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| Title: | 俄羅斯與美國關係之研究(2009-2016年)
A study on Russia-U.S. relations (2009-2016) |
| Authors: | 林煜翔 |
| Contributors: | 魏百谷
林煜翔 |
| Keywords: | 俄羅斯國家利益
俄美關係
克里米亞事件
敘利亞事件
Russian national interest
Russia-U.S. relations
Crimea
Syria |
| Date: | 2018 |
| Issue Date: | 2018-03-02 11:59:35 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 摘要
俄美關係的起伏對整體國際局勢有高度影響，因此，21世紀的俄美關係仍為國際關係中，不可漠視的重點。雙方在諸多議題上的認知不同，彼此的國家利益也有所歧異，導致兩國關係無法穩定正向發展。普丁自1999年底掌權以來，積極恢復俄羅斯國際強權地位，雙方關係在2008年俄喬戰爭後陷入低潮。本研究有三大研究目的，第一，嘗試理解俄羅斯國家利益與對美立場。其次，了解2009至2016年俄美關係發展。最後，討論克里米亞與敘利亞事件對俄美關係之影響。
從多項俄羅斯官方文件中，可以得知當代俄羅斯的國家利益為提升國際地位、確保國家安全，以及國家發展，實際上三點互相影響，密不可分。在對美立場上，俄羅斯表示出對美國霸權的不滿，期望國際社會走向多極體系。另一方面，俄羅斯對美國的態度，在梅德維傑夫就任總統期間相對熱絡友善，2012年普丁再度就任總統後，態度趨向冷漠。兩國關係上，因美國歐巴馬政府提出的「重啟」，俄美關係慢慢逐漸升溫，但在2014年俄羅斯兼併克里米亞後，俄美關係急轉直下，2015年俄羅斯更直接在敘利亞投入大量軍事資源，並支持阿薩德政府，與美國支持的反政府勢力形成對立。
本研究認為俄羅斯兼併克里米亞一事，為造成俄美關係低落的重要因素，俄羅斯強硬的態度與行動顯現出對鞏固國家安全的重視。同時，俄美雙方在敘利亞事件上的歧異，則是長期拖累兩國關係朝向正面發展的另一因素。俄羅斯積極在敘利亞內戰上展現處理國際議題的能力，希望藉此打破國際孤立，並提高俄羅斯的國際地位。目前看來，俄美關係仍然處於低谷，並沒有改善的趨勢。
Abstract
Russia-U.S. relations is highly influential to international affairs. Therefore, the relations between Russia and the United States in the 21st century remains crucial on the understanding of international relations. There is a discord between the two countries, which holds back a stable development of the relationship. Since late 1999, Putin took over the office, Russia strives to restore the status of a great power. Russia-U.S. relations was at the low point after the Russo-Georgian War in 2008. This study contains three research purposes: First, Russian national interests and position towards United States. Second, the evolution of the Russia-U.S. relations. Third, the impact of the annexation of Crimea and Syrian war.
According to multiple official documents, the modern national interests of Russia include the enhance of international status, national security and national development. On the position towards United States, Russia expresses dissatisfaction to the U.S. hegemony and expects the development of multi-polar of international system. On the other side, Russia’s attitude towards U.S. turned from friendly while Medvedev served as president to unconcerned after Putin became president again in 2012. The “Reset” proposed by Obama administration boosted the Russia-U.S. relations. However, the annexation of Crimea and the conflict between the both on the Syrian war led to deterioration of the Russia-U.S. relations.
The findings of this study reveal that the annexation of the Crimea is the main factor that cause the deterioration. Russia’s tough attitude and actions represent the eagerness to consolidate national security. Meanwhile, the divergence between Russia and U.S. on the Syrian war is the long-term factor that keeps the relations from improvement. Russia actively tries to demonstrates the ability to deal with international issues, in the hope of breaking international isolation and enhancing international status. Currently, Russia-U.S. relations remains at low level with no sign of improvement. |
| Reference: | 參考文獻
一、英文
（一）專書
Clinton, David W., The Two Faces of National Interest, Baton Rouge, La.: Louisiana State University Press, 1994.
Donaldson, Robert H., The Foreign Policy of Russia: Changing Systems, Enduring Interests, Armonk, New York: M.E. Sharpe, 4th ed., 2009.
Eichler, Jan, War, Peace and International Security-From Sarajevo to Crimea, UK: Palgrave Macmillan, 2017. p.181.
Frankel, Joseph, National Interest, New York: Praeger, 1970.
Gvosdev, Nikolas K., Russian Foreign Policy: Interests, Vectors, and Sectors, Los Angeles: SAGE/CQ Press, 2014.
Kanet, Roger E. ed., Russian Foreign Policy in the 21st Century, New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2011.
Kanet, Roger E., Maria Raquel Freire ed., Competing for Influence: the EU and Russia in post-Soviet Eurasia, Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Republic of Letters Publishing, 2012.
Kanet, Roger E. and Rémi Piet ed., Shifting Priorities in Russia`s Foreign and Security Policy, Farnham, Surrey, UK: Burlington, VT: Ashgate, 2014.
Kuchins, Andrew C., “Mismatched Partners: US-Russia Relations after Cold War,” In David Cadier and Margot Light, eds., Russia’s Foreign Policy: Ideas, Domestic Politics and External Relations, New York: Palgrave Macmillan, Ch. 7, 2015.
Pierret, Thomas, Religion and State in Syria: the Sunni Ulama from Coup to Revolution, New York: Cambridge University Press, 2013.
Stent, Angela, The limits of partnership: U.S.-Russian relations in the twenty-first century, Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 2014.
Taras, Ray ed., Russia`s Identity in International Relations: Images, Perceptions, Misperceptions, New York: Routledge, 2013.
Tsygankov, Andrei P., Russia`s Foreign Policy: Change and Continuity in National Identity, Lanham, Md.: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2nd ed., 2010.
Ziyādah, Raḍwān, Power and policy in Syria: Intelligence Services, Foreign Relations and Democracy in the Modern Middle East, London; New York: I.B. Tauris, 2013.
Ziser, Eyal, Commanding Syria: Bashar al-Asad and the First Years in Power, London; New York, N.Y.: I.B. Tauris, 2007.
Ziser, Eyal, Asad`s Legacy: Syria in transition, London: Hurst & Company, 2001.
（二）期刊文章
Spechler, Dina Rome, “Russian Foreign Policy During the Putin Presidency: The Impact of Competing Approaches,” Problems of Post-Communism, Vol. 57, No. 5, 2010. pp. 35-40.
Suslov, Dmitry, “US-Russia Confrontation and a New Global Balance,” Strategic Analysis, Vol. 40, No. 6, 2016. pp. 547-560.
Tsygankov, Andrei P., “Vladimir Putin`s Last Stand: the Sources of Russia`s Ukraine Policy,” Post-Soviet Affairs, Vol. 31, No. 4, 2015. pp. 279-303.
Yost, David S., “The Budapest Memorandum and Russia’s intervention in Ukraine,” International Affairs, Volume 91, Issue 3, 2015. pp. 505-538.
（三）網路資料
Arbatov, Alexey, “Russian Foreign and Security Policy,” Carnegie Moscow Center, June 21, 2016. Available at: <http://carnegie.ru/2016/06/21/russian-foreign-and-security-policy-pub-63860#5> (Accessed: 2017/12/20)
Blinov, Maksim, “Russian National Security Strategy for 2016: Key Updated Points,” Sputnik International, January 2, 2016. Available at: <https://sputniknews.com/russia/201601021032599111-russia-national-security-strategy/> (Accessed: 2017/5/11)
Kureev, Artem, “Decoding the changes in Russia`s new foreign policy concept,” Russia Direct, December 9, 2016. Available at: <http://www.russia-direct.org/opinion/decoding-changes-russias-new-foreign-policy-concept> (Accessed: 2017/5/15)
Russell, Martin, Sanctions over Ukraine, Impact on Russia, European Parliamentary Research Service, March 2016, p. 1. Available at: <http://www.europarl.europa.eu/EPRS/EPRS-Briefing-579084-Sanctions-over-Ukraine-impact-Russia-FINAL.pdf> (Accessed: 2017/12/10)
Oliker, Olga, “Unpacking Russia`s New National Security Strategy,” Center for Strategic and International Studies. January 7, 2016. Available at: <https://www.csis.org/analysis/unpacking-russias-new-national-security-strategy> (Accessed: 2017/3/9)
Oliker, Olga. & Andrey Kortunov edit., “A Roadmap for U.S.-Russia Relations,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, August 14, 2017. Available at: <https://www.csis.org/analysis/roadmap-us-russia-relations> (Accessed: 2017/12/14)
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（四）俄羅斯官方資訊
Annual News Conference (2012-2016)
2012, <http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/17173>
(Accessed: 2017/4/22)
2014, <http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/47250>
(Accessed: 2017/4/22)
2015, <http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50971>
(Accessed: 2017/4/22)
2016, <http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/53573>
(Accessed: 2017/4/22)
Federal State Statistic Service, External trade of the Russian Federation with other countries. Available at: <http://www.gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat_main/rosstat/en/figures/activities/> (Accessed: 2017/10/23)
Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation (2008, 2013, 2016)
2008 version. Available at: <http://en.kremlin.ru/supplement/4116> (Accessed: 2017/2/21)
2013 version. Available at: <http://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/official_documents/-/asset_publisher/CptICkB6BZ29/content/id/122186> (Accessed: 2017/1/30)
2016 version. Available at: <http://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/official_documents/-/asset_publisher/CptICkB6BZ29/content/id/2542248> (Accessed: 2017/6/30)
National Security Concept of the Russian Federation (2015). Available at: <http://www.ieee.es/Galerias/fichero/OtrasPublicaciones/Internacional/2016/Russian-National-Security-Strategy-31Dec2015.pdf> (Accessed: 2017/7/5)
Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly (2008-2016)
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2009, http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/5979
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(Accessed: 2017/8/4)
2011, <http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/14088>
(Accessed: 2017/8/3)
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(Accessed: 2017/8/2)
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(Accessed: 2017/7/29)
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二、中文
（一）專書
李明主編，普欽執政下的俄羅斯，臺北市：五南，2015。
約翰．米爾斯海默（John Mearsheimer）著，王義桅、唐小松譯，大國政治的悲劇，台北市：麥田，2014。
周煦，敘利亞史：以阿和平的關鍵國，臺北市：三民，2003。
倪世雄，當代國際關係理論，第二版，臺北市：五南，2010。
趙竹成，「徘徊在歸附與自決之間─烏克蘭東部與克里米亞的選擇」，收錄於洪泉湖主編，當代歐洲民族運動：從蘇格蘭獨立公投到克里米亞危機，臺北市：聯經，2017，頁101-128。
張亞中，國際關係總論，第二版，臺北市：揚智文化，2007。
鄭欽模，重返強權：俄羅斯國家安全政策變革之研究(1989-2019)，臺北市：翰蘆圖書，2016
薛興國，俄羅斯國家安全理論與實踐，北京市：時事出版社，2011。
（二）期刊文章
卡拉干諾夫（Sergei Karaganov）、博爾達切夫（Timofei Bordachev）、蘇斯洛夫（Dmitry Suslov），「重建而非僅僅重啟：對美關係中的俄羅斯利益」，俄羅斯研究，第5期，2009，頁13-33。
汪哲仁，「俄羅斯軍事介入敘利亞之原因與未來發展」，戰略安全研析，125期，2015，頁23-31。
李群英，「中俄『攜手』制衡美國－軍事打擊敘利亞」，海峽評論，274期，2013，頁22-25。
李群英，「美國『重返亞洲』與美俄冷戰－美俄角力敘利亞：新冷戰的到來？」，海峽評論，267期，2013，頁28-33。
林子立，「美歐俄在敘利亞議題之競爭關係」，全球政治評論，52期，2015，頁23 -28。
林佾靜，「敘利亞內戰問題之啓示：一個失敗國家的形成與外溢危機」，長庚人文社會學報，7卷2期，2014，頁359-418。
洪祿淵、陳至潔，「中俄否決安理會對敘利亞決議草案的立場分析」，戰略安全研析，88期，頁48-57，2012。
黃柏欽，「俄羅斯在敘利亞執行軍事行動之原因探析」，國防雜誌，31卷2期，2016，頁31-54。
連弘宜，「俄美兩國在敘利亞議題上的交鋒」，戰略安全研析，103期，2013，頁46-53。
陳駕譽，「試論美國對敘利亞武力干涉的困境因素」，戰略安全研析，103期，2013，頁54-61。
謝游麟，「俄羅斯出兵敘利亞之意涵分析」，戰略安全研析，125期，2015，頁14-22。
熊李力，潘宇，「烏克蘭困局：俄羅斯外交的延續性與斷裂性」，外交評論，第2期，2015，頁123-137。
梁強，「從近鄰政策到向東看：烏克蘭危機與普京的戰略決策」，外交評論，2015年，第6期，2015，頁114-138。
梁强，「烏克蘭危機一年：回顧、反思與展望」，俄羅斯研究，第1期，2015，頁28-59。
畢洪業，「敘利亞危機、新地區戰爭與俄羅斯的中東戰略」，外交評論，第1期，2016，頁60-81。
赫德蘭（Stefan Hedlund），「在烏克蘭問題上制裁俄羅斯有無意義及效用」，俄羅斯研究，第1期，2015，頁60-85。
薛興國，「俄羅斯國家安全戰略的演變」，軍事歷史研究，2010，頁96-100。
（三）碩士論文
何岱芸，普欽時期美俄關係之研究（2000-2008）。國立政治大學，外交研究所，碩士論文，2009。
林岳賢，敘利亞對美國外交政策之研究（1970—2000），國立政治大學，外交研究所，碩士論文，2013。
周建宏，俄羅斯兼併克里米亞─地緣政治的視角。國立政治大學，俄羅斯研究所，碩士論文，2016。
陳怡君，俄羅斯對美國政策之研究-2000年∼2003年。國立政治大學，俄羅斯研究所，碩士論文，2002。 |
| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
俄羅斯研究所
104263001 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1042630011 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [俄羅斯研究所] 學位論文
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