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| Title: | 伊朗對美外交和解政策~魯哈尼總統第一任期JCPOA核協議為例
JCPOA and Iran Deal |
| Authors: | 黃泓聞 |
| Contributors: | 鄧中堅
Teng, C.C.
黃泓聞 |
| Keywords: | 伊朗核協議
伊朗總統 魯哈尼
JCPOA
Rouhani |
| Date: | 2017 |
| Issue Date: | 2017-09-13 15:40:16 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 伊朗與美國，曾經是最緊密的盟邦關係，1979年回教伊斯蘭立憲之後，經歷444天的美國駐德黑蘭大使館人質事件，兩國斷交迄今，已經38個年頭。歐巴馬8年主政後期，熱衷外交破冰，矢志留下任期內多項珍貴的外交遺產。
隨著近年來，緬甸民主化，古巴與美國重新建交，地表上，至今僅存三個國家:伊朗、北韓、不丹，這三地沒有建立美國外交關係。不丹的小國外交跟隨印度政策，毋需多慮；北韓核武及飛彈測試層出不窮，六方會談從上個世紀末延續至今，牽動朝鮮半島局勢甚廣，看來也不是一朝一夕可解；伊朗問題倘若成功達陣，將是歐巴馬總統任內最卓越的外交建樹。
歐巴馬第二任期，任命參議院外交委員會主席出身的凱瑞John KERRY擔任國務卿，致力於中東事務，面對核心的伊朗議題，凱瑞國務卿多次親臨維也納參與JCPOA會談，甚至在2015年7月正式協議敲定前夕，他騎自行車運動不慎摔車，導致腳傷骨折，緊急專機後送回美國就醫，由於正逢協議是否簽訂的敏感時刻，導致外界一度認為JCPOA可能面臨胎死腹中。最後，P5+1與伊朗終於在2015年7月14日簽訂JCPOA核協議。有意無意地，恰巧與標榜自由、平等、博愛的法蘭西國慶日同一天!
經過為期冗長的查核，IAEA國際原子能總署的認證無虞，距離JCPOA簽約屆滿六個月之後，在2016年1月16日，JCPOA核協議正式生效，對伊朗經濟制裁正式解禁。
然則，隨著美國2016年總統大選活動開始，伊朗核議題始終是兩黨候選人主攻的熱門項目，川普批判伊朗，認定伊朗核協議是美國歷史上最糟糕的協議 。多次揚言一旦就任總統，撕毀JCPOA毫不猶豫，川普的電視競選廣告，明白昭示:伊朗就是威脅美國安全的頭號敵人，排名超越北韓。
川普勝選，MAGA, Make America Great Again進入現在進行式，就任隔週，即以反恐之名，暫停三個月對於7個穆斯林國家的簽證核發，同時廢除已核發有效簽證入境，引起軒然大波，其中，影響人數最多的，就是伊朗護照入境美國。
隨著伊朗2017五月的總統大選，如同伊朗國內選民對於JCPOA進行一場變相公投，對於魯哈尼總統對美的外交和解政策，更是一項實質考驗。成敗與否，JCPOA都是關鍵因素，主導伊朗政治經濟的未來。
2017伊朗總統大選的同一天，川普從華府開啟任內第一趟外交之旅，直飛沙烏地阿拉伯首都利雅德，不僅簽下總金額超過美金1100億的軍備合約，還有沙烏地參與美國國內基礎建設2000億美金的投資，在利雅德召開的阿拉伯 穆斯林 美國 高峰會Arab Islamic American Summit，川普登高一呼，儼然成為 孤立伊朗陣營的誓師大會。會議落幕兩週，GCC成員國 卡達0605外交斷交潮湧現，沙烏地王室直指卡達王室暗助ISIS，外界卻解讀:卡達、伊朗雙邊關係緊密，導致GCC成員國自清門戶。隨即，0607伊朗首都德黑蘭發生恐怖攻擊，目標鎖定伊朗國會大樓與何梅尼聖陵。
伊朗與美國外交關係分離38年，時而劍拔弩張，時而和解曙光，未來的十載，不論雙方變化分歧如何，JCPOA核協議勢必扮演關鍵變數。這也是我長期觀察伊朗議題，作為我研究主題的原委，隨著美國國會這段期間持續加大對伊朗核協議監督力道，加上川普本身對以色列勢力的極友好態度，川普任期內的美國伊朗雙方關係，恐怕很難再恢復前任歐巴馬任期最後的大和解氛圍。
最後，我也要特別感謝我的指導教授 鄧中堅博士，過去一年來，孜孜不倦提供外交事務觀點，提攜後輩。還有兩位優秀的論文口試委員: 盧業中博士與 胡瑞舟博士，也提供精闢的學術觀點，在此同時感謝。
Iran and the United States, once the most reliable allies relations. However, the Islamic Islamic Constitution occurred in 1979, experienced 444 days of the US embassy in Tehran hostage, the two countries have been disconnected so far.For the past 38 years. During the President Barack Obama’s eight years, MORE Friends are better than Foes, he determined to leave a number of precious foreign diplomatic LEGACY.
With the recent democratization of Myanmar, Cuba in the half century to rebuild diplomatic relations with US. So far only three countries left : Iran, North Korea and Bhutan,where there are no US diplomatic relations. Bhutan’s diplomacy follows the India policy, no need to worry about; North Korea nuclear weapons and missile testing seems endless, six-party talks back to 1990s, still with affecting to the Korean Peninsula, the situation is very wide, it’s hard to find the instant solution; Seeming if the problem of Iran, The array will be the most outstanding diplomatic mission to President Barack Obama.
Obama`s second term, the appointment of the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman John KERRY, as Secretary of State, especially in charge of the Middle East affairs. He focused of the core of the Iranian issue, many times in Vienna to participate in the JCPOA talks. Even on the eve of the formal agreement, his foot was injured because of bicycle crash. When Secretary KERRY was sent back to the United States for medical treatment, whether the contract signed or not, such a sensitive moment, many analysists thought that JCPOA may face to the END. Fortunely, P5 + 1 and Iran finally signed JCPOA on July 14th, just the same National Day with FRANCE, which stands for Liberté, Égalité, Fraternité.
After a long term verification and certification by IAEA ,International Atomic Energy Agency`s. On the January 16, 2016, JCPOA agreement came into effect, the Iranian economic sanctions officially lifted. However, with the beginning of the US presidential election in 2016, the Iranian nuclear issue has always been a popular project of the two party candidates, TRUMP criticized Iran, that the Iranian nuclear agreement is one of the worst of the US agreement history. He threatened to tear up JCPOA many times. TRUMP’s television campaign advertising, clearly that: Iran is the number one threat to US security enemy, ranking above North Korea.
Since TRUMP won the election，MAGA, Make America Great Again, moving into the current processing, just 5 days after the Inauguration, he suspended for three months for seven Muslim countries issued a visa, and abolished has issued a valid visa entry. Meanwhile, the largest number is the Iranian passport entry to the United States….because of Anti-Terrorism.
With the Iranian 2017 Presidential election in May, similar to Iran`s domestic voters for JCPOA, still a GOOD DEAL or NOT? For President Rouhani`s diplomatic reconciliation policy to the United States, is also a true REVIEW by all Iranian Citizens. Success or Failure, JCPOA is the key factor, leading the future of Iran`s Politic and Economy.
On Friday , May 19th, 2017, the same day for Iran`s Presidential Election day, TRUMP opened the first official foreign trip as the 45th US President, flying directly to Saudi Arabia`s capital Riyadh. More than winning the 110 billion US dollars of military contracts, Saudi agreed to participate US domestic infrastructure investment of 200 billion US dollars. During the Arab Islamic American Summit, TRUMP’s speech reflected to be the isolation of the IRAN. Just 2 weeks later, Qatar faced the diplomatic dispute between 9 countries, because of the Saudi decision. Not only Qatar royal family sponsored the ISIS, but also Qatar try to strengthen Iran bilateral relations. Meanwhile, Tehran city was under the terrorist attacks, targeting the Iranian parliament building and the Khomeini Holy Mausoleum.
Iran and the United States diplomatic relations separated 38 years, Mostly tense, sometimes relax. In the next decade, regardless of differences between the two sides how, JCPOA is bound to play a key factor. This is also my long-term observation of the IRAN issue.
I specially thank to my instructor Dr. C.C. TENG. For the past 12 months, he provided Professional Diplomatic viewpoints to me. And furthermore, two excellent Scholars: Dr. Y.C. Lu and Dr. R.C. Hu, both point a brilliant academic point of view. Thanks YOU ALL. |
| Reference: | 參考書目:
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Dershowitz, Alan. The Case against The IRAN DEAL. New York: A Gatestone Institute Publication, 2015
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
外交學系戰略與國際事務碩士在職專班
100922008 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1009220081 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [戰略與國際事務碩士在職專班] 學位論文
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