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    题名: 德國對俄羅斯避險政策之研究(2005-2022)
    A Study of Germany’s Hedging Strategy towards Russia(2005-2022)
    作者: 林錡楓
    Lin, Chi-Feng
    贡献者: 蘇卓馨
    林錡楓
    Lin, Chi-Feng
    关键词: 德國對俄政策
    德俄關係
    避險策略
    俄烏衝突
    Germany’s Russia policy
    German-Russian relations
    Hedging strategy
    Russo-Ukrainian conflict
    日期: 2023
    上传时间: 2023-03-09 18:10:25 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本文旨在探討在俄羅斯—烏克蘭衝突框架下的德國對俄政策。自2014年烏克蘭危機以來至2022年俄國對烏克蘭的入侵，基於德國與俄羅斯的密切關係以及德國在大西洋社群中的領導地位，德國的對俄政策一直都是左右俄烏衝突局勢發展的決定性因素。同時，柏林與莫斯科長年累積下來的經濟與能源合作基礎，加上俄國近年來屢屢破壞民主、人權、法治等價值及日益強勢的對外行為，使得德國前總理安格拉．梅克爾(Angela Merkel)及現任總理奧拉夫．蕭茲(Olaf Scholz)均逐步調整德國的對俄政策，在維護共同利益的同時也防範潛在的安全威脅，因而使德國對俄政策產生了結構現實主義中避險策略之特徵。於此，本文將梳理德國對俄政策之根源及政策形成之脈絡，並以避險理論來分析德國對俄避險政策之發展及其在俄烏衝突框架下的轉變。
    This thesis discusses Germany`s Russia policy in the context of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. Based on the close relations between Germany and Russia and Germany’s leading role in the Trans-Atlantic community, Germany’s Russia policy has been playing a decisive role in affecting the situation of the conflict from the Ukraine Crisis of 2014 to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Meanwhile, given the complex situation that Berlin and Moscow have been cooperating in the fields of trade, investment, and particularly energy for decades; plus, Russia has been breaching the values of democracy, human rights, and rule-based international order in recent years, the German ex-chancellor Angela Merkel and the current chancellor Olaf Scholz have gradually made some changes on the country’s Russia policy during their tenures. Those changes aim at maintaining common interests but simultaneously preventing potential threats to national security, and as a result attribute the characteristics of the “hedging strategy” of the structural realism to Germany’s Russia policy. This thesis will first probe into the roots of Germany’s Russia policy and how it was shaped during the past decades, then analyze the policy’s development and its changes under the context of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict with the hedging strategy.
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    鄭春榮，李勤，2022，〈俄烏衝突下德國新政府外交與安全政策的轉型〉，2022年03期：126-154。

    蔡明彥，張凱銘，2015，〈「避險」戰略下大國互動模式之研究：以美中亞太戰略競合為例〉，《遠景基金會季刊》，16(3): 1-68。

    謝安，2019，〈梅克爾時期德國對俄羅斯外交政策之研究〉，台北：國立政治大學外交學系戰略與國際事務碩士在職專班學位論文。

    戴啟秀，2015，〈烏克蘭危機對德俄關係及全球格局的潛在影響〉，《國際觀察》，2: 100-113。

    蘇卓馨，2019，〈歐盟規範性權力與中國關係性權力在中東歐國家的實踐〉，《政治科學論叢》，81: 69-104。

    （三）新聞媒體
    中央社，2022，〈蒲亭宣布：將對烏克蘭採取特種軍事作戰〉，https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aopl/202202245004.aspx，查閱時間：2022年11月8日。

    自由時報，2014，〈歐、俄角力/斡旋烏克蘭危機 德扮要角〉，https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/paper/756607，查閱時間：2022/10/23。

    德國之聲中文網，2022，〈八小時談判奏效，俄烏同意不動武〉，https://www.dw.com/zh/%E5%85%AB%E5%B0%8F%E6%97%B6%E8%B0%88%E5%88%A4%E5%A5%8F%E6%95%88-%E4%BF%84%E4%B9%8C%E5%90%8C%E6%84%8F%E4%B8%8D%E5%8A%A8%E6%AD%A6/a-60568821，查閱時間：2022年11月8日。

    轉角國際，2022，〈金星來的德國人（中）搶救和平的「德軍一千億」？〉，https://global.udn.com/global_vision/story/8663/6208846，查閱時間：2022/10/30。

     
    三、德文資料
    Augen Geradeaus! 2022. “Ukraine/Russland/NATO – Sammler 3. März 2022 (Update: Briefings Russland, USA).” https://augengeradeaus.net/2022/03/ukraine-russland-nato-sammler-3-maerz-2022/comment-page-1/. (Accessed on November 19,2022).

    Bundeswehr. 2022. “Die Trendwende Finanzen.” https://www.bundeswehr.de/de/ueber-die-bundeswehr/modernisierung-bundeswehr/verteidigungshaushalt-trendwende-finanzen (Accessed on November 17, 2022).

    Die Bundesregierung. 2022. “Militärische Unterstützungsleistungen für die Ukraine.” https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/news/military-support-ukraine-2054992 (Accessed on November 11, 2022).

    Die Bundesregierung. 2021. “Koalitionsvertrag zwischen SPD, Bündnis 90/ Die Grünen und FDP, Meir Fortschritt Wagen, Bündnis für Freiheit, Gerechtigkeit und Nachhaltigkeit." p.146. https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/service/gesetzesvorhaben/koalitionsvertrag-2021-1990800 (Accessed on November 15, 2022)

    Der Bundespraesident. 2013. “Speech by federal president Joachim Gauck to mark the Day of German Unity”. http://www.bundespraesident.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/ DE/Reden/2013/10/131003-Tag-Deutsche-Einheit-englische-Uebersetzung.pdf;jsessionid=E41D5D803085D1D08E03B3C521000B07.2_cid293?__blob=publicationFile (Accessed on October 8, 2022).

    Die Bundesregierung. 2014. “Regierungserklärung von Bundeskanzlerin Merkel zum Europäischen Rat am 18./19. Dezember in Brüssel.” https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/regierungserklaerung-von-bundeskanzlerin-merkel-zum-europaeischen-rat-am-18-19-dezember-in-bruessel-434630 (Accessed on September 22, 2022)

    Die Bundesregierung. 2018. “Koalitionsvertrag zwischen CDU, CSU, und SPD.” https://www.bundesregierung.de/resource/blob/974430/847984/5b8bc23590d4cb2892b31c987ad672b7/2018-03-14-koalitionsvertrag-data.pdf?download=1 (Accessed on September 27, 2022).

    Frankfurter Allgemeine. 2019. “Zustand der deutschen Panzer und Flugzeuge soll geheim bleiben.” https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/bundeswehr-zustand-der-deutschen-panzer-soll-geheim-bleiben-16083344.html (Accessed on November 1, 2022).

    Tagesspiegel. 2022. “Scholz hat seine Zusagen schon wieder einkassiert.” https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/zeitenwende-fuer-die-bundeswehr-scholz-hat-seine-zusagen-schon-wieder-einkassiert/28239210.html. (Accessed on November 19, 2022).

    Zentrum Liberale Moderne. 2021. “Merkel’s Ambivalent Legacy in Post-Soviet Eastern Europe.” https://libmod.de/en/merkels-ambivalent-legacy-in-post-soviet-eastern-europe-umland/ (Accessed on October 1, 2022).
    描述: 碩士
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