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    题名: 候選人臉書經營和選舉結果之關聯分析：以2016年區域立法委員選舉為例
    Taiwan 2016: How Political Candidates` Adoption of Facebook Fan Pages and Interaction with Supporters Relate to Election Outcomes
    作者: 莊伯仲
    Chuang, Po-chung
    金志聿
    Chin, Chih-yu
    贡献者: 選舉研究
    关键词: 立委選舉 ; 社群媒體 ; 按讚 ; 臉書 ; 網路選戰 
    legislator election ; social media ; Facebook likes ; fan page ; online campaign
    日期: 2019-05
    上传时间: 2020-11-19 11:43:18 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 隨著社群媒體融入吾人生活，成為粉絲、按讚這類網路行為已被證實與實體行動間存在關聯，因此透過候選人臉書的大數據來預測選舉結果，便成為新興研究主題。本文分析2016年區域立委選舉中354位候選人的粉絲專頁經營狀況，發現是否運用臉書與選舉勝敗有顯著關聯，實質經營者36.8%當選立委，無臉書或未實質經營者則僅1.2%。更重要的是，候選人的貼文按讚總數與得票數呈現低度正相關，註冊粉絲數與得票數更達中度正相關，因此兩者均可據以探討勝選關聯性。而本研究建構一初步模型「淨粉絲對比率」，整合候選人按讚數與粉絲數，並排除與同選區對手的無意義重疊粉絲和重複按讚，具有一定推估能力，對全國當選席位的預估準確率有81.5%（72席中59席），在六都更達87.9%（48席中42席）。而這也意味臉書選戰的重要性，以及專業經營的必要性。
    The adoption of social media in political marketing has grown dramatically over the past ten years, as it creates two-way communication that stimulates and fosters candidates` relationships with voters. However, can the count of ＂supporters＂ and ＂likes＂ recorded on the Facebook page of a candidate predict whether he/she will win the elections or not? In view of this, predicting an electoral outcome using ＂big＂ social media data is a new research topic that has emerged due to the exponential growth of social media. This study examines the extent to which political candidates` use of Facebook fan pages and interaction with their supporters are related to the election outcomes (vote share and election success) of Taiwan`s 2016 legislator election campaign. Facebook data were acquired for all 354 candidates. The findings indicate: a candidate`s Facebook presence is related to his/her election outcomes. Positive correlations were also observed to exist between the numbers of supporters/likes candidates secured on their official fan pages and their popular vote share. Moreover, the ＂net-fans ratio＂ preliminary model, based on a candidate`s likes/supporters and excluding those repeated with respective opponents, has an explanatory power to forecast regional legislators` election outcome with 81.5% accuracy of all the seats, and with 87.9% accuracy of the seats of 6 major municipalities. Hence, Facebook data could be a significant indicator of electoral success.
    關聯: 選舉研究, 26(1), 89-121
    数据类型: article
    DOI 連結: https://doi.org/10.6612/tjes.201905_26(1).0004
    DOI: 10.6612/tjes.201905_26(1).0004
    显示于类别:[選舉研究 TSSCI] 期刊論文

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