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| Title: | 物價目標區與不確定的政策：圖形的解析
Price Target Zones and Uncertain Policy：A Graphical Analysis |
| Authors: | 張鈺朋
Chang, Yu-Peng |
| Contributors: | 賴景昌
方中柔
Lai, Ching-Chong
Fang, Chung-Rou
張鈺朋
Chang, Yu-Peng |
| Keywords: | 物價目標區
物價變動預期
蜜月效果
標準布朗運動
總合供給面干擾
Price target zone
Inflation expectations
Honey moon effect
Standard Brownian motion
Aggregate supply shock |
| Date: | 2018 |
| Issue Date: | 2018-08-07 17:22:39 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 一直以來，各國貨幣當局大多將物價穩定視為首要目標。本篇論文運用一封閉的總體模型，並且利用圖形解析的方法，討論物價目標區的實施在面對政策的不確定下是否對於相關總體變數具有安定效果，並且進一步討論物價目標區政策的相關因素對於政策效果的影響。我們發現物價目標區會影響民眾對於物價變動的預期。當經濟體系受到來自總合供給面的干擾時，物價目標區政策對於物價存在蜜月效果，但是對於產出會存在反蜜月效果。若考慮政策的不確定性，則物價目標區對於物價的蜜月效果與產出的反蜜月效果會降低，甚至在面對目標區重整的不確定時，物價可能產生反蜜月效果，而產出可能產生蜜月效果。此外，隨著民眾對政策的敏感度、目標區寬度、或重整規模的增加，物價的蜜月效果會降低，產出的反蜜月效果也會下降。
Up till now, price stability has still been treated as the first priority by the monetary authorities. Based on a closed-economy macro model, this thesis uses a graphical analysis to examine whether the implementation of the price target zone tends to stabilize or destabilize the relevant macroeconomic variables when the economy faces policy uncertainty. We also examine the stabilizing performance of the relevant factors of the price target zone. Several main findings emerge from the analysis. First, the price target zone tends to affect the public’s inflation expectations. Second, when the economy experiences an aggregate supply shock, the price target zone leads to a honeymoon effect in prices, but causes a divorce effect in output. Third, when the uncertainty of policy implementation is brought into the picture, the above two effects will be weakened. More specifically, when the uncertainty regarding the realignment of the band is present, the price target zone may lead to a divorce effect in price and a honeymoon effect in output. Moreover, following a rise in the public`s sensitivity to policy, the width of a band, and the size of a realignment, the honeymoon effect in price and the divorce effect in output will decline in response. |
| Reference: | 一、中文部分
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
經濟學系
105258025 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0105258025 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| DOI: | 10.6814/THE.NCCU.ECONO.015.2018.F06 |
| Appears in Collections: | [經濟學系] 學位論文
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