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| Title: | 房價與婚育決策之關聯
The impact of house price on marry and fertility decisions |
| Authors: | 林雅葶
Lin, Ya-Ting |
| Contributors: | 連賢明
林雅葶
Lin, Ya-Ting |
| Keywords: | 房價
房屋持有
結婚
生育
House price
Homeownership
Marry Decisions
Fertility Decisions |
| Date: | 2019 |
| Issue Date: | 2019-10-03 17:20:49 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本研究利用財政部財政資訊中心之稅務資料，分析房價對未婚個人結婚決策及已婚女性家庭生育決策的影響，並檢視房屋持有與否的差異。本文使用房屋持有之工具變數以最小平方法（OLS）進行分析，實證結果顯示，房價變動率的提高對適婚年齡個人之結婚機率有顯著負向的影響，加劇晚婚的現象；同時，男性房屋持有者相較沒有房屋者更有可能結婚，女性房屋持有者的結婚機率則較沒有房屋者低。對婚後三年內的夫妻而言，房價變動率的變動與生育機率之關聯亦是負向的，且婚前提早開始持有房屋的家庭相較於沒有房屋者更願意生育。另一方面，結婚當年的房價變動率對婚後生育子女數有負向的影響，住房成本提高帶來的相對衝擊感可能使夫妻降低其期望子女數。
結婚買房通常密不可分，年輕人為了買房更有可能延後結婚生子，甚至買不起房就不結婚，進而導致整體生育率的下降。政府應藉由將房價控制在合理範圍內，或是提出降低住房負擔的相關政策，以協助年輕人成家，進而改善低生育率的問題。
This study uses taxation data from 2008 to 2014 to analyze the impact of housing prices on marriage decisions and fertility decisions, and to examine the differences in whether hold a house or not. We use the Ordinary Least Squares method (OLS) analysis. The empirical results show that the increase in house price change rate has a significant negative impact on the marriage rate. On the other hand, male homeowners are more likely to marry than those without homes, and female homeowners have a lower chance of marriage. For women within three years after marriage, the relationship between house price change rate and fertility rate is also negative, and families who hold houses are more willing to give birth than those who do not. Meanwhile, the rate of house price change in the year of marriage has a negative impact on the number of children born after marriage. Marriage and homeownership are often inseparable in Taiwan. People are more likely to delay marriage and have children in order to buy a house. They will not get married until they can afford a house, which will lead to a decline in the fertility rate. It will be important for government to propose policies which can reduce housing burdens, thereby improving the problem of low fertility rate. |
| Reference: | 參考文獻
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
財政學系
106255013 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106255013 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| DOI: | 10.6814/NCCU201901180 |
| Appears in Collections: | [財政學系] 學位論文
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