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    Title: 跨市場金融指標影響航運金融之外溢效果-以中美貿易戰衝擊為例
    Cross-market financial indicators for affecting the spillover effect of shipping finance: Case of Impact on the U.S.-China trade war
    Authors: 滕樹彤
    Teng, Shu-Tung
    Contributors: 林靖
    陳心蘋
    Lin, Ching
    Chen, Hsin-Ping
    滕樹彤
    Teng, Shu-Tung
    Keywords: 外溢效果
    GARCH-MIDAS
    傳遞熵
    波羅的海船運指數
    石油
    農產品
    黃豆期貨
    布蘭特原油
    匯率市場
    原物料市場
    S&P鋼鐵指數
    中美貿易戰
    波動性
    spillover effect
    GARCH-MIDAS
    transfer entropy
    Baltic shipping index
    agricultural products
    soybean futures
    Brent crude oil
    exchange rate market
    raw material market
    S&P steel index
    China-US trade war
    volatility
    Date: 2020
    Issue Date: 2020-08-03 18:12:51 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本研究使用 GARCH-MIDAS 模型以及傳遞熵對 2008 年 1 月 11 日至 2020 年 4 月 30 日的數據集進行了檢驗，分析了波羅的海乾散貨指數對商品期貨、匯率、股票、原油市場的外溢效果，結果顯示出波羅的海乾散貨指數外溢效果隨期 間而有所變化。波羅的海乾散貨指數的外溢效果在全樣本時期影響不顯著，但我 們在 2018 年後發生的中美貿易戰中卻產生格外顯著的關係。我們可以推斷波羅 的海乾散貨指數在金融商品市場中為短期指標而非長期指標，特別是在對經濟有 重大衝擊的事件上。此外，航運市場與匯率、農產品、原油等市場之間有著顯著 的關聯，由於船運運載的商品包括原油、農產品等皆是與美元為計價方式，美元 升值可能會導致商品價格下跌，這種匯率市場與期貨市場之間的影響揭示了金融 傳導之間的聯繫。目前現有文獻中，有關於船運市場與金融商品市場之間的文章 少之又少，本研究旨在希望透過實證研究，為波羅的海乾散貨指數對匯率、農產 品和原油期貨等市場的外溢效果提供更有力的證據。為了檢測各市場中彼此造成的波動性強烈，本研究選擇以下八個資料變數:波羅的海乾散貨運價指數、美元 指數、標普高盛商品指數、黃豆期貨、布蘭特原油期貨、調整過後的道瓊全球航 運指數、S&P 鋼鐵指數、全球碳指數。我們運用這幾種變數的月波動率對日報酬 率進行回測，來觀察彼此之間是否有外溢效果的產生，本文采用 GARCH-MIDAS 模型來測量日月波動度的影響，可以為投資者在日後的經濟衝擊影響事件中提供 有用的資訊，並作出合適的決策。
    This study uses the GARCH-MIDAS model and transfer entropy to test the data set from January 11, 2008 to April 30, 2020, and analyzes the spillover of the Baltic dry bulk index to commodity futures, exchange rates, stocks, and crude oil markets The results show that the spillover effect of the Baltic Dry Bulk Index varies with the period. The spillover effect of the Baltic Dry Index was not significant during the entire sample period, but we have had a particularly significant relationship in the China-US trade war that occurred after 2018. We can infer that the Baltic Dry Index is a short-term indicator rather than a long-term indicator in the financial commodity market, especially in events that have a major impact on the economy.At present, there are very few articles on the relationship between the shipping market and the financial commodity market in the existing literature. This research aims to provide stronger evidence on the spillover effect of the Baltic Dry Index on exchange rates, agricultural products and crude oil futures through an empirical study . In order to detect the strong volatility caused by each other in each market . We use the monthly volatility of these variables to back-test the daily rate of return to observe whether there is a spillover effect between each other. This article uses the GARCH-MIDAS model to measure the impact of daily and monthly volatility, which can provide investors useful information and make appropriate decisions during future economic shocks.
    Reference: 一、 中文部分
    1. 林宏銘 (2010)，「美元、股票市場、債券市場及商品市場之互動關係研究」， 國立成功大學財務金融研究所碩士論文。
    2. 陳玉樹 (2011)，「原物料指數與股市、匯市之關聯性的研究」，國立政治大學金融研究所碩士論文。
    3. 張瀞之、劉錫謙 (2012)，「時間序列方法探討波羅的海綜合運價指數與運 輸類股之研究─以美國與臺灣為研究對象」，台灣銀行季刊，第六十一卷 第二期，頁 191∼207。

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    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    經濟學系
    107258035
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0107258035
    Data Type: thesis
    DOI: 10.6814/NCCU202001108
    Appears in Collections:[Department of Economics] Theses

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