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| Title: | 媒體情緒對大台北房市之影響: 文字探勘之應用
Application of Text Mining: The Influence of Media Sentiment on Real Estate Market in Taipei Metropolitan Area |
| Authors: | 黃御維
Huang, Yu-Wei |
| Contributors: | 陳明吉
Chen, Ming-Chi
黃御維
Huang, Yu-Wei |
| Keywords: | 網路爬蟲
文字探勘
情緒分析
媒體情緒指數
房地產市場
Web crawler
Text mining
Sentiment analysis
Real estate market
Media sentiment index |
| Date: | 2019 |
| Issue Date: | 2019-08-07 16:04:14 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 房地產市場的產品異質性高，再加上台灣房地產市場的資訊不對稱的問題嚴重，往往新聞媒體的資訊與消息成為市場參與者分析房市之重要來源，導致市場參與者較容易地受到媒體的風向影響，改變其對於房市的觀點。本研究透過網路爬蟲抓取2006年至2017年間共21,678篇有關台北市與新北市的房市與總體經濟新聞作為研究資料，透過文字探勘中的情緒分析方式，探討媒體情緒指數與房地產市場之關係，選取房價、房屋交易量、房屋流通天數與議價空間為房市狀況指標。本研究發現，不論新北市或是台北市，本研究編制的媒體情緒指數對於其房價、交易量與流通天數都是呈現顯著的影響，表示媒體對於房市的報導態度，會直接或間接地影響市場參與者之想法或預期，進而投入房地產市場，此外房市新聞報導的頻率對於房價、成交量與流通天數也有顯著的相關性，亦表示新聞報導量的增加，將會推升市場參與者對於下一期房市之預期。本研究也透過Copula動態相關分析，發現兩地區房價和交易量與其媒體情緒指數之動態相關性約在2012年時開始產生明顯變化，甚至由正相關轉為負相關，本研究認為此相關性具有明顯的變化是因為當時政府積極推動各項房市政策以抑制房價，例如:2011年奢侈稅的上路， 2012年實施豪宅限貸令與實施時價登錄，因此房市政策的實施，也會影響市場參與者的態度與房市展望。
The real estate market exist high product heterogeneity, and there also is a serious problem of information asymmetry in the Taiwan real estate market. The information and news from news media often become an important source for market participants to analyze the housing market, which makes it easier for market participants to be influenced by the media`s spin control and change their perspective on the housing market. We used web crawler to download 21,678 articles about the housing market and macroeconomics news of Taipei City and New Taipei City from 2006 to 2017. Through the method of text mining and emotional analysis, we want to explore the relationship between the media sentiment index and the real estate market, including house price, trading volume, circulation days and bargaining space. We found that regardless of New Taipei City or Taipei City, the media sentiment index of the two regions has a significant impact on their housing prices, trading volume and circulation days, indicating that the attitude of media`s reporting towards the housing market would directly or indirectly affect the ideas or expectations of market participants, and then join the real estate market. In addition, the frequency of news reporting has a significant correlation with the price, volume and circulation days. It also indicates that the increase in volume of news will boost market participants` expectations for the housing market performance in next period.We also use Copula dynamic correlation analysis and found that the dynamic correlation between house prices and media sentiment index in the two regions began to change significantly in 2012, even from positive correlation to negative correlation. We believe that this correlation has obvious changes because the government actively promoted various housing policies to curb housing prices. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
財務管理學系
106357018 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0106357018 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| DOI: | 10.6814/NCCU201900185 |
| Appears in Collections: | [財務管理學系] 學位論文
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