Loading...
|
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/141370
|
| Title: | 何時「一帶一路」的參與國會落入債務陷阱? 六個開發中國家的個案研究
When Do BRI Participants Fall into Debt Traps? Case Studies of Six Developing Countries |
| Authors: | 何燁
Chojecki, Patryk |
| Contributors: | 薛健吾
Hsueh, Chien-Wu (Alex)
何燁
Chojecki, Patryk |
| Keywords: | 一帶一路
中國
開發中國家
債務陷阱
Belt and Road Initiative
Debt-Trap Diplomacy
China
Developing Countries |
| Date: | 2022 |
| Issue Date: | 2022-08-01 18:54:32 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 為何某些「一帶一路」參與者最終會陷入債務陷阱，然而其他卻不會呢？多年來，關於中國債務陷阱的話題出現了許多討論。目前為止，究竟何種先決條件會決定一帶一路特定參與國的情況，學界並不存在共識。本文透過提出以下研究問題為「一帶一路」的討論做出貢獻——在政治與經濟條件相似，且一帶一路投資佔其GDP比重接近的情況下，為何有些國家會陷入債務陷阱，而有些國家卻不會?作者選取了六個發展中國家，將其分為兩組來回答該問題。第一組由三個國家組成，中國債務占這些國家 GDP 的比例很高，包含了寮國、吉布地以及安哥拉。第二組則是債務問題較小的國家，包含柬埔寨、斯里蘭卡和茅利塔尼亞。根據本研究的經濟與政治指標，政治自由度和政府效率明顯較低的一帶一路參與國更容易陷入中國債務陷阱。此外，作者確定了兩個具體案例的先決條件，寮國和吉布地最終陷入債務陷阱，主要因為大型基礎設施項目最終證明是無利可圖的，並加劇了隱藏債務的數量，而於安哥拉的例子中，其落入債務陷阱的主要決定因素是石油換基礎設施貸款計劃。本研究最後為政策制定者提供了一些研究意義，並為未來的研究者提供研究建議。
Why do certain BRI participants end up in debt traps while others do not? Throughout the years, many discussions emerged on the topic of Chinese debt traps. So far, there is no consensus among the scholarly community on what precondition may determine the situation of particular BRI members. This thesis contributes to the BRI discourse by proposing the following research question – Among the picked BRI-participating countries with similar political and economic conditions and close degrees of BRI investments over their GDP, why do some countries fall into debt traps, while others do not? The author selected six developing countries and divided them into two groups to answer this question. The first consisted of three nations that reached high debt exposure to China as a percentage of their GDP. Those countries are Laos, Djibouti, and Angola. In the second group, the author placed countries with minor debt distress issues: Cambodia, Sri Lanka, and Mauritania. The analysis of economic and political measurements shows a critical precondition that BRI members with significantly lower levels of political freedom and government efficiency are more likely to fall into Chinese debt traps. Furthermore, the author determined two case-specific prerequisites. In the examples of Laos and Djibouti, the nations ended up in a debt trap primarily due to large infrastructural projects that turned out to be not profitable and exacerbated the amount of hidden debt. In the instance of Angola, the main determinant was the oil-for-infrastructure loan scheme. The thesis concludes with implications for policymakers and suggestions for future research. |
| Reference: | Abeysinghe, T., & Lu, D. (2003). China as an economic powerhouse: Implications on its neighbors. China Economic Review, 14(2), 164–185. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1043- 951X(03)00017-8
Abi-Habib, M. (2018). How China Got Sri Lanka to Cough Up a Port. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/world/asia/china-sri-lanka-port.html
Altamura, C. E. (2015). European Banks and the Rise of International Finance after Bretton Woods (1973–1982) [PhD Diss.]. Acta Universitatis Upsaliensis.
Ameyaw-Brobbey, T. (2018). The Belt and Road Initiative: Debt Trap and its Implication on International Security. Asian Journalof Multidisciplinary Studies, 1(2).
Arifon, O., Huang, Z. A., Zheng, Y., & Zyw Melo, A. (2019). Comparing Chinese and European Discourses regarding the “Belt and Road Initiative.” Revue Française Des Sciences de l’information et de La Communication, 17, 1–24. https://doi.org/10.4000/rfsic.6212
Asian Development Bank. (2010). Opening of Cambodia Railroad Puts Pan-Asian Railway Firmly on Track. https://www.adb.org/news/opening-cambodia-railroad-puts-pan-asian- railway-firmly-track
Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. (2021). About AIIB. https://www.aiib.org/en/about- aiib/index.html
Bajo, C. S., & Roelants, B. (2011). Capital and the Debt Trap: Learning from cooperatives in the global crisis. Palgrave Macmillan UK.
Bennett, A. (2004). Case Study Methods: Design, Use, and Comparative. In D. F. Sprinz & Yael Wolinsky-Nahmias (Eds.), Models, Numbers, And Cases (pp. 19–55). University of Michigan.
Bennett, A., & Elman, C. (2007). Case Study Methods in the International Relations Subfield. Comparative Political Studies, 40(2), 170–195. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414006296346
Bhatia, R., Kulkarni, K., Lee, L., & Gayakwad, S. (2016). Chinese investments in Sri Lanka. https://www.gatewayhouse.in/chinese-investments-sri-lanka-2/
Bräutigam, D. (2011). Aid “with chinese characteristics”: Chinese foreign aid and development finance meet the OECD-DAC aid regime. Journal of International Development, 23(5), 752–764. https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.1798
85
Brautigam, D. (2020). A critical look at Chinese ‘debt-trap diplomacy’: the rise of a meme. Area Development and Policy, 5(1), 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1080/23792949.2019.1689828
Brautingam, D., & Rithmire, M. (2021). The Chinese ‘Debt Trap’ Is a Myth. The Atlantic. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2021/02/china-debt-trap- diplomacy/617953/
Çalışkan, G. (2021). The Only Place In The World China Has A Military Base: Djibouti. Ankasam Anhkacam. https://www.ankasam.org/the-only-place-in-the-world-china-has- a-military-base-djibouti-v/?lang=en
Carminati, D. (2022). Will China’s Railway in Laos Help Bolster Its ‘Soft Power’? The Diplomat. https://thediplomat.com/2022/01/will-chinas-railway-in-laos-help-bolster-its- soft-power/
Carmody, P. (2020). Dependence not debt-trap diplomacy. Area Development and Policy, 5(1), 23–31. https://doi.org/10.1080/23792949.2019.1702471
Cecchetti, S. G., Mohanty, M., & Zampolli, F. (2011). The real effects of debt. https://www.bis.org/publ/work352.pdf
Chang, F. K. (2022). Deficit Trap?: Trade Balances and China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The Foreign Policy Research Institute. https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/07/deficit-trap- trade-balances-and-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative/
Chase, M. S. (2019). The Space and Cyberspace Components of the Belt and Road Initiative. In NBR Special Report no. 80 (Vol. 1, Issue 80). The National Bureau of Asian Research.
Chaudhury, D. R. (2021). Africa’s rising debt: Chinese loans to continent exceeds $140 billion. The Economic Times. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/africas-rising- debt-chinese-loans-to-continent-exceeds-140- billion/articleshow/86444602.cms?from=mdr
Chaziza, M. (2021). China Economic Relations with Mauritania in the Age of the Belt and Road Initiative. The Journal for Interdisciplinary Middle Eastern Studies, 7(1), 65–86. https://doi.org/10.26351/JIMES/7-1/3
Chellaney, B. (2017a). China’s Creditor Imperialism by Brahma Chellaney - Project Syndicate. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-sri-lanka-hambantota- port-debt-by-brahma-chellaney-2017-12
86
Chellaney, B. (2017b, January 23). China’s Debt-Trap Diplomacy by Brahma Chellaney - Project Syndicate. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-one-belt-one- road-loans-debt-by-brahma-chellaney-2017-01
Chellaney, B. (2021, May 2). China’s debt-trap diplomacy. The Hill. https://thehill.com/opinion/international/551337-chinas-debt-trap-diplomacy
Chheang, V. (2017). Cambodia Embraces China’s Belt and Road Initiative. ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/7213
Chheang, V. (2021). BRI Projects in Cambodia and Laos Roll On Despite Covid-19. ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute. http://hdl.handle.net/11540/13944
Chinyong Liow, J., Liu, H., & Xue, G. (2021). Research Handbook on the Belt and Road Initiative. Edward Elgar Publishing. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781789908718
Goodrich, G. (2021). Top 10: Africa’s Leading Oil Producers in 2021. Energy Capital & Power. https://energycapitalpower.com/top-10-africas-leading-oil-producers-in-2021/
Goodrick, D. (2014). Comparative Case Studies: Methodological Briefs - Impact Evaluation. Methodological Briefs, 9.
Greer, T. (2018, December 6). One Belt, One Road, One Big Mistake. Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/12/06/bri-china-belt-road-initiative-blunder/
Hatton, C. (2021). China: Big spender or loan shark? BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-58679039
He, W. (2018). Opinion: BRI injects new energy into China-Angola cooperation. CGTN. https://news.cgtn.com/news/3d3d514f77557a4e7a457a6333566d54/share_p.html
Hillman, J. E. (2020). The Emperor’s New Road: China and the Project of the Century. Yale University Press.
Hong, C. (2021). Agricultural centers advance win-win BRI ties. China Daily. https://global.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202110/18/WS616cca16a310cdd39bc6f765.html
Hooi, A. (2019, May 26). Belt and Road set to “transform” global economy. China Daily. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201905/26/WS5cea60a7a3104842260bdcfd.html
Horn, S., Reinhart, C. M., & Trebesch, C. (2020, February 26). How Much Money Does the World Owe China? Harvard Business Review. https://hbr.org/2020/02/how-much- money-does-the-world-owe-china
Huang, M., Chen, N., & Chen, Y. (2016). An Analysis on the Potential Competitiveness of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Asia-Pacific Development Journal, 23(2).
Hurley, J., Morris, S., & Portelance, G. (2018). Examining the Debt Implications of the Belt and Road Initiative from a Policy Perspective. www.cgdev.org
87
Hussain, H. R. (2020). Sri Lanka-China ties to improve further with the Rajapaksas in power. CGTN. https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-08-11/Sri-Lanka-China-ties-to-improve- further-with-the-Rajapaksas-in-power-SRWPFCwIdG/index.html
International Federation of Red Cross And Red Crescent Societies. (2022). Mauritania: Food and Nutritional Insecurity - Final Report. https://reliefweb.int/report/mauritania/mauritania-food-and-nutritional-insecurity-final- report-appeal-mdrmr011
International Monetary Fund. (2020). Angola: Confronting the COVID-19 Pandemic and the Oil Price Shock. International Monetart Fund. https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/09/18/na-angola-confronting-the-covid-19- pandemic-and-the-oil-price-shock
Jaipragas, B. (2019). US naval base rumours in Sri Lanka spark alarm as Washington and Beijing tussle for influence in Indo-Pacific. The South China Morning Post. https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/3020308/us-naval-base-rumours- sri-lanka-spark-alarm-washington- and?module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article&campaign=3020308
Jiang, Y. (2019). Competitive partners in development financing: China and Japan expanding overseas infrastructure investment. The Pacific Review, 32(5), 778–808. https://doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2019.1569117
Karunungan, L., & Pollard, A. (2022). Sri Lanka Falls Into Default For The First Time Ever. Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-19/sri-lanka-enters- default-and-warns-inflation-may-surge-to-40
Kataria, S. (2022). Sri Lanka’s economic crisis dashes hopes for post COVID-19 tourism recovery. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/sri-lankas-economic- crisis-dashes-hopes-post-covid-19-tourism-recovery-2022-04-22/
Kaufmann, D., & Kraay, A. (2022). Worldwide Governance Indicators - Introduction. http://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/Home/Documents#doc-intro
Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., & Mastruzzi, M. (2010). The Worldwide Governance Indicators: Methodology and Analytical Issues. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 5430. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1682130
Lew, J. J., Roughead, G., Hillman, J., & Sacks, D. (2021). China’s Belt and Road Implications for the United States.
Lombardi, R. W. (1985). Debt Trap: Rethinking the Logic of Development. Praeger. 88
Luft, G. (2017, October 1). The Anatomy of the BRI’s Impact on US Interests. https://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep16785.7
Malik, A. A., Parks, B., Russell, B., Lin, J. J., Walsh, K., Solomon, K., Zhang, S., Elston, T.- B., & Goodman, S. (2021). Banking on the Belt and Road: Insights from a new global dataset of 13,427 Chinese development projects.
Marlow, I. (2018, April 18). China’s $1 Billion White Elephant. Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-17/china-s-1-billion-white-elephant- the-port-ships-don-t-use
Matsuda, Y. (2015). Cross-Strait Relations under the Ma Ying-jeou administration: From Economic to Political Dependence? Journal of Contemporary East Asia Studies, 4(2), 3–35. https://doi.org/10.1080/24761028.2015.11869083
Medina, A. (2021). The Completed China-Laos Railway: Bringing Opportunities for ASEAN and the Asia Pacific. https://www.aseanbriefing.com/news/the-completed-china-laos- railway/
Mohan, G. (2018, March 30). Europe’s Response to the Belt and Road Initiative. German Marshall Fund. https://www.gmfus.org/news/europes-response-belt-and-road-initiative
Morris, S. (2019). The Kunming-Vientiane Railway: The Economic, Procurement, Labor, and Safeguards Dimensions of a Chinese Belt and Road Project. https://www.cgdev.org/publication/kunming-vientiane-railway- economic-procurement- labor-and-safeguards-dimensions-chinese
Nedopil, C. (2021). Countries of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Green Finance & Development Center. https://greenfdc.org/countries-of-the-belt-and-road-initiative- bri/?cookie-state-change=1637040733620
Office of the Secretary of Defense. (2021). Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China.
Olingo, A. (2021). China loan binge starts to bite; the US, EU hope to gain from fallout. The EastAfrican. https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/china-loan-binge- bite-the-us-eu-hope-to-gain-from-fallout-3632760
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2021). General government debt. OECD. https://data.oecd.org/gga/general-government-debt.htm
Ouki, M. (2020). Mauritania – Senegal: an emerging new African gas province – is it still possible? The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
89
Padoan, P. C., Sila, U., & van den Noord, P. (2012). Avoiding Debt Traps: Fiscal consolidation, financial backstops and structural reforms. OECD Journal: Economic Studies, 2012(1).
Parfitt, T. W., & Riley, S. P. (1986). Africa in the Debt Trap: Which Way Out? The Journal of Modern African Studies, 24(3), 519–527. https://www.jstor.org/stable/160355
Payer, C. (1975). The Debt Trap: The International Monetary Fund and the Third World. Monthly Review Press.
Payne, J., & Zhdannikov, D. (2020). Exclusive: Angola cuts oil shipments to China as it seeks debt relief. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-angola-china-debt-oil-exclusive- idUSKBN23C1LY
Pettifor, A. (2000). Will ending debt bondage lead to democratic and economic self‐ determination for the people of Africa? Cambridge Review of International Affairs, 14(1), 135–148. https://doi.org/10.1080/09557570008400334
Philling, D. (2022). Europe seeks to reboot relationship with Africa. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/e9000149-f344-4d6f-9b53-586b8f49ca17
Pryke, J. (2020, March 2). China Is Not Conducting Debt Trap Diplomacy in the Pacific—At Least Not Yet. East-West Center. https://www.eastwestcenter.org/news-center/east-west- wire/china-not-conducting-debt-trap-diplomacy-in-the-pacific%E2%80%94-least-not- yet
Rahman, S. A. (2021, November 9). The BRI in Bangladesh: ‘Win-Win’ or a ‘Debt Trap’? The Diplomat. https://thediplomat.com/2021/11/the-bri-in-bangladesh-win-win-or-a- debt-trap/
Ramiah, S. (2021). Will Hambantota Port Become a Chinese Military Base? AIDIA. https://www.aidiaasia.org/research-article/will-hambantota-port-become-a-chinese- military-base
Rutherford, D. (2002). Routledge Dictionary of Economics (2nd edition) (Second edition, Issue 2). Routledge.
Sacks, D. (2021). Countries in China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Who’s In And Who’s Out. https://www.cfr.org/blog/countries-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-whos-and-whos-out
Sharma, B. P., & Khatri, R. S. (2019). The Politics of Soft Power: Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as Charm Influence in South Asia. China and the World, 02(01), 1950002. https://doi.org/10.1142/S2591729319500020
Sharma, S. D. (2010). China as the World’s Creditor and the United States as the World’s Debtor. China Perspectives, 2010(4). https://doi.org/10.4000/chinaperspectives.5346
90
Silk Road Briefing. (2018, November 1). Belt and Road and Airport Antarctica. Silk Road Briefing. https://www.silkroadbriefing.com/news/2018/10/31/belt-road-airport- antarctica/
Sims, K. (2020). The ADB and AIIB. In Rethinking Multilateralism in Foreign Aid (pp. 145– 159). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780367853808-10
Sims, K., & Cook, J. (2020, October 31). Laos set its own debt trap. East Asia Forum. Sokvy, R. (2020). Opinion: Cambodia’s Foreign Policy is Shaped by its Elites.
Cambodianess. https://cambodianess.com/article/opinion-cambodias-foreign-policy-is-
shaped-by-its-elites
Solability. (2021). The Governance Index. https://solability.com/the-global-sustainable-
competitiveness-index/the-index/governance-capital
Song, N. (2020). What China’s Belt And Road Initiative Means For Cambodia. US-China
Today. https://uschinatoday.org/features/2020/07/21/what-chinas-belt-and-road-
initiative-means-for-cambodia/
Tandon, Y. (2008). Ending Aid Dependence. Fahamu.
The Economic Times. (2018). Sri Lanka rejects US claims, says no Chinese military base at
port. The Economic Times. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/sri- lanka-rejects-us-claims-says-no-chinese-military-base-at- port/articleshow/66163389.cms?from=mdr
The Economic Times. (2021, October 3). China’s hidden debt, a major problem for borrowers. The Economic Times. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/chinas-hidden-debt- a-major-problem-for-borrowers/articleshow/86721802.cms
The World Bank. (2022a). Concessions Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) and Design-Build- Operate (DBO) Projects. The World Bank Group. https://ppp.worldbank.org/public- private-partnership/agreements/concessions-bots-dbos
The World Bank. (2022b). Gini index.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV .GINI?most_recent_value_desc=false
The World Bank. (2022c). GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$). https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GNP.PCAP.CD
The World Bank Group. (2018, March 29). Belt and Road Initiative. The World Bank. https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/regional-integration/brief/belt-and-road- initiative#01
91
United States Agency for International Development. (2011). Developing Commercially Viable Infrastructure Projects. In TCG International (Ed.), Developing Sustainable and Inclusive Urban Infrastructure Services.
Vines, A. (2020). China’s Southern Africa Debt Deals Reveal a Wider Plan. Chatham House. https://www.chathamhouse.org/2020/12/chinas-southern-africa-debt-deals-reveal-wider- plan
Xinhua. (2021a). China-Laos Railway starts operation. Xinhua. http://www.news.cn/english/2021-12/03/c_1310350441.htm
Xinhua. (2021b). Xi pledges enhanced relations with Laos, PRP. Xinhua. http://www.news.cn/english/2021-12/03/c_1310350473.htm
Xu, S., & Li, J. (2020). The Emergence and Fallacy of “China’s Debt-Trap Diplomacy” Narrative. China International Studies, 81, 69–84.
Yimer, N. A. (2021). How Djibouti Surrounded Itself by Military Bases. Politics Today. https://politicstoday.org/djibouti-surrounded-by-military-bases-of-china-us-france-uk- germany-others/
Zhu, Z. (2010). China’s New Diplomacy: Rationale, Strategies and Significance. Ashgate. |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
國際研究英語碩士學位學程(IMPIS)
109862016 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109862016 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| DOI: | 10.6814/NCCU202201021 |
| Appears in Collections: | [國際研究英語碩士學位學程] 學位論文
|
Files in This Item:
| File |
Description |
Size | Format | |
|---|
| 201601.pdf | | 1468Kb | Adobe PDF2 | 205 | View/Open |
|
All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.
|
