is positively associated with the pessimism of the language used in the MD&A risk disclosures. In addition, the risk topics related to corporate current financial performance and lawsuit disclosed in the risk disclosures is also positively associated with subsequent CEO turnover. However, we find no correlation between the risk topics related to going concern and subsequent CEO turnover. Additional analyses further reveal that the tone and risk topics in MD&A risk disclosures are only associated with CEO turnover in the subsequent year, and are less correlated with CEO turnover in the following two years after disclosure. Moreover, the pessimistic tone in MD&A risk disclosures and risk topics related to current financial performance are key considerations for the board of directors when making CEO dismissal decisions. Based on the findings of this study, we extend prior literatures on the information value of MD&A, and the findings can also serve as a basis for the SEC to formulate and improve relevant disclosure guidelines in the future.
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    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    會計學系
    110353007
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110353007
    数据类型: thesis
    显示于类别:[會計學系] 學位論文

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