Loading...
|
Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/125037
|
| Title: | 中國作為緬甸和平進程之第三方調解者的角色
China’s Role as a Third-Party Mediator in Myanmar’s Peace Process |
| Authors: | 白瑞明
Pagnucco, Raymond |
| Contributors: | 黃奎博
Huang, Kwei-Bo
白瑞明
Raymond Pagnucco |
| Keywords: | 緬甸
中國
和平進程
局內人－偏袒模型
局外人－中立模型
Myanmar
China
Peace process
Insider-Partial Model
Outsider-Neutral Model |
| Date: | 2019 |
| Issue Date: | 2019-08-07 17:06:19 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 自從緬甸總統登盛上任後，開始制定一份包容各方的「全國停火協議」，世界各國際機構與聯合國也堅定不移地加入支持緬甸的和平。然而，五年過後，花費了數百萬美元的捐助資金，目前21個民族地方武裝團體卻只有10個同意簽署加入，翁山蘇姬與全國民主聯盟領導的和平進程似乎幾近於失敗了。與此同時，相較於大多數國際機構逐漸消失的影響力，中國在緬甸和平進程中的第三方協調角色，卻愈見突出。本研究試圖利用現實主義與中國在緬甸所佈局的地緣政治與經濟戰略，其中涵蓋中國南部邊境的和平穩定考量等關鍵議題，分析何以中國能在緬甸和平進程中扮演如此成功的第三方協調角色。相較於其他國際機構與聯合國的協調失靈，中國採用多層級的參與策略，針對利害關係人甚至緬甸一般民眾，展現其在緬甸和平進程中的突出影響力。本研究同時利用“局內人－偏袒模型” （Insider-Partial Model）與“局外人－中立模型” （Outsider-Neutral Model）來分析中國在緬甸所發揮的第三方協調角色。本研究發現，由於中國與緬甸長久以來的歷史、文化與經濟連結，以及中國西南邊境與各民族地方武裝團體長期關係，使得中國扮演著局內人－偏袒的協調者角色。事實上，中國在緬甸和平進程中扮演一個獨特的角色，它是部分協調和部分利害相關人的角色，它視自己的利益優先於解決緬甸70年來的國內衝突。在本研究完成之時，中國仍尚未成功地說服大多數地方武裝團體簽署停火協議。
Since the beginning of Thein Sein’s ambitious plan to create an all-inclusive National Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), the international community and the United Nations has been steadfast in its support for peace in Myanmar. Now, five years later, with millions of dollars of donor money spent, only 10 of the current 21 ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) signing the NCA. The peace process lead by Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD appears to have all but failed. Meanwhile, the international community has seemingly withered into the background as China assumed the leading role as a third-party mediator in Myanmar’s peace process. This study looks at why has China been successful at filling the role of a third-party mediator in Myanmar’s peace process by examining Beijing’s geopolitical, geostrategic, domestic, and economic strategies in Myanmar, including China’s need to see stability along its southern border. China’s use of a multi-layered engagement strategy that targets not just stakeholders but the civilian population of Myanmar, has made China’s influence in the peace process more salient than that of international community and the UN. Furthermore, this study investigates the two leading mediation models the “Insider-Partial Model” and the “Outsider-Neutral Model” to understand what kind of mediator China is and which role China inhabits. The findings suggest China fits the “Insider-Partial Model” due to historical, cultural, and economic linkages with Myanmar, as well as China’s long-standing relationship with the EAOs along its southern border. In fact, China inhabits a unique role that is part mediator and part stakeholder, who own self-interests seem to take precedence over solving 70 years of intra-state conflict in Myanmar. At the time this study was written, China still has yet to successful bring the non-signatories closer to signing the NCA. |
| Reference: | Books
Bercovitch, Jacob, Huang, Kwei-Bo, and Teng, Chung-Chian, eds. 2008. Conflict Management, Security and Intervention in East Asia: Third-party Mediation in Regional Conflict. London: Routledge.
Bercovitch, Jacob, ed. 1992. “The Structure and Diversity of Mediation in International Relations.” In Mediation in International Relations, edited by Jacob Bercovitch and Jerry Z. Rubin, 1-29. London: Palgrave Macmillan.
Clapp, Priscilla and DiMaggio, Suzanne, eds. 2013. Sustaining Myanmar’s Transition: Ten Critical Challenges. New York: Asia Society.
Cunningham, David E., ed. 2001. Barriers to Peace in Civil War. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Denzin, Norman K. and Lincoln, Yvonna S, eds. 1994. Handbook of Qualitative Research. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
Doob, Leonard, ed. 1993. Interventions: Guides and Perils. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Miller, Christopher E. and King, Mary E., eds. 2011. A Glossary of Terms and Concepts in Peace and Conflict Management. Washington. DC: United States Institute of Peace.
Wang, Yizhou, ed. 2017. Creative Involvement: A New Direction in Chinese Diplomacy. London: Routledge.
Zartman, William I, ed. 1997. Peacemaking in International Conflict: Methods and Techniques. Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace.
Journal
Bercovitch, Jacob J., and Scott S. Gartner. 2006. “Is There Method in the Madness of Mediation? Some Lessons for Mediators from Quantitative Studies of Mediation.” International Interactions, 32, no. 4 (January): 329-354.
Bercovitch, Jacob J., Theodore Anagnoson, and Donette L. Wille. 1991. “Some Conceptual Issues and Empirical Trends in the Study of Successful Mediation in International Relations.” Journal of Peace Research 28, no. 1 (February): 7-17.
Bolesta, Andrzej. 2018. “Myanmar-China Peculiar Relationship: Trade, Investment and the Model of Development.” Journal of International Studies 11, no. 2, (June): 23-36.
Chaziza, Mordechai. 2018. “China’s Mediation Efforts in the Middle East and North Africa: Constructive Conflict Management.” Strategic Analysis 42, no. 1 (March): 29-41.
Chen, Xiangming. 2018. “Globalisation Redux: Can China’s Inside-Out Strategy Catalyse Economic Development Across its Asian Borderlands and Beyond.” Cambridge Journal of Regions Economy and Society 11, no. 1 (March): 35-58.
Frazier, Derrick V., and William J. Dixon. 2006. “Third-Party Intermediaries and Negotiated Settlements, 1946–2000.” Empirical and Theoretical Research in International Relations 32, no. 4 (December): 385-408.
Gartner, Scott S. 2014. “Third-Party Mediation of Interstate Conflicts: Actors Strategies, Selection, and Bias.” Arbitration Law Review 6 (Year Book): 269-294.
Govinda, Clayton. 2013. “Relative Rebel Strength and the Onset and Outcome of Civil War Mediation.” Journal of Peace Research 50, no. 5 (August): 609-622.
Malterud, Kirsti. 2001. “The Art and Science of Clinical Knowledge: Evidence beyond Measures and Numbers.” The Lancet 358 (August): 397-400.
Melin, Molly M., and Isak Svensson. 2009. “Incentives for Talking: Accepting Mediation in International and Civil Wars.” International Interactions: Empirical and Theoretical Research in International Relations 35, no. 3 (August): 249-271.
Qian, Cheng and Wu, Xiaohui. 2009. “The Art of China`s Mediation during the Nuclear Crisis on the Korean Peninsula.” Asian Affairs: An American Review 36, no. 2 (August): 79-96.
Rauchhaus, Robert W. 2006. “Asymmetric Information, Mediation, and Conflict Management.” World Politics 58, no. 2 (January): 207-241.
Regan, Patrick M. 2002. “Third-Party Interventions and the Duration of Intrastate Conflicts
.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 46, no. 1 (February): 55-73.
Richmond, Oliver P. (2002). Maintaining Order, Making Peace, New York: Palgrave.
Satapathy, R. K. 2004. “Mediating Peace: The Role of Insider-Partials in Conflict Resolution in Mizoram.” Faultlines 15 (February). Available http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/publication/faultlines/volume15/article3.html
Touval, Saadia. 1975. “Biased Intermediaries: Theoretical and Historical Considerations.” Jerusalem Journal of International Relations 1, no 1: 51-69.
Wall, Jame A., John B. Stark, and Rhetta L. Standifer. 2001. “A Current Review and Theory Development.” Journal of Conflict Resolutions 45, no. 3 (June): 370-391.
Wallensteen, P.& Svensson, I. (2014). Talking peace: International mediation in armed conflicts. Journal of Peace Research, 51(2), 315-327.
Wang, Jin. 2016. “The US Withdrawal and One Belt One Road: Chinese Concerns and Challenges in Afghanistan.” Strategic Assessment 19, no. 3 (October): 69–79.
Conference paper
Christie, Kennth and Robert J. Hanlon. 2014. “Myanmar’s China Threat: How the UN Global Compact is Changing Development in Southeast Asia.” Paper presented at the 11th Annual International Conference on Politics & International Affairs and Annual International Forum on Policy and Decision Making, Athens, Greece.
Institute reports
Aron, Gabrielle, David S. Mathieson, Joy Adrienne, and Yun Sun. 2018. “China’s Role in Myanmar’s Internal Conflicts.” United States Institute of Peace, September 14.
Burke, Adam, Nicola Williams, Patrick Barron, Kim Jolliffe and Thomas Carr. 2017. “The Contested Areas of Myanmar: Subnational Conflict, Aid, and Development.” The Asia Foundation, October 17.
Ganesan, Narayanan. 2018. “Bilateral Issues in Myanmar’s Policy towards China.” Occasional Paper No 38, January.
Human Rights Council. 2018. “Report of the Independent International Fact-finding Mission on Myanmar,” United Nations Human Rights Office of the High Commissioner, September 12.
ISDP. 2018. “China’s Role in UN Peacekeeping.” Institute for Security & Development Policy, March.
Khin, Khin Kyaw Kyee, 2018a. “February China’s Multi-Layered Engagement Strategy and Myanmar’s Reality: The Best Fit for Beijing’s Preferences.” Institute for Strategy and Policy- Myanmar, February 28.
Khin, Khin Kyaw Kyee, 2018b. “December,Conceptualizing China’s Central-Local Nexus: Beijing’s Repositioning on Border Issues with Myanmar.” Institute for Strategy and Policy- Myanmar, February 28.
Khin, Khin Kyaw Kyee, 2018c. “Finding Peace along the China Myanmar Economic Corridor: Between Short-Term Interests and Long-Lasting Peace.” Institute for Strategy and Policy- Myanmar, February 28.
Large, Daniel. 2008. “China’s Role in the Mediation and Resolution of Conflict in Africa.” Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue, June 1.
Legarda, Helena and Marie, L. Hoffmann. 2018. “China as a Conflict Mediator Maintaining Stability Along the Belt and Road.” Mercator Institute for China Studies, August 22.
Lintner, Bertil. 2019. “The United Wa State Army and Burma’s Peace Process.” United States Institute of Peace, April 29.
NCA, 2015, Chapter 1, Basic Principles, Article B. https://peacemaker.un.org/sites/peacemaker.un.org/files/MM_151510_NCAAgreement.pdf
Sun, Yun. 2014. “Myanmar in US-China Relations.” The Stimson Center, June.
Sun, Yun. 2017. “China and Myanmar’s Peace Process.” United States Institute of Peace, March 17.
United Nations. 2015. “The Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement
between the Government of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar and the Ethnic Armed Organization.” United Nations. Available at https://peacemaker.un.org/node/2701
Yhome, K. 2019. “Understanding China’s Response to Ethnic Conflicts in Myanmar.” Observer Research Foundation, ORF Occasional Paper No.188, April.
Magazine and news articles
Financial Times. 2015. “Suu Kyi’s China trip a symbol of Myanmar’s power shifts.” 10, June.
Fuller, Thomas. 2011. “Myanmar Backs Down, Suspending Dam Project.” The New York Times, September 30.
Kovrig, Michael. 2018. “China Expands Its Peace and Security Footprint in Africa.” International Crisis Group, October 24.
Lintner, Bertil. 2012. “More War Than Peace in Myanmar.” Asian Times, December 18.
Lintner, Bertil. 2013. “Myanmar Morphs to US-China Battlefield.” Asian Times, May 2.
Lintner, Bertil. 2017. “China Uses Carrot and Stick in Myanmar.” Asia Times, February 28.
Lintner, Bertil. 2019. “Minorities, Money and Getting It Wrong in Myanmar.” Global Asia, March 27.
Lintner, Bertil, Mae Sot, and Myawaddy. 2019. “Peace March Kicks Up More War in Myanmar.” Asia Times, March 19.
Lun, Min Mang, Thu Thu Aung, and Guy Dinmore. 2016 “UWSA Wants China in Peace Process.” Myanmar Times, May 2.
Lwin, Nan. 2018. “Analysis: Muse-Mandalay Railway Agreement with China Raises Debt, Conflict Fears.” The Irrawaddy, October 31.
Lwin, Nan. 2019a. “Analysis: Behind the Threats and Warnings of Chinese Ambassador’s Kachin Visit.” The Irrawaddy, January 9.
Lwin, Nan. 2019b. “China to Provide 1 Billion Yuan Socioeconomic Grant to Myanmar.” The Irrawaddy, April 30.
Mizzima. 2018. “Myanmar-China Bilateral Trade Hits US$6.3 Bn in First 7 months of FY.” Mizzima, January 4.
Mon, Ye. 2018. “Tatmadaw Says It Will Halt Operations in Shan and Kachin to Resuscitate Peace Talks.” Frontier Myanmar, December 21.
Nichols, Michelle. 2017. “China, Russia Block U.N. Council Concern About Myanmar Violence.” Reuters, March 18.
Nichols, Michelle. 2018. “U.N. Security Council Mulls Myanmar Action; Russia, China Boycott Talks.” Reuters, December 18.
Nyein, Nyein. 2018a. “Analysis: Why Did the KNU Temporarily Leave Peace Talks?” The Irrawaddy, October 29.
Nyein, Nyein. 2018b. “Tatmadaw Announces Four-Month Ceasefire in North, Northeast.” The Irrawaddy, December 21.
Ong, Andrew. 2019. “After the Fanfare, Back to Basics—The UWSA and Ceasefire Realities.” The Irrawaddy, May 13.
Pagnucco, Raymond. 2017. “China Card in the Peace Process.” Mizzima, March.
Panda, Ankit. 2015. “Myanmar Bombings in Yunnan Killed 4 Chinese.” The Diplomat, March 14.
Quinley, John III. 2015, “The Price of Conflict in Northern Myanmar.” The Diplomat, December 8.
Reuters World News. 2008. “TIMELINE: Myanmar`s Slow Road to A New Constitution.” Reuters, February 10.
The Myanmar Times. 2018. “Japan Will Be More Active in Peace Process.” The Myanmar Times, January 2.
Toe, Ei Ei and Andrew Kaspar. 2016. “From Panglong I to Panglong II.” The Myanmar Times, August 30.
Transnational Institute. 2016. “China’s Engagement in Myanmar: From Malacca Dilemma to Transition Dilemma.” Transnational Institute, July 16.
Transnational Institute. 2017. “Beyond Panglong: Myanmar’s National Peace and Reform Dilemma.” Transnational Institute, September 21.
Tun, Aung Hlu, Martin Petty, and Oliver Holmes. 2013. “Myanmar Holds Peace Talks with Kachin Leaders in China.” Reuters, February 4.
Zaw, Htet Naing. 2018. “Kyaukphyu SEZ Project Awarded to China for Lack of Options, Ex-Minister Says.” The Irrawaddy, August 6. |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
國際研究英語碩士學位學程(IMPIS)
106926009 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106926009 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| DOI: | 10.6814/NCCU201900283 |
| Appears in Collections: | [國際研究英語碩士學位學程] 學位論文
|
Files in This Item:
| File |
Size | Format | |
|---|
| 600901.pdf | 1195Kb | Adobe PDF2 | 1 | View/Open |
|
All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.
|
