政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/116012
English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  Items with full text/Total items : 113755/144756 (79%)
Visitors : 51766090      Online Users : 415
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
Scope Tips:
  • please add "double quotation mark" for query phrases to get precise results
  • please goto advance search for comprehansive author search
    •  Adv. Search
    Home ‧ Login ‧ Upload ‧ Help ‧ About ‧ Administer Goto mobile version
    政大典藏 > College of Commerce > Department of Finance > Theses >  Item 140.119/116012


    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/116012


    Title: 經理人過度自信於經濟衰退時對企業併購之影響
    The impact of CEO overconfidence on mergers & acquisitions during economic recession
    Authors: 張暘亘
    Chang, Yang Hsuan
    Contributors: 陳嬿如
    Chen, Yenn Ru
    張暘亘
    Chang, Yang Hsuan
    Keywords: 經理人過度自信
    經濟衰退
    企業併購
    CEO overconfidence
    Economic recession
    Mergers & acquisitions
    Date: 2018
    Issue Date: 2018-03-02 11:39:52 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本研究探討過度自信經理人於經濟衰退階段時之併購行為。本研究蒐集S&P1500大企業於1993年至2016年的資料，對過度自信經理人於景氣衰退階段的併購機率、宣告效果、長期股價表現進行分析。因為過度自信經理人低估景氣衰退所造成的高度不確定性，同時高估本身能夠透過併購所創造的公司價值，我們預期過度自信經理人相較非過度自信經理人更容易在景氣衰退的階段進行併購。然而實證結果過顯示過度自信經理人的併購機率於2008年金融海嘯後大幅下降，減少併購的幅度顯著高於非過度自信經理人。此結果和過去文獻一致，說明在財務資源不足的情況下，過度自信經理人會比非過度自信經理人更不願意投資。因為過度自信經理人高估自家公司權益價值，認為資本市場低估其權益價值，就算面對能為公司創造價值的投資案時也不願意向外發行股票籌資，因而導致他們在經氣衰退時較非過度自信經理人投資更保守。
    The study examines the behaviors of overconfident CEOs during recessions using firms included in S&P 1500 Index from 1993 to 2016. We propose that overconfident CEOs would undertake more M&As than non-overconfident CEOs during recessions for their biased beliefs lead them to underestimating the risk they would incur in recessions and overestimating the synergy they can create through M&As. However, we found that, during and after the 2008 Recessions, overconfident CEOs reduce significantly more in undertaking M&As than non-overconfident CEOs. The results are consistent with past literatures and suggest that decrease in financial resources caused by recession lead overconfident CEOs, who overestimate the value of their own equity and are unwilling to issue new equity, to reducing more in undertaking M&As than non-overconfident CEOs after and during recession.
    Reference: Ahern, K. R., & Harford, J. (2014). The importance of industry links in merger waves. The Journal of Finance, 69(2), 527-576.
    Almazan, A., De Motta, A., Titman, S., & Uysal, V. (2010). Financial structure, acquisition opportunities, and firm locations. The Journal of Finance, 65(2), 529-563.
    Andrade, G., Mitchell, M. L., & Stafford, E. (2001). New evidence and perspectives on mergers.
    Andrade, G., & Stafford, E. (2004). Investigating the economic role of mergers. Journal of Corporate Finance, 10(1), 1-36.
    Bates, T. W., Kahle, K. M., & Stulz, R. M. (2009). Why do US firms hold so much more cash than they used to?. The Journal of finance, 64(5), 1985-2021.
    Becketti, S. (1986). Corporate mergers and the business cycle. Economic Review, 71(5), 13-26.
    Bernanke, B. S. (1983). Irreversibility, uncertainty, and cyclical investment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 98(1), 85-106.
    Bhagwat, V., Dam, R., & Harford, J. (2016). The real effects of uncertainty on merger activity. The Review of Financial Studies, 29(11), 3000-3034.
    Billett, M. T., & Qian, Y. (2008). Are overconfident CEOs born or made? Evidence of self-attribution bias from frequent acquirers. Management Science, 54(6), 1037-1051.
    Bloom, N., Floetotto, M., Jaimovich, N., Saporta-Eksten, I., & Terry, S. J. (2012). Really Uncertain Business cycles (No. w18245). National Bureau of Economic Research.
    Bloom, N. (2009). The impact of uncertainty shocks. Econometrica, 77(3), 623-685.
    Bouwman, C. H., Fuller, K., & Nain, A. S. (2007). Market valuation and acquisition quality: Empirical evidence. The Review of Financial Studies, 22(2), 633-679.
    Braun, M., & Larrain, B. (2005). Finance and the business cycle: international, inter‐industry evidence. The Journal of Finance, 60(3), 1097-1128.
    Brunnermeier, M. K. (2009). Deciphering the liquidity and credit crunch 2007–2008. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 23(1), 77-100.
    Caballero, R. J., & Krishnamurthy, A. (2008). Collective risk management in a flight to quality episode. The Journal of Finance, 63(5), 2195-2230.
    Campbell, T. C., Gallmeyer, M., Johnson, S. A., Rutherford, J., & Stanley, B. W. (2011). CEO optimism and forced turnover. Journal of Financial Economics, 101(3), 695-712.
    Campello, M., Graham, J. R., & Harvey, C. R. (2010). The real effects of financial constraints: Evidence from a financial crisis. Journal of Financial Economics, 97(3), 470-487.
    Caprio, L., Croci, E., & Del Giudice, A. (2011). Ownership structure, family control, and acquisition decisions. Journal of Corporate Finance, 17(5), 1636-1657.
    Dittmar, A., & Mahrt-Smith, J. (2007). Corporate governance and the value of cash holdings. Journal of Financial Economics, 83(3), 599-634.
    Dixit, A. K., & Pindyck, R. S. (1994). Investment Under Uncertainty. Princeton university press.
    Doukas, J. A., & Petmezas, D. (2007). Acquisitions, Overconfident Managers and Self‐attribution Bias. European Financial Management, 13(3), 531-577.
    Duchin, R., & Schmidt, B. (2013). Riding the merger wave: Uncertainty, reduced monitoring, and bad acquisitions. Journal of Financial Economics, 107(1), 69-88.
    Ferreira, M. A., Massa, M., & Matos, P. (2009). Shareholders at the gate? Institutional investors and cross-border mergers and acquisitions. The Review of Financial Studies, 23(2), 601-644.
    Ferris, S. P., Houston, R., & Javakhadze, D. (2016). Friends in the right places: The effect of political connections on corporate merger activity. Journal of Corporate Finance, 41, 81-102.
    Gervais, S., Heaton, J. B., & Odean, T. (2011). Overconfidence, compensation contracts, and capital budgeting. The Journal of Finance, 66(5), 1735-1777.
    Goette, L., Bendahan, S., Thoresen, J., Hollis, F., & Sandi, C. (2015). Stress pulls us apart: Anxiety leads to differences in competitive confidence under stress. Psychoneuroendocrinology, 54, 115-123.
    Gorton, G. B. (2010). Slapped by The Invisible Hand: The panic of 2007. Oxford University Press.
    Griffin, D., & Brenner, L. (2004). Perspectives on probability judgment calibration. Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making, 177-199.
    Gulen, H., & Ion, M. (2015). Policy uncertainty and corporate investment. The Review of Financial Studies, 29(3), 523-564.
    Hadlock, C. J., & Pierce, J. R. (2010). New evidence on measuring financial constraints: Moving beyond the KZ index. The Review of Financial Studies, 23(5), 1909-1940.
    Halling, M., Yu, J., & Zechner, J. (2016). Leverage dynamics over the business cycle. Journal of Financial Economics, 122(1), 21-41.
    Harford, J. (1999). Corporate cash reserves and acquisitions. The Journal of Finance, 54(6), 1969-1997.
    Harford, J. (2005). What drives merger waves?. Journal of Financial Economics, 77(3), 529-560.
    Hayward, M. L., & Hambrick, D. C. (1997). Explaining the premiums paid for large acquisitions: Evidence of CEO hubris. Administrative Science Quarterly, 103-127.
    Harford, J., & Uysal, V. B. (2014). Bond market access and investment. Journal of Financial Economics, 112(2), 147-163.
    Heaton, J. B. (2002). Managerial optimism and corporate finance. Financial Management, 33-45.
    Hirshleifer, D., Low, A., & Teoh, S. H. (2012). Are overconfident CEOs better innovators?. The Journal of Finance, 67(4), 1457-1498.
    Huang, J., & Kisgen, D. J. (2013). Gender and corporate finance: Are male executives overconfident relative to female executives?. Journal of Financial Economics, 108(3), 822-839.
    Ivashina, V., & Scharfstein, D. (2010). Bank lending during the financial crisis of 2008. Journal of Financial Economics, 97(3), 319-338.
    Jensen, M. C., & Meckling, W. H. (1976). Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure. Journal of Financial Economics, 3(4), 305-360.
    Jensen, M. C. (1986). Agency costs of free cash flow, corporate finance, and takeovers. The American Economic Review, 76(2), 323-329.
    Jovanovic, B., & Rousseau, P. L. (2002). The Q-theory of Mergers (No. w8740). National Bureau of Economic Research.
    Kahle, K. M., & Stulz, R. M. (2013). Access to capital, investment, and the financial crisis. Journal of Financial Economics, 110(2), 280-299.
    Lambrecht, B. M. (2004). The timing and terms of mergers motivated by economies of scale. Journal of Financial Economics, 72(1), 41-62.
    Lyon, J. D., Barber, B. M., & Tsai, C. L. (1999). Improved methods for tests of long‐run abnormal stock returns. The Journal of Finance, 54(1), 165-201.
    M&A Statistics-Worldwide, Regions, Industries & Countries. In Institute for Mergers, Acquisitions and Alliances. Retrieved January 23, 2018, from https://imaa-institute.org/mergers-and-acquisitions-statistics/
    Maksimovic, V., & Phillips, G. (2001). The market for corporate assets: Who engages in mergers and asset sales and are there efficiency gains? The Journal of Finance, 56(6), 2019-2065.
    Maksimovic, V., & Phillips, G. (2002). Do conglomerate firms allocate resources inefficiently across industries? Theory and evidence. The Journal of Finance, 57(2), 721-767.
    Maksimovic, V., Phillips, G., & Yang, L. (2013). Private and public merger waves. The Journal of Finance, 68(5), 2177-2217.
    Malmendier, U., & Tate, G. (2005). CEO overconfidence and corporate investment. The Journal of Finance, 60(6), 2661-2700.
    Malmendier, U., & Tate, G. (2008). Who makes acquisitions? CEO overconfidence and the market`s reaction. Journal of Financial Economics, 89(1), 20-43.
    Malmendier, U., & Nagel, S. (2011). Depression babies: do macroeconomic experiences affect risk taking?. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 126(1), 373-416.
    Malmendier, U., Tate, G., & Yan, J. (2011). Overconfidence and early‐life experiences: the effect of managerial traits on corporate financial policies. The Journal of Finance, 66(5), 1687-1733.
    Martynova, M., & Renneboog, L. (2008). A century of corporate takeovers: What have we learned and where do we stand?. Journal of Banking & Finance, 32(10), 2148-2177.
    Masulis, R. W., Wang, C., & Xie, F. (2007). Corporate governance and acquirer returns. The Journal of Finance, 62(4), 1851-1889.
    McDonald, R., & Siegel, D. (1986). The value of waiting to invest. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 101(4), 707-727.
    Mitchell, M. L., & Mulherin, J. H. (1996). The impact of industry shocks on takeover and restructuring activity. Journal of Financial Economics, 41(2), 193-229.
    Moeller, S. B., Schlingemann, F. P., & Stulz, R. M. (2004). Firm size and the gains from acquisitions. Journal of Financial Economics, 73(2), 201-228.
    Næs, R., Skjeltorp, J. A., & Ødegaard, B. A. (2011). Stock market liquidity and the business cycle. The Journal of Finance, 66(1), 139-176.
    Panousi, V., & Papanikolaou, D. (2012). Investment, idiosyncratic risk, and ownership. The Journal of Finance, 67(3), 1113-1148.
    Rhodes‐Kropf, M., & Viswanathan, S. (2004). Market valuation and merger waves. The Journal of Finance, 59(6), 2685-2718
    Richardson, S. (2006). Over-investment of free cash flow. Review of Accounting Studies, 11(2-3), 159-189.
    Rossi, S., & Volpin, P. F. (2004). Cross-country determinants of mergers and acquisitions. Journal of Financial Economics, 74(2), 277-304.
    Schlingemann, F. P., Stulz, R. M., & Walkling, R. A. (2002). Divestitures and the liquidity of the market for corporate assets. Journal of financial Economics, 64(1), 117-144.
    Schwert, G. W. (1989). Why does stock market volatility change over time?. The Journal of Finance, 44(5), 1115-1153.
    Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. W. (2003). Stock market driven acquisitions. Journal of financial Economics, 70(3), 295-311.
    Tversky, A., The Psychology of Risk, in Behavioral Finance and Decision Theory in Investment
    Management, (Charlottesville, VA: AIMR, 1995).
    Whited, T. M., & Wu, G. (2006). Financial constraints risk. The Review of Financial Studies, 19(2), 531-559.
    Xu, E. Q. (2017). Cross-border merger waves. Journal of Corporate Finance, 46, 207-231.
    Yim, S. (2013). The acquisitiveness of youth: CEO age and acquisition behavior. Journal of Financial Economics, 108(1), 250-273.
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    財務管理研究所
    104357025
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0104357025
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[Department of Finance] Theses

    Files in This Item:

    File SizeFormat
    702501.pdf1628KbAdobe PDF2242View/Open


    All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏，無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用，惟仍請適度，合理使用本網站之內容，以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用，則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作，已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益，如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者，請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw)，維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - Feedback