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| Title: | 地方政府財政的自力更生或仰人鼻息？ 臺灣地方政府自籌財源比影響因素之實證研究
The Self-reliance or Dependence on the Central Government of Local Governments’ Finance? An Empirical Study of Elements Influencing the Self-financing Ratios of Taiwan’s Local Governments |
| Authors: | 謝丞堯
Hsieh, Cheng-Yao |
| Contributors: | 黃東益
Huang, Tong-Yi
謝丞堯
Hsieh, Cheng-Yao |
| Keywords: | 地方政府財政
財政自主
自籌財源
集群分析
線性迴歸模型
Local Government Finance
Local Fiscal Autonomy
Self-financing Resources
Cluster Analysis
Simple Linear Regression |
| Date: | 2019 |
| Issue Date: | 2020-03-02 11:19:29 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 地方政府在提供各項服務的同時，能否自我負責而達到財政自主（Local fiscal autonomy）的目標？抑或是在很大程度執行業務上僅能仰賴中央的補助以及協助？本文透過「地方政府自籌財源比」做為衡量指標，探討各地方政府財政自主在2011年至2017年之發展趨勢、類型以及可能的影響因素。
本研究主要分為三個部分對研究主題進行探討：第一部分主要透過繪製各縣市自2011年起地方自籌財源比之時間趨勢圖進行分析；研究發現各地方政府地方自籌財源比之趨勢圖在年度的分布上經常在2014年前後出現變化，趨勢圖類型並未按照「縣市」、「直轄市」分布而具有因地制宜之表現，且財政惡化情形已不若過去嚴重。
第二部分則透過選取戶籍人口數、地方自籌財源比、都市地價指數以及融資需求四個變數進行集群分析，本文先透過階層集群分析法（Hierarchical cluster analysis）並選擇歐式距離平方法決定適合之組數，最終透過K-mean快速集群法呈現結果；研究結果顯示，若縣市具有較強烈的融資需求則位於「舉債組」，「自力更生組」之都市特色往往規模不大、融資需求不多但仍保有一定程度的財政自主，「仰人鼻息組」則普遍規模小、地方自籌財源比小且具有融資需求，而「優化組」之縣市則具備負向之融資需求，顯示該地方政府清償部分債務。
第三部分則選取戶籍人口數、地方產業營利事業銷售額、平均每戶可支配所得、都市地價指數、機動車輛登記數、不動產移轉面積以及融資需求共7個變數作為自變數，同時以地方政府自籌財源比作為依變數進行迴歸分析，探討影響地方自籌財源比的因素；研究結果顯示僅有平均每戶可支配所得對地方自籌財源比具有正向之影響。
基於上述之研究成果，在我國現行之地方財政自治制度下，建議建立更完善的地方財政自我負責之激勵機制，同時中央政府在地方政府進行舉債時扮演更積極的監督角色，避免地方政府面臨債務風險，最後建議地方政府及議會針對轄區內較大支出的部份開徵相關的稅收或提高稅率，甚至在必要時進行減稅，以促進地方財政自治的落實。
Can Taiwan’s local governments be responsible for achieving the goal of fiscal autonomy or just to rely on the central governments’ subsidies and assistance while providing services? To answer these questions, this thesis aims at analyzing Taiwan’s local governments’ fiscal autonomy, and uses “self-financing resources ratio” as a measure to explore its trends, types of local fiscal finance, and potential factors to local governments’ fiscal autonomy from 2011 to 2017.
The research is mainly divided into three parts to discuss the research theme. The first part mainly analyzes the trend of the self-financing resources ratio after 2011. Compared with the trend chart between the local governments, different types of the trend charts do not follow the distribution of "counties" and "municipalities" and have performances tailored to local conditions; besides, the distribution of self-financing resources ratio often changes around 2014 and the overall situation of fiscal deterioration is not as deplorable as it used to be.
In the second part, cluster analysis is performed by selecting four variables: population, local self-financing source ratio, urban land price index, and fiscal demand. We first process hierarchical cluster analysis and determine the appropriate group size by squared Euclidian distance method, and then develop “optimal” cluster solutions by the K-mean method. The results show that if a county or a city has strong fiscal demand, it is located in the "Debt financing group", while the characteristics of the members of "Self-reliance group" are often small-scale, little fiscal needing and keeping fiscal autonomy. The "Dependency group" is generally small in scale, the self-financing source ratio is low and has fiscal needs, which imply those counties in the group are fiscal dependence. Last but not least, cities in "Optimization group" have negative fiscal needs, indicating that the local government is paying off its debt.
The third part selects 7 variables as independent variables, include population, profit-seeking enterprise sales amount, average disposable income per household, urban land price index, motor vehicle registrations, real estate transfer area size, and fiscal needs. The local government’s self-financing source ratio is used as a dependent variable for regression analysis to explore the factors affecting the local self-financing source ratio. The results show that only the average disposable income of each household has a positive impact on the local self-financing source ratio.
Based on the above research results, under the current system in Taiwan, it is proposed to establish a complete mechanism for motivating local governments become fiscal self-responsibility. At the same time, we suggest central government can play a more active role in monitoring the local government`s debt to prevent local governments from over-indebtedness. Finally, it is suggested that local governments and councils levy relevant taxes or raise the tax rates for the financial resources of additional expenditures in their jurisdictions, and even reduce taxes when the expenditures are decreased to promote the implementation of local fiscal autonomy. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
公共行政學系
105256001 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0105256001 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| DOI: | 10.6814/NCCU202000155 |
| Appears in Collections: | [公共行政學系] 學位論文
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