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| Title: | 選擇性信用管制及升息對營建業及銀行股價之影響-以事件研究法分析
The Impact of Selective Credit Control and Interest Rate Hikes on Construction Industry and Bank Stock Prices - An Event Study Approach |
| Authors: | 陳宛柔
Chen, Wan-Jou |
| Contributors: | 胡偉民
黃柏鈞
Hu, Wei-Min
Huang, Po-Chun
陳宛柔
Chen, Wan-Jou |
| Keywords: | 事件研究法
選擇性信用管制
升息
營建業
銀行
Event study
Selective Credit Control
Interest Rate Hike
Construction Industry
Banking |
| Date: | 2023 |
| Issue Date: | 2023-07-06 16:39:10 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 受到中美貿易戰、新冠疫情與寬鬆的貨幣政策等因素影響，近年來台灣的房地產交易熱絡。為了阻止房價持續的高漲以及遏止炒作的風氣，政府陸續推行了各項政策，例如選擇性信用管制與升息、房地合一稅2.0與修正平均地權條例等，期許透過這些政策來防止房市過熱。
本文欲探討中央銀行推行的選擇性信用管制與升息政策是否對營建產業與銀行類股的股價帶來影響。本文將四波選擇性信用管制與五次升息分為九個事件，並將產業分為建設公司、營造公司、銷售公司與銀行四類，利用事件研究法探討各個事件對個別產業的股價異常報酬率影響。
根據本文的實證結果選擇性信用管制及升息政策確實對建設公司及營造公司產生負向的衝擊，使資金周轉不易，在股價上出現顯著的負向異常報酬率，而銷售公司並未受到政策顯著的影響。銀行則分別因選擇性信用管制政策遭受負向的衝擊與因升息同時得到正面與負面的影響，並反映在股價波動上。
In recent years, Taiwan`s real estate market has been active due to factors such as the US-China trade war, the COVID-19 pandemic, and loose monetary policies. In order to curb continuous housing price increases and speculative activities, the government has implemented various policies, including selective credit controls, interest rate hikes, the introduction of Real Estate and Property Tax 2.0, and amendments to the Land Act. These policies aim to prevent the overheating of the housing market.
This article aims to explore whether the central bank`s implementation of selective credit controls and interest rate hikes has had an impact on the stock prices of the construction industry and banking sector. The article categorizes the four waves of selective credit controls and five interest rate hikes into nine events. The industries are classified into construction companies, contractors, sales companies, and banks. The event study methodology is used to examine the impact of each event on the abnormal stock returns of individual industries.
Based on the empirical results of this study, it is found that selective credit controls and interest rate hikes indeed have a negative impact on construction companies and contractors. These policies make it difficult for them to obtain financing, leading to significant negative abnormal returns in stock prices. Sales companies, on the other hand, are not significantly affected by the policies. Banks, however, are affected differently, experiencing negative impacts from selective credit controls and both positive and negative effects from interest rate hikes, which are reflected in stock price fluctuations. |
| Reference: | 壹、中文文獻
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
110255007 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0110255007 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [財政學系] 學位論文
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