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| Title: | 褐皮書是否會驅動建築投資?
Does the Beige Book Move Construction Investment? |
| Authors: | 陳盈臻
Chen, Ying-Jhen |
| Contributors: | 陳明吉
Chen, Ming-Chi
陳盈臻
Chen, Ying-Jhen |
| Keywords: | 文字探勘
情緒分析
房地產市場
褐皮書
情緒指數
Text mining
Sentiment analysis
Real estate market
Beige Book
Sentiment index |
| Date: | 2019 |
| Issue Date: | 2019-08-07 16:05:03 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | The main purpose of this thesis was to explore whether the information in the important government documents could be applied in the real estate market. We used 160 Beige Books from January 1998 to December 2017 as our research materials, which were one of the representative official documents of the United States. We constructed a sentiment index based on the content of the Beige Book by text mining and lexicon-based approach for sentiment analysis. The sentiment index is the main factor that may affect real estate market, as we observed. The representative real estate market indicators included dependent variables, such as house prices, construction output, building permits and real estate stocks, and some macroeconomic data as control variables, such as unemployment rate, population, mortgage interest rate and personal income. The results showed that the sentiment index of the Beige Book was positively associated with changes in housing prices, construction output and building permits, that in particular, the current sentiment variables had a more significant impact on those real estate market indicators. However, the sentiment index of the Beige Book was not significantly associated with changes in S&P 500 Real Estate, in which the reason might be that S&P 500 Real Estate was only representing one sector of S&P 500; thus, we believed that real estate stocks would be more affected by variables relevant to the stock market. In this thesis, we found the Beige Book as a market sentiment index, which not only influenced the direction of monetary policy, but also impacted the real estate market. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
財務管理學系
106357026 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106357026 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| DOI: | 10.6814/NCCU201900558 |
| Appears in Collections: | [財務管理學系] 學位論文
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