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| Title: | 政治衝突對雙邊貿易之影響─以釣魚台事件為例
The Impact of Political Conflicts on Bilateral Trade─Taking Diaoyu Island for Example |
| Authors: | 黃千芳
Huang, Chian-Fang |
| Contributors: | 胡偉民
彭喜樞
Hu, Wei-Min
Peng, Shi-Shu
黃千芳
Huang, Chian-Fang |
| Keywords: | 雙重差分法
三重差分法
釣魚台事件
國際商品統一分類
DID method
DDD method
Diaoyu Island
Harmonized System Code |
| Date: | 2020 |
| Issue Date: | 2020-08-03 18:14:05 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本文依2001~2006年和2010~2014年中國進出口資料和聯合國提供等貿易資料，採用雙重差分法 (Difference in differences, DID) 和三重差分法(Difference in differences in differences, DDD)，檢驗發生於2005年2月和2012年9月釣魚台島歸屬之政治衝突事件，對中國自日本進口財貨之進口額成長率的影響。
本文在財貨上先選擇觀察國際商品統一分類 (HS code) 四位碼中的3304 (美容或化妝品及護膚品)、8703 (載人用機動車輛) 和9006 (照相機和閃光燈裝置及閃光燈泡)。有別於以往文獻，本文再擴大選取到HS code六位碼，進一步區分成中間財、資本財和消費財；並以季度為單位檢視在雙重差分法和三重差分法下效果的差異。
在雙重差分法的分析中，發現釣魚台島事件對於各類財貨之進口額成長率所造成的衝擊，在影響程度與和衝擊發酵的期間皆有差異，迴歸後之係數出現正、負和不顯著結果；進一步採用三重差分法，檢驗消費性財貨相對於其他財貨類別之進口額成長率在事件相關期間的影響，並由迴歸結果中部分之係數顯著為負，期間多在事件發生後半年內，顯示可能有滯後的效果，本文推測與財貨之訂單生成或財貨之生產、營業週期有關。
不論是雙重差分法或三重差分法的估計結果，2012年9月發生的衝突事件較2005年2月衝突事件影響較劇、受影響之財貨種類較廣、影響期間也較久。此外，本研究也調整了納入控制組的國家以檢視上述結果的穩健性，與可能的進口替代效果。
Based on China`s import and export data and trade data provided by the United Nations from 2001 to 2006 and 2010 to 2014, this study uses the double-difference (DID) and triple-difference (DDD) methods to test the impact of political conflicts over Diaoyu Island in February 2005 and September 2012 on the growth rate of China`s imports of goods from Japan.
In this study, HS code 3304, 8703 and 9006 are selected and observed first. Different from previous literatures, this study further divides goods into intermediate goods, capital goods and consumption goods. The difference between the results of the double-difference and the triple-difference is examined in the unit of quarter.
In the analysis of the double-difference, it was found that the impact of the conflicts on the growth rate of goods’ imports was different in the degree and period. In the analysis of triple-difference, This study examines the influence of the import growth rate of consumer goods relative to other types of goods. The coefficient of some results is significantly negative, mostly within half a year after the conflict, indicating that there may be a lagging effect, which is implied to be related to the good-orders or the production and business cycle of goods.
No matter the estimation results of the double-difference or the triple- difference, the conflict in September 2012 has a more severe impact than the conflict in February 2005, with a wider range of goods affected and a longer impact period. In addition, this study also adjusted the countries included in the control group to examine the robustness of the above results and the possible import substitution effects. |
| Reference: | 英文部分
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[2] Armstrong S. P., (2012). The Politics of Japan–China Trade and the Role of the World Trade System. The World Economy, 35(9), 1102–1120.
[3] Chavis L. and Leslie P., (2009). Consumer boycotts：The impact of the Iraq war on French wine sales in the U.S.NBER Working Papers,7(1), 37–67.
[4] Clerides S.P. Davis and A. Michis, (2015). National sentiment and consumer choice：The Iraq war and sales of US products in Arab countries. Scandinavian Journal of Economics,117(3),829–851.
[5] Davis C.L. and Meunier S., (2011). Business as Usual？Economic Responses to Political Tensions. American Journal of Political Science,55(3), 628–646.
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[8] Glick R and Taylor A.M., (2010). Collateral damage：Trade disruption and the economic impact of war. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 92(1), 102–127.
[9] Heilmann K.,(2016). Does political conflict hurt trade? Evidence from consumer boycotts. Journal of International Economics, 99, 179–191.
[10] Kastner S.L.,(2007). When Do Conflicting Political Relations Affect International Trade？ Journal of Conflict Resolution,51(4), 664–688.
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[12] Reuveny R.,(2001). Bilateral Import, Export, and Conflict / Cooperation Simultaneity. International Studies Quarterly, 45, 131–158.
[13] Reuveny R and Kang H., (2003). A Simultaneous-Equations Model of Trade, Conflict and Cooperation. Review of International Economics, 11, 279–295.
[14] Yuan Yang and Min Tang (2014). Do political tensions take a toll? The effect of the Sino-Japan relationship on sales of Japanese-brand cars in China. Asian Business & Management,13, 359–378.
中文部分
[1] 王亦杰 (2017)，「中國與主要大國雙邊關係演變對其雙邊貿易的影響─基於引力模型的研究」。北京外國語大學，國際組織學院。
[2] 王利群 (2018)，「政治衝突對中國雙邊貿易的影響研究」。 江西財經大學，國際經貿學院。
[3] 杜映昕 (2015)，「國家間政治衝突對貿易的影響─文獻綜述及基於中國與大國關係的實證硏究」，《經濟學報》，2(1)，124－144。
[4] 周泳宏和王璐 (2019)，「國際政治衝突對貿易的影響分析─以中日關係為例」，《中國經濟問題》，3(314)，54－67。
[5] 周泳宏和譚海泉 (2015)，「『抵制日貨』有效嗎？─來自汽車銷貨市場的證據」，《經濟學報》，4(3)，108－126。
[6] 胡偉民、洪燦輝和陳立中 (2010)，「北京奧運期間抵制法貨運動對中國境內合資企業產法國品牌汽車銷售量的影響估計」，《世界經濟文匯》，6，79－91。
[7] 孫聰和陳誠 (2017)，「衝突對貿易的動態影響機制研究綜述」，《河南社會科學》，25(7)，86－91。
[8] 徐奇淵和陳思翀 (2014)，「中日關係緊張對雙邊貿易的影響」，《國際政治科學》，1(37)，1－23。
[9] 張博欽 (2014)，「論中、日、台、韓之逐鹿東協市場」，《臺灣經濟研究月刊》，37 (2)，88－97。
[10] 楊攻研和劉洪鐘 (2015)，「政治關係、經濟權力與貿易往來:來自東亞的證據」，《世界經濟與政治》，110－130。
[11] 翟凱霞 (2017)，「國家間政治關係對國際貿易的影響─基於中國與11國 政治關係的實證硏究」。北京外國語大學，國際商學院。
[12] 蔡潔、馬燕和劉曼曼 (2016)，「中日『政冷』與『經熱』相互影響的實證研究」，《科技創業月刊》，14，28－31。 |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
107255010 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107255010 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| DOI: | 10.6814/NCCU202000995 |
| Appears in Collections: | [財政學系] 學位論文
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