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政大典藏 > College of Commerce > Department of International Business > Periodical Articles > Item 140.119/129873

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/129873

Title:	Investigating the Inefficiency of the CBO`s Budgetary Projections
Authors:	荒井夏來 Natsuki Arai
Contributors:	國貿系
Keywords:	Congressional budget office;Forecast evaluation;Conditional forecasts;Economic projections;Survey of professional forecasters
Date:	2019-12
Issue Date:	2020-05-26 13:44:28 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	This paper evaluates the efficiency of budgetary projections issued by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) from 1984 to 2016 and investigates the cause of their inefficiency. The efficiency of both its budgetary and macroeconomic projections is rejected in many cases, especially for revenue projections. A comparison of forecast evaluations suggests that the inefficiency of revenue projections is likely due to the inefficiency of the underlying macroeconomic projections. By adjusting budgetary projections by the CBO in real time using macroeconomic forecasts by the Survey of Professional Forecasters, the accuracy of the former projections can be significantly improved in some cases, by up to 26% in terms of the root-mean-square prediction error.
Relation:	International Journal of Forecasting,
Data Type:	article
DOI link:	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.12.008
DOI:	10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.12.008
Appears in Collections:	[Department of International Business] Periodical Articles

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