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    Title: 總統當選人之衣尾效應再檢證：以2017年法國選舉為中心
    A Reexamination of the Coattail Effect Created by the President-Elect: The Case of 2017 Elections in France
    Authors: 吳文煜
    Wu, Wen-Yu
    Contributors: 翁燕菁
    Weng, Vivianne Yen-ching
    吳文煜
    Wu, Wen-Yu
    Keywords: 衣尾效應
    法國總統選舉
    法國國會選舉
    投票行為
    選舉策略
    Coattail effect
    French presidential election
    French legislative election
    Voting behavior
    Election strategy
    Date: 2018
    Issue Date: 2018-08-10 10:48:59 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 2017年的總統選舉，是法國第五共和以來首次傳統左右大黨皆未晉級決選的特殊選舉。而進入決選的Emmanuel Macron與Marine Le Pen，前者脫離左派新創中間新興政黨La République En Marche!（LREM），後者則是法國極右派Front national（FN）黨魁。在阻擋極右派當選總統的助力下，Macron最終以逾6成得票率當選總統。借助時勢當選且非代表左右大黨，Macron短期成軍並改組的新政黨，卻於約1個月後的國民議會大選中囊括過半數席次。
    法國第五共和新當選總統的衣尾效應，長期為諸多研究驗證。尤其2002年起施行之蜜月期選舉，皆成功創造府會一致之局，有效阻止左右共治的發生。相對而言，國會議員亦以支持新當選總統的方式爭取選票，而選民亦呈現以支持新當選總統與否取決國會議員選票。反之，過去的衣尾效應僅發揮在傳統的左右派政黨之間，而來自新興政黨的中間派總統是否得以領導其政黨發揮衣尾效應？
    透過檢證2017年法國大選，證實衣尾效應在法國確實具有普遍性且不受傳統左右派意識形態侷限，即使新興政黨在舊國會當中沒有任何席次，透過蜜月期選舉時程也得以依靠總統當選人之衣尾效應成為國會最大黨。由此得知，總統大選的結果最為關鍵，傳統的左右派大黨在總統選舉中失利，進而喪失國會選舉的話語權來影響選民是否要支持新總統與否。
    「蜜月期選舉時程」下造就的低投票率與反共治政府是使LREM成為國會最大黨的主因。此外，本次選舉超過200名現任國會議員放棄連任，使原本存有顧客型政治文化的國會選舉更進一步簡化為總統的「第三輪選舉」。
    為了檢證本文的假設：「蜜月期選舉時程下，法國總統當選人之衣尾效應具有普遍性」，筆者採用「內容分析法」與「個案研究法」進行驗證。將法國577個國會選區列為「分析單位」，並與選舉結果作驗證；另以「個案研究法」深入探討在何種情況下衣尾效應之效力會衰退。
    本文證實，法國在「蜜月期選舉時程」下，總統當選人之衣尾效應確實具有普遍性，不論當選人為誰，產生府會一致的政治局面之機率非常高，左右共治再次出現的機率則大幅度下降。
    The French presidential election in 2017 was the very first time in the history of the Fifth Republic that the traditionally major political parties from both left and right wings failed to advance to the final round. The candidates who reached the final round were Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen. The former, a dissenting Socialist, had created his new centrist party, La République En Marche! (LREM), whilst the latter ran her campaign as head of the far right party, Front national (FN). Labelled as “anti-far-right president”, Macron collected more than 60% of the votes, making him the new French president in May 2017. Following this personal victory, his LREM also won more than 50% of the seats at the end of the legislative election held one month later.

    The coattail effect of the president-elect under the French Fifth Republic has been extensively studied, especially from 2002 onwards. The "honeymoon” voting schedule has successfully triggered consecutive unified governments and therefore prevented the cohabitation from happening again. The deciding factor that has driven the electorate’s votes is whether or not to support the president-elect. As such, the National Assembly candidates would only need to rely on votes from supporters of the president-elect to win more votes.

    The 2017 elections have produced a new phenomenon. Only the traditionally major parties had benefited from the president-elect’s coattail effect in the past. The weight of these parties could weaken the president-elect’s personal influence on the following National Assembly election. However, I argue in this thesis that the coattail effect does not stop with traditional right-left cleavage. In the case of 2017 elections, I found that the president-elect did have the power to collect sufficient votes for a unified government under the “honeymoon” voting schedule.

    The 2017 French elections reveal that the president-elect’s “coattail” does have an impact on the legislative electorate beyond the traditional right-left cleavage. Thus the outcome of presidential election is crucial. Major parties that failed in the presidential election would lose the power of discourse in the legislative election.

    The “honeymoon” voting schedule was the key in explaining why LREM could become the majority in the National Assembly. It has benefited from a low turnout rate and the anti-cohabitation electorate. Moreover, the fact that more than 200 incumbents announced not to defend their seats in 2017 has also reinforced the coattail effect. The legislative election could further be reduced to the president’s “third round” voting.

    In this thesis, I approached “content analysis method” and “case study method” to justify my hypothesis; the coattail effect of the French president-elect does have a generalizability under the “honeymoon” voting schedule. I tested all the 577 French legislative constituencies as the “unit of analysis” to check whether the election result would meet the assumption and used the “case study” to observe what might have weakened the coattail effect.

    I found that as long as the “honeymoon” voting schedule remained unchanged, the president-elects of France would keep their “coattail effect” to secure a solid majority in the National Assembly. In other words, the chance of cohabitation is slim, no matter who the president-elect is, his/her party will very likely be a majority in the National Assembly.
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    The Guardian. 2017b. “Emmanuel Macron vows unity after winning French presidential election.” https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/07/emmanuel-macron-wins-french-presidency-marine-le-pen (Accessed on Apr.14, 2018).
    The Local. 2017a. “A look inside France`s new, younger and less male dominated parliament.” https://www.thelocal.fr/20170619/inside-frances-new-parliament-key-changes. (Accessed on Sep. 19, 2017).
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    The Telegraph, 2017, “Emmanuel Macron unveils parliamentary candidates - half political newcomers, half women.” http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/11/emmanuel-macron-unveils-parliamentary-candidates-half-political/. (Accessed on Sep. 19, 2017).
    The Telegraph, 2017, “French election results: How the Parliament looks as Macron`s party claims an astounding majority.” http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/19/french-election-results-new-parliament-looks-macrons-new-party/. (Accessed on Nov. 11, 2017).
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    BBC，2016，〈薩科齊應就2012選舉開支接受審判〉，http://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/world/2016/09/160905_sarkozy_trial_recommendation，查閱時間：2017/11/2。
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    今日新聞，2017，〈乾薪門醜聞費雍公開道歉　堅不退出總統大選〉，https://www.nownews.com/news/20170207/2396038，查閱時間：2017/10/2。
    東森新聞，2016，〈涉違反選舉開支法　重創法國前總統薩科齊明年選情〉，https://www.ettoday.net/news/20160217/648799.htm，查閱時間：2017/11/12。
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    法國世界之聲，2017b，〈看法國海外選民如何進行投票〉，trad.cn.rfi.fr/法國/20170423-看法國海外選民如何進行投票，查閱時間：2018/4/25。
    法國國際廣播電台報導(中文)，2017，〈法國為何難掀起“團結一致反極右”的氣勢？〉，trad.cn.rfi.fr/政治/20170427-法國為何難掀起“團結一致反極右”的氣勢？，查閱時間：2017/10/4。
    網路資料
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    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    政治學系
    1042520161
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1042520161
    Data Type: thesis
    DOI: 10.6814/THE.NCCU.PS.008.2018.F09
    Appears in Collections:[Department of Political Science] Theses

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