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    题名: 雙底冊電話調查的估計成效評估：以選前調查為例
    Comparisons of Estimation Efficiencies among Various Dual-frame Telephone Survey Weighting Procedures: A Study of Pre-election Polls
    作者: 洪永泰
    Hung, Yung-tai
    贡献者: 選舉研究
    关键词: 涵蓋率 ;唯手機族 ;雙底冊電話調查 ;事後分層組合估計 ;選舉預測 ;選樣偏誤 
    Coverage rate ;cell-phone only ;dual-frame telephone survey ;post-stratified estimating procedure ;selection bias ;election forecasting
    日期: 2021-11
    上传时间: 2022-04-11 11:21:52 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本文以近年來作者參與的調查研究探討雙底冊電話調查在台灣執行時衍生的諸多議題，包括一些已經解決和正在探索的部分成果，以及後續的努力方向。資料分析以調查結果和底牌（選舉投票結果）或類底牌（公民投票結果）的差距來驗證各種資料處理及估計方式的成效，並解釋雙底冊電話調查各種處理方式的利弊得失。資料分析首先提出雙底冊電話調查各種資料併檔方案的選擇，包括（一）住宅電話為主、手機為輔，（二）手機為主、住宅電話為輔，以及（三）兩個資料檔依據唯住宅電話、兩者都用、唯手機三個電話使用族群結構比例的估計併檔等。結果顯示，住宅電話和手機調查的樣本結構在基本人口特徵方面各有其系統性的偏差現象。在比對2016總統選舉、2018同婚公投、2020總統選舉等母體參數之後，本研究發現（一）住宅電話的原始資料估計成效最好。（二）依照戶籍資料加權之後，住宅電話資料反而惡化估計偏差，但是手機調查則估計成效略有改善。（三）手機調查受到「選樣偏誤」的影響，不但本身造成過度偏離母體參數的估計，還拖累和住宅電話併檔後的估計成效，使得雙底冊調查彌補涵蓋率缺失的善意功能得到「得不償失」的後果。本文也期望後續研究可以往（一）住宅電話和手機調查中「兩者都用族群」的異同，（二）住宅電話和手機調查的模式效應，及（三）雙底冊電話調查在選舉研究之外其他領域的應用成效等方向發展。
    This study looks into issues evolving from dual-frame telephone surveys carried out in Taiwan. Some issues have been resolved, while others are still being explored. Directions of future studies are also suggested. This study employs indicators of election prediction errors to evaluate the effectiveness and pros and cons of various estimation procedures for combining data sets collected from dual-frame telephone surveys. There are basically three types of combining dual-frame survey data, namely, all landline survey data plus those of cell-phone only; all cell-phone survey data plus those of landline only, and combing both sets of data according to their coverage proportions in the population. This study shows that the landline phone survey samples differ systematically from the cell-phone survey samples in many demographical characteristics. Using a total predicting error indicator to compare the results of various estimation procedures in three election results, namely, the 2016 presidential election, the 2018 referendum on the same-sex marriage law, and the 2020 presidential election, this study finds the following: (1) The original data collected from the landline survey fares the best. (2) Adjusting data by applying weights derived from government household registration data enlarges the prediction errors for the land-line phone survey but performs slightly better for the cell-phone survey. (3) Due to selection bias from cell-phone survey samples, the prediction errors tend to be further away from the true election results. The damage done does not redeem its good intention for correcting the coverage shortcomings caused by the traditional landline phone survey. The study also suggests several issues to be explored in future studies: (1) Investigate further the characteristics of using both landline and cell-phone samples for landline and cell-phone surveys. (2) Investigate the mode effects on landline and cell-phone surveys. (3) Investigate the performance of dual-frame telephone surveys in areas other than electoral studies.
    關聯: 選舉研究, 28(2), 95-125
    数据类型: article
    DOI 連結: https://doi.org/10.6612/tjes.202111_28(2).0003
    DOI: 10.6612/tjes.202111_28(2).0003
    显示于类别:[選舉研究 TSSCI] 期刊論文

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