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| Title: | 新創獨角獸的評價與挑戰：以優步公司為例
Operational Challenges and Valuation of Unicorn Startups: Case Study of Uber Technology, Inc. |
| Authors: | 黃俊豪
Wong, Chon-Hou |
| Contributors: | 吳啟銘
Wu, Chi-Ming
黃俊豪
Wong, Chon-Hou |
| Keywords: | 獨角獸
企業評價 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| Issue Date: | 2020-09-02 13:15:57 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 獨角獸公司指的是外界估值超過10億美元的公司，近年的獨角獸公司數量越來越多，且紛紛走向上市，但往往上市後股價往表現不佳，顯示存在上市前估值過高的問題。造成發行價格高估原因是否為估值方法或類似公司選擇有誤？又或是由於投資銀行對公司未來營運績效高估造成？傳統DCF Method估值模型依賴自由現金流為正且必須穩定及可預測，這種評價方法是否適用於上市時通常仍處於虧損、負自由現金流的新創公司？
本研究以知名獨角獸，全球最大叫車平台優步公司上市為個案作觀察，分析公司外部環境及內部營運表現後作出情境假設，評估公司轉虧為盈的可能性，並參考投行報告對未來財務績效的預估，嘗試驗證更精準的估值方法，並可得出兩個重點：
一、DCF method導入價值驅動因子，結合企業分析得出的未來營運情境假設下，並評估公司轉虧為盈的可能性，將評價結果與實務上投資銀行常用的倍數法評價比較後，顯示DCF Method更準確計算股權價值。同時本研究透過公司上市後的實際財務表現對模型作出盈餘預期修正，發現較原本的計算結果更加貼近真實股價表現，進一步驗證此模型的可行性。
二、由於評價方法的簡易性，投資銀行傾向使用倍數法，但對於上市時仍處於虧損的公司來說，倍數法忽略了公司上市時的負自由現金流及融資壓力，且在挑選類似公司容易出現選擇偏誤，因而較收益法易造成誤差。本研究認為若投資人以倍數法評價公司時，選擇的類似公司應聚焦於商業模式本質類似的公司，而非選擇大量電商型或網路型公司，雖然導致類似公司數量減少，但計算結果也更貼近真實股價。
A unicorn company refers to a private company with a valuation of more than US$1 billion. Because start-up companies have a high failure rate, companies that can survive and obtain such high valuations are quite rare, so they are called "unicorns" in the venture capital industry. However, the number of unicorn companies has increased and gone public in recent years, and their stock prices have often underperformed after listing, indicating that there is a problem of overvalued before listing. Is the issue price ovepricing caused by the wrong valuation method? Or is it caused by investment banks overestimating the company`s future operating performance? On the other hand, the traditional DCF Method valuation model relies on positive free cash flow and must be stable and predictable. Is DCF method suitable for startups valuation that are still losing money and with negative free cash flow when they go public?
This study observed the listing of Uber, a well-known unicorn and the world’s largest ride-hailing platform, as a case study. After analyzing the company’s external environment and internal operating performance, the study built up scenario assumptions and made reference to the investment bank’s report on its future financial performance estimates, trying to verify if DCF method is a more accurate valuation method, and finally put forward operating recommendations on maximizing enterprise value. The study could be summarized as two key points:
1. The study introduced several value driving factors to the DCF method and compares it with the comparables companies’ multiple method which commonly used by investment banks in practice. The results shown that the DCF Method calculates equity value more accurately. At the same time, this study used the actual financial performance of the company for earning revision of the model, and found that the calculation results are closer to the real stock price performance than the original calculation results, further verifying the feasibility of this model.
2. Due to the simplicity of the evaluation method, investment banks tend to use the comparable companies’ multiple method. This study believed that when choosing comparable companies of a unicorn company, we should focus on companies with similar business models and natures instead of choosing a large number of e-commerce or online companies. Though the number of comparables is reduced, the calculation result is closer to the real stock price performance. |
| Reference: | 1. 吳啟銘，(2010)。企業評價：個案實證分析。台北市：智勝文化事業。
2. 中國IT研究中心，(2016)。2016年Q1中國專車市場研究報告
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19. Welcome to The Unicorn Club: Learning from Billion-Dollar Startups. Retrieved November 3, 2013, from: https://techcrunch.com/2013/11/02/welcome-to-the-unicorn-club/ |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
企業管理研究所(MBA學位學程)
106363118 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106363118 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| DOI: | 10.6814/NCCU202001521 |
| Appears in Collections: | [企業管理研究所（MBA學位學程）] 學位論文
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