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| Title: | 電子商務對美國REITs市場的影響
The impact of e-commerce on the US REITs market |
| Authors: | 張芯菱
Chang, Hsin-Lin |
| Contributors: | 林左裕
Lin, Tso-Yu
張芯菱
Chang, Hsin-Lin |
| Keywords: | 電子商務
新冠肺炎
不動產投資信託
自我迴歸時間落差分配模型
E-commerce
COVID-19
REITs
ARDL Model |
| Date: | 2022 |
| Issue Date: | 2022-08-01 18:23:30 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 自網際網路越發普及及科技逐漸進步以來，人們的交易型態已有所改變，逐漸習慣利用電子商務進行購物，電子商務已形成一股趨勢，自從新冠肺炎於2019年底爆發以來，加速電子商務的成長，也影響不動產市場的不同行業。因此，本研究欲探討電子商務對於美國REITs市場的影響。首先本研究進行文獻回顧整理，並對於不同的REITs市場分別建立自我迴歸時間落差分配模型(ARDL Model)。
本研究之研究範圍為美國，採用的應變數包括工業、基礎設施及購物中心REITs市場的報酬率；自變數則包括通貨膨脹率、M1貨幣供給額、美國聯邦基金利率、S&P 500股價指數報酬率、國內生產毛額、電商銷售額占整體零售總額之比率及疫情虛擬變數
實證結果顯示同樣面臨COVID-19的風險，不同的不動產行業影響有所差異，疫情對於工業REITs市場為正向成長，對於基礎設施REITs市場未造成顯著影響，而對購物中心REITs市場則為負向影響。而逐漸興起的電子商務趨勢，引發對於倉儲物流、配送中心及電信塔等不動產需求上升，因此，工業、基礎設施REITs市場報酬率皆有所成長，而電子商務趨勢對於購物中心REITs市場則未如預期造成負面影響，顯示實體購物仍有其需求，並未完全為電子商務所取代。而美國聯準會(Fed)實施無限QE政策以來，市場資金充沛，因而M1貨幣供給額、S&P 500股價指數、國內生產毛額對於REITs市場造成正向顯著影響。然而，美國聯準會(Fed)長期實施貨幣寬鬆政策後也擠兌消費，因而發生「通貨膨脹的異象」，致使通貨膨脹率對於REITs市場皆未造成顯著影響。而美國聯邦基金利率對於REITs市場皆未造成顯著影響，顯示長期低利率政策的實施，亦未達到刺激經濟的作用。因而，未來政府制定相關政策，包括疫情、貨幣及財政等政策時，必須謹慎了解政策實施後之效果，並對於不同產業適時給予不同的補助，以因應衝擊。
The widespread use of Internet and the advancement of technology have brought changes to the transaction patterns of consumers. That is, people have grown accustomed to online shopping, making E-commerce gradually become the norm. Moreover, the outbreak of COVID-19 in late December 2019 has further fueled consumer E-commerce activity, which in turn has exerted influence on various sectors of the real estate market.
In response to this trend, this study aims at exploring the impacts brought by E-commerce on the REITs market in the U.S. Therefore, the literature review will be conducted first, followed by the ARDL models established for different REITs markets. In this study, the area of sampling is the U.S. Besides, reflecting the situations of the REITs market in the U.S, the dependent variables include the REITs market return from industries, infrastructure, and shopping malls. On the other hand, to indicate the economic impacts from E-commerce, the independent variables involve the inflation rate, M1 money supply, federal funds rate, S&P 500 index rate of return, gross domestic product, share of E-commerce to overall retail sales, and a pandemic dummy variable.
The empirical results suggest that even though faced with the same risk from the pandemic, different sectors of the real estate industry have bore dissimilar consequences. Firstly, the development of COVID-19 has been positively correlated to the industrial REITs market return, while that has been negatively correlated to the REITs market return from shopping mall. By contrast, no significant influence is found in the REITs market return from infrastructure. Secondly, in terms of the emerging E-commerce, it has boosted the demand for real estate establishment, such as warehousing and logistics, distribution centers, and telecommunications towers. The resulting development is the growth of the REITs market return from industries and infrastructure. However, inconsistent with our hypothesis, E-commerce has not yielded negative impacts on the REITs market return from shopping malls, which suggests that physical stores are still essential for retail.
In addition, due to the implementation of the unlimited QE policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), the funds for market have proved to be abundant. Therefore, the M1 money supply, S&P 500 index rate of return, and gross domestic product have been positively corelated to the REITs market return. Nevertheless, the long-term monetary easing policy adopted by Fed has made the actual consumption of goods and services decline, which results in the “inflation anomaly”. Hence, no significant impact is found from the inflation rate on the REITs market return. Lastly, the federal funds rate also has not made any significant influence on the REITs market return, indicating that the monetary policy in a lower long-term interest rate environment did not stimulate the economy as expected.
Therefore, this study concludes that policymakers in the future should take the potential results of implementation into consideration when formulating relevant policies, such as those responding to the pandemic, or monetary and fiscal changes. Additionally, it is also required for the government to provide timely financial subsidy to different industries, in order to cushion the blow from future crises or emergencies. |
| Reference: | 一、中文參考文獻
(一) 專書
林左裕，2015，『不動產投資管理』，臺北：智勝文化。
楊奕農，2009，『時間序列分析 經濟與財務上之應用』第二版，臺北:雙葉 書廊有限公司。
楊浩彥、郭迺鋒及林政勳，2013『實用財經計量方法 Eviews之應用』第二版，臺北：雙葉書廊有限公司。
(二) 期刊論文
陳佑瑄、林以白，2019，「美國貨幣寬鬆政策與資產價格的探討」，『統計與資訊評論』，19：93-112。
陳莛之、莊季錡，2015，「不動產投資信託基金與總體經濟因素關聯性之研究」，『華人經濟研究』，13(1)：189-206。
(三) 博、碩士論文
邱逸芬，2012，「不動產投資信託與直接不動產投資關係之探討」，國立政治大學地政學系碩士論文：台北。
詹健宗，2008，「不動產投資信託的影響因素—以美加為例」， 淡江大學財務金融學系碩士論文：台北。
(四) 報章及網路媒體
林左裕，2014，「加薪刺激消費 通貨緊縮解藥」，聯合報論壇，11月15日。
林左裕，2022，「戰爭是引發惡性通膨的最大風險」，好房網，3月1日。https://news.housefun.com.tw/tsoyulin/article/205058326850
林左裕，2022，「印鈔是過去，升息是未來」，好房網，2月8日。https://news.housefun.com.tw/tsoyulin/article/205058324737
二、英文參考文獻
(一) 專書
Striewe, N. C., 2016, “What Drives Institutions to Invest in ”, Corporate Governance of Real Estate Investment Trusts, Spinger.
(二) 期刊論文
Abay, K.A., Tafere, K., & Woldemichael, A., 2020, “Winners and Losers from COVID-19 Global Evidence from Google Search”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper：1-41.
Akinsomi, O., 2020, “How Resilient Are to a Pandemic？The COVID-19 Effect”, Journal of Property Investment and Finance, 39：19-24.
Alfano, V., & Ercolano, S., 2020, “The Efficacy of Lockdown Against COVID-19: A Cross-Country Panel Analysis”, Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, 18(4)：509–517.
Bakos, Y., 2001, “The Emerging Landscape for Retail E-Commerce”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15(1)：69-80.
Chao, C., Ping, Y., & Wang, Y., 2019, “The Smartphone Users Behavior for Mcommerce -An Empirical Study”, International Journal of Business, Humanities and Technology, 9(2)：41-47.
Conover, C.M., Jensen, G.R., & Johnson, R.R., 1999, “Monetary Environments and International Stock Returns”, Journal of Banking & Finanace, 23(9)：1357-1381.
Dixon, T., & Marston, A., 2002, “U.K. Retail Real Estate and the Effects of OnlineShopping”, Journal of Urban Technology, 9(3)：19-47.
Gholipour, H.F., Tajaddini, R., Farzanegan, M.R., & Yam, S., 2021, “Responses of Index and Commercial Property Prices to Economic Uncertainties: A VAR analysis”, Research in International Business and Finance, 58(5)：101457.
Granger, C.W.J., & Newbole, P., 1974 , “Spurious Regressions in Econometrics”, Journal of Econometrics , 2(2)：111-120.
Gupta, R., & Marfatia, H.A., 2018, “The Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks in the U.S. on Emerging Market ”, Journal of Real Estate Literature, 26(1)：175-188.
Hamzah, A., Yazid, M.F.M., & Shamsudin, M.F., 2020, “Post Covid-19: What Next for Real Estate Industrial Sector in Malaysia?”, Journal of Postgraduate Current Business Research, 1(1)：3-6.
Hashem, T.N., 2020, “Examining the Influence of COVID-19 Pandemic in Changing Customers` Orientation towards E-Shopping”, Modern Applied Science, 14(8)：59-76.
Karakuş, R., & Öksüz, S., 2021, “The Relationship between BIST Real Estate Investment Trusts Index and House Price Index, Interest Rate and Inflation: ARDL Bounds Testing Approach”, Business & Management Studies: An International Journal, 9(2)：751-764.
Kim, R.Y., 2020, “The Impact of COVID-19 on Consumers: Preparing for Digital Sales”, IEEE Engineering Management Review, 48(3)：212-218.
Kumar, C., 2018, “Study on E-Commerce and It’s Impact on Markets & Retailers : An Overview”, IJRAR-International Journal of Research and Analytical Reviews (IJRAR), 5(2)：112-116.
Li, J., & Lei, L., 2011, “Determinants and Information of REIT Pricing”, Applied Economics Letters, 18(15)：1501-1505.
Nanda, A., Xu, Y., & Zhang, F., 2021, “How would the COVID-19 Pandemic Reshape Retail Real Estate and High Streets through Acceleration of E-commerce and Digitalization？”, Journal of Urban Management, 10(2)：110-124.
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Rathi, M.S.R., & Bora, C., 2020, “Challenges Before E-commerce in COVID-19”, Mukt Shabd Journal, 34(33)：103-112.
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(三) 碩博士論文
Maina, G.k., 2021, “Effect of Macroeconomic Shocks on Returns”, Strathmore University.
Pasman, M., 2018, “What is the Effect of Quantitative Easing Policy on US Returns？”, University of Amsterdam.
(四) 研究報告
CBRE, 2021, “Global E-commerce Outlook”, Retrieved from CBRE Web：https://www.cbre.com/insights/reports/global-e-commerce-outlook-2021
OECD, 2020, “E-commerce in the times of COVID-19”, Retrieved from OECE Web：https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/e-commerce-in-the-time-of-covid-19-3a2b78e8/
S&P Global, 2017, “The Impact of Rising Interest Rates on ”, Retrieved from S&P Global Web：https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/research/the-impact-of-rising-interest-rates-on-.pdf
(五) 相關網站
Nareit：https://www.reit.com/what-reit
Government of Cananda：https://www.international.gc.ca/world-monde/international_relations-relations_internationales/wto-omc/electronic-commerce-electronique.aspx?lang=eng
Daa：https://www.daacap.com/supply-struggle-to-meet-demand-for-e-commerce-storage-space/
Digital Commerce 360：https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/article/e-commerce-sales-retail-sales-ten-year-review/
Prologis：https://www.prologis.com/news-research/global-insights/forever-altered-future-logistics-real-estate-demand |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
地政學系
109257017 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0109257017 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| DOI: | 10.6814/NCCU202201140 |
| Appears in Collections: | [地政學系] 學位論文
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