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    题名: 習近平主政後中美南海政策之研究
    A Study of Sino - American Policy Towards the South China Sea after Xi Jinping `s Reign
    作者: 陳忠溪
    Chen, Chung Hsi
    贡献者: 朱新民
    陳忠溪
    Chen, Chung Hsi
    关键词: 中共南海政策
    美國重返亞洲戰略
    南海主權
    南海九段線
    The CPC South China policy
    The United States to return to Asia strategy
    The South China Sea sovereignty
    South China Sea Jiuduan line
    日期: 2017
    上传时间: 2017-08-10 10:15:39 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 2013年3月14日,習近平成為中共的最高領導人,不同於前幾代中國大陸領導人,習近平提出了「中國夢」的願景,不僅為主導與型塑著習近平時代中共的對外政策、戰略規劃與全球佈局,且其的內涵伴隨著情勢發展和現實需要不斷的擴充,不僅積極應處周邊關係,穩定亞太地區、妥善處理海權爭議、牽制美國亞太「再平衡」戰略,並向西推進「一帶一路」戰略。
    而在亞太地區被公認為世界經濟發動的火車頭之際,「重返亞洲」則成美國最重要的外交目標。歐巴馬政府重新調整外交政策,強調透過盟友、國際制度、謹慎的外交及道德理想的力量來爭取他人認同美國的目標,藉此促進本身的利益;同時,藉由增加在該地區的政治、經濟和軍事投入,逐漸提升其他國家對於美國的信任,藉此鞏固美國的領導地位。
    美中雙方為何這麼在意在南海區域的發展及權利伸張,美國在仲裁案後特別強調南海是美國「最高國家利益」,而中方也早早就說過南海是中國的「核心利益」,如此是否註定中美兩方必在南海地區發生權力爭奪戲碼,不禁令人要問美、中雙方到底誰才是破壞南海和平或南海秩序的國家?
    南海究竟具備什麼樣的地理特性或其他重要的條件,讓世界的霸權及崛起的強權交集的南海地區,而使這個地區被學者示警南海恐成第3次世界大戰舞臺。
    On March 14, 2013, Xi Jinping became the supreme leader of the Chinese Communist Party. Unlike the leaders of the previous generation of mainland China, Xi Jinping put forward the vision of "Chinese Dream", not only for the foreign policy and strategic planning And the global layout, and its connotation along with the development of the situation and the reality needs to continue to expand, not only actively should be peripheral relations, stability in the Asia-Pacific region, properly handle the sea dispute, contain the US Asia-Pacific "rebalancing" strategy, and westward " Along the way "strategy.
    In the Asia-Pacific region is recognized as the world economy launched the locomotive, the "return to Asia" has become the United States the most important diplomatic goals. The Obama administration has reoriented its foreign policy by emphasizing the goal of the United States through its allies, international regimes, prudent diplomatic and moral ideals, to promote its own interests; by increasing the political, Economic and military investment, and gradually enhance the confidence of other countries for the United States, to consolidate the US leadership.
    Why the United States and China are concerned about the development of the South China Sea region and the right to extend the United States in the arbitration case, especially stressed that the South China Sea is the United States "the highest national interest", and the Chinese side has long said that the South China Sea is China`s "core interests", so destined China and the United States will be in the South China Sea area of power to compete for drama, can not help but to ask the United States, the two sides in the end who is the destruction of the South China Sea peace or the South China Sea order of the country?
    The South China Sea has what kind of geographical features or other important conditions, so that the world`s hegemony and the rise of the power of the intersection of the South China Sea region, leaving the region by the students to warn the South China Sea fear of the third World War stage.
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    二、英文文獻
    (一)英文專書
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    Hans J. Morgenthau, Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace(New York: Knopf, 1978).
    Jacek Kugler and Douglas Lemke eds., Parity and War Evaluations and Extensions of “The War Ledger” (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1996). pp. 3~33.
    Kimie Hara,Cold War Frontiers in the Asia-Pacific: Divided Territories in the San Francisco System,Routledge,London and New York,2007,pp.146-153.
    Marwyn S. Samuels, Contests for the South China Sea (New York: Methuen, 1982).
    Randall L. Schweller, Deadly Imbalances: Tripolarity and Hitler Strategy of World Conquest (New York: Columbia University, 1998).
    Robert Sutter,Chin-Hao Huang,“China-Southeast Asia Relations: Senior Officials Visits; South China Sea Tensions”,China-Southeast Asia Relations,July 2010。
    Robert Gilpin, “The Theory of Hegemonic War,” in Robert I. Rotberg and Theodore K. Rabb eds., The Origin and Prevention of Major War (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1988), pp. 15~37.
    Robert Gilpin, The Political Economy of International Relations (Princeton: Princeton University Press,1987), pp. 86~87.
    Robert Gilpin, War and Change in World Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1981),p.116.
    Robert O. Keohane, After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy (NJ:Princeton University Press, 1984).
    Tammen, Ronald L., Jacek Kugler, Douglas Lemke, Allan C. Stam III, Mark Adsollahian, Carole Alsharabti, Brian Efird and A. F. K. Organski, Power Transitions: Strategy for the 21st Century (New York: Chatham House Publishers of Seven Bridges Press, 2000).
    US Department of Defense,“The Asia-Pacific Maritime Se-curity Strategy: Achieving U.S. National Security Objectives in AChanging Environment”,Washington DC,August 2015,p.1.

    (二)英文期刊
    “This is the Season”, FEER, Dec. 24, 1998, p.18.
    A. F. K. Organski, World Politics (New York: Knopf, 1958), pp. 345~346.
    A.F.K. Organiski and Jacek Kugler, The War Ledger (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1980),p.175.
    Admiral Harry B. Harris,Jr.,Commander,U.S.Pacific Fleet,Remarks to ustralian Strategic Policy Institute,Canberra,Aus-tralia,March 31,2015,Quoted in Ronald O`Rurke,“Maritime Ter-ritorial and Exclusive Economic Zone ( EEZ) Disputes Involving Chi-na: Issues for Congress”,CRS Report,June 1,2015,p.62.
    Andrew T H Tan ,“The US and China in the Malay Archipelago”, Asia-Pacific Review, vol.17,No.2, 2010,pp.26-55.
    Ang Cheng Guan,“The South China Sea Dispute Re-visited ”, IDSS Working Paper Series (1999), p.1.
    Ang Cheng Guan,“The South China Sea Dispute Re-visited ”,IDSS Working Paper Series 999).
    China and The United States: From Hostility to Engagement, 1968-1998,(Micron Film), No.01828。
    Dave Finkelstein, “Is China Getting Assertive on Territorial Disputes?”, Roundtable: The South China Sea and U.S.-China-ASEAN Relations , CSIS ,October 28, 2011。
    Denny Roy,“Southeast Asia and China: Balancing or Bandwagoning?” Contemporary Southeast Asia , Vol. 27, No. 2 .2005.
    Diane K. Mauzy and Brian L. Job, “U.S. Policy in Southeast Asia: Limited Re-engagement after Years of Benign Neglect”, Asian Survey, Vol. 47, No. 4 (July/August 2007), pp.632, 628-629。
    Dustin E. Wallace,“An Analysis of Chinese MaritimeClaims in the South China Sea ”,Naval Law Review,Vol. 63,No.128,2014,pp.132-135.
    Ely Ratner, et al., “More Willing and Able: ChartingChina`s International Security Activism”,Center for a New AmericanSecurity,May 2015。
    Ely Ratner,“A Summer Calendar for Advancing U.S.Policy toward the South China Sea”,Center for a New American Security,May 2014,pp.1-9。
    Eric Morris. Brunei Seeks Security in an Unstable Region. International Defense Review, Vol. 25, No. 2
    Evan Braden Montgomery,“Contested Primacy in the West-ern Pacific: China`s Rise and the Future of U. S. Power Projection”,International Security,Vol.38,No.4,Spring 2014,pp.115-149.
    Fareed Zakaria, “Realism and Domestic Politics:A Review Essay,” International Security, Vol. 17, No. 1 (1992), pp. 177~198.
    Gao Zhiguo and Jia Bing Bing,“The Nine-DashLine in the South China Sea: History,Status,and Implications”,TheAmerican Journal of International Law,Vol. 107,No. 98,2013,pp.101-103
    Gideon Rose, “Neoclassical Realism and Theory of Foreign Policy,” World Politics, Vol 51, No. 1(Octobor 1988), p. 147
    Howard W. French,“The South China Sea Could Become a Dangerous Contest of Military Might ”,Foreign Policy,June 5,2015。
    Ian James Storey, “Creeping Assertiveness: China, the Philippines and the South China Sea Dispute”, Contemporary Southeast Asia, Vol. 21, No. 1 (April 1999), pp.109-111。
    International Crisis Group, Stirring up the South China Sea (I), Asia Report N°223, 23 Apr 2012.
    Jian, Sanqiang, “Multinational oil companies and the Spratly dispute”, Journal of Contemporary China, Vol.6, Nov, 1997.
    Kenneth Waltz, “Structural Realism after the Cold War,” International Security, Vol.25, No. 1 (Summer 2000), pp. 5~41.。
    Kurt Campell, “China’s challenge and Asia’s Rise: The case for U.S. Strategic Reengagement in the Asia-Pacific Region ”, Congressional Testimony, U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, May 15th 2008。
    Kurt Campell, “China’s challenge and Asia’s Rise: The case for U.S. Strategic Reengagement in the Asia-Pacific Region ”, Congressional Testimony, U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, May 15th 2008.
    Lee Lai,“China, the USA and the South China Sea Conflicts”,Security Dialogue Vol. 34, No. 1, March 2003.
    Marius Gjetnes, “The Spratlys: Are they Rocks or Islands ?,” Ocean Development and International Law, Vol. 32, No. 2, 2001, pp. 191-204.
    Martin H. Katchen, “The Spratly Islands and the Law of the Sea: "Dangerous Ground" for Asian Peace”, Asian Survey, Vol. 17, No. 12 (Dec., 1977), p. 1178.
    Murray Hiebert , Greg Poling,“ASEAN and the South China Sea”, Roundtable: The South China Sea and U.S.-China-ASEAN Relations , CSIS , October 28, 2011。
    oshua P. Rowan,“The U.S.-JAPAN Security Alliance, ASEAN, And The South China Sea Dispute”,Asian Survey, Vol. 45, Issue 3, May/June 2005.
    Patrick M. Cronin,Testimony before Subcommittee on Asiaand Pacific,House Committee on Foreign Affairs,“America`s SecurityRole in the South China Sea”,July 23,2015,p.6。
    Patrick M.Cronin,“US Should Help Vietnam CounterChina`s Coercion ”,Asia Pacific Bulletin,No.269,June 26,2014,pp.1-2.
    Phiphat Tangsubkul , Frances Lai Fung-wai ,“The New Law of the Sea and Development in Southeast Asia”, Asian Survey, Vol. 23, No. 7 (Jul., 1983), pp.868-872.
    R. Marlay, “China, the Philippines, and the Spratly Islands”, Asian Affairs: An American Review, Vol.23, No. 4, 1997, pp.195-210.
    Ralph Cossa ,Brad Glosserman,“Return to Asia: It’s Not (All) About China”,Pac Net No.7, Jan 30, 2012. ( Pacific Forum CSIS).
    Randall Schweller, “Unanswered Threats: A Neoclassical Realist Theory of Underbalancing,”International Security, Vol. 29, No. 2 (2004), pp. 168~181.
    Ronald O`Rourke,“Maritime Territorial and Exclusive Eco-nomic Zone ( EEZ) Disputes Involving China: Issues for Congress”,CRS Report,June 1,2015。
    RP Ready to Build in Spratlys. Manila Times, June 24 1999.
    Sam La Grone,“U.S.7th Fleet Would Support ASEAN South ChinaSea Patrols”,USNI News,March 20,2015。
    Suzanne Nossel, “Smart Power,” Foreign Affairs, Vol.83, No.2 (2004), pp.131-142.
    The Third Workshop on Managing Potential Conflicts in the South China Sea, Yogyakarta, June 28-July 21992, p. 21
    Toshi Yoshihara,James R. Holmes,“Can China Defend a “Core Interest” in the South China Sea?”, The Washington Quarterly, Vol.34, No.2, Spring 2011.
    Zulkifli Talib, “Accord on the Spratlys,” The Star, January 22, 1992, p. 1.

    (三)網路資料
    Ames Hookway,“Tribunal Rules It can Arbitrate South ChinaSea Dispute”,The Wall Street Journal,Oct. 30,2015,http: / / www.wsj.com / articles / u-n-court-rules-it-can-arbitrate-south-china-sea-dis-pute-1446175002 .
    Barack Obama,“Remarks by President Obama and PresidentBenigno Aquino III of the Philippines in Joint Press Conference ”,April 28,2014,Manila,Philippines,https: / / www. whitehouse.gov /the-press-office /2014 /04 /28 / emarks-president-obama-and-president-benigno-aquino-iii-philippines-joi.
    Brunei. From http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/brunei.html.
    Christopher C. Joyner,“The Spratly Islands Dispute in the South China Sea: Problems, Policies, and Prospects for Diplomatic Accommodation”, www.southchinasea.org/.../Joyner,%20Spratly%20Islands%。
    Daniel R. Russel,Assistant Secretary,Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs ,Testimony before the House Foreign Affairs Com-mittee Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific,Washington,DC ,April23,2015,http: / / www.state.gov / p / eap / rls / rm /2015 /04 /241017.htm.
    Daniel R. Russel,Assistant Secretary,Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs,“Rmarks at the Fifth Annual South China SeaConference ”,The Center for Strategic and nternational Studies,Washington DC,July 21,2015,http: / / www.state.gov / p / eap / ls /rm /2015 /07 /245142.htm.
    Daniel R. Russel,Assistant Secretary,Bureau of East Asianand Pacific Affairs,Testimony efore the Senate Foreign RelationsCommittee,“Maritime Issues in East Asia ”,Washington C,May13,2015,http: / / www.state.gov / p / eap / rls / rm /2015 /05 /242262.htm.
    Hillary Rodham Clinton, “Press Availability”, July23,2010, National Convention Center Hanoi, Vietnam, http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2010/07/145095.htm。
    Hillary R.Clinton,“Remarks at National Convention Cen-ter”,Hanoi,Vietnam,July 23,2010,http: / / www. State. gov / secre-tary /20092013clinton / rm /2010 /07 /145095. htm.
    http://www.crisisgroup.org/en/regions/asia/north-east-asia/china/223-stirring-up-the-south-china-sea-i.aspx
    http://www.gov.cn/xwfb/2012-07/26/content_2192589.htm
    James Holmes and Toshi Yoshihara, “A Chinese Turn to Mahan?,”China Brief, Vol.9, No.13 (June 24, 2009).http://news.takungpao.com.hk/military/view/2013-10/1994657.html
    John F. Copper,“Why We Need Taiwan,”National Interest, August 29, 2011,http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/why-we-need-taiwan-5815.
    John Kerry,“Remarks at Intervention at the East Asia Sum-mit”,Kuala Lumpur,Malaysia,August 6,2015,http: / / wwwstate.gov / secretary / remarks /2015 /08 245758.htm。
    John Kerry,“Remarks with Philippine Foreign Secretary Al-bert del Rosario”,December 17,2013,http: / / www.state.gov / secre-tary / remarks /2013 /12 /218835.htm。
    Michael Fuchs,“Remarks at Fourth Annual South China SeaConference”,Center for Strategic and International Studies,Washing-ton DC,July 11,2014,http: / / www.state.gov / p / eap / rls / rm /2014 /07 /229129。
    People`s Republic of China,Letter to the U. N. SecretaryGeneral,Doc. CML /17 /2009,7 May,2009,http: / / www.un.org /Depts / los / clcs _ new / submissions _ files / mysvnm33 _ 09 / chn _ 2009re _mys_vnm_e.pdf.
    Peter Lewis Young. The Potential for Conflict in the South China Sea. Asian Defence Journal, November 1995, p. 26; Malaysia. From http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/malaysia.html。
    Prashanth Parameshwaran,“US Launches New Maritime Se-curity Initiatives at Shangri-La Dialogue 2015 ”,The Diplomat,June2, 2015, http: / / thediplomat.com /2015 /06 / us-launches-new-mari-time-security-initiative-at-shangri-la-dialogue-2015 / .
    Ralf Emmers,“The Changing Power Distribution in the South China Sea: Implications for Conflict Management and Avoidance”, http://www.policypointers.org/Page/View/10078.
    Robert D. Kaplan,“The Geography of Chinese Power: How Far Can Beijing Reach on Land and at Sea?,”Foreign Affairs, May/June 2010,http://terpconnect.umd.edu/~kmcm/Articles/The%20Geography%20of%20Chinese%20Power.pdf.
    Tran Truong Thuy,“Recent Developments in the South China Sea: Implications for Regional Security and Cooperation”, http://csis.org/publication/recent-developments-south-china-sea-implications-regional-security-and-cooperation。

    (四)英文報刊
    Aileen San Pablo-Baviera. (Ed.). 1992. The South China Sea Disputes: Philippine Perspectives. Manila: Philippine-China Development Resource Center and the Philippine Association for Chinese Studies, 1992, part VI
    Abby Tan. 1995. Manila Uses Tourism Veil to Reinforce Claim on Islands. New Straits Times July:15.
    Manila Welcome Other Joining Spratlys Ventures. Straits Times, September 11 1995 p. 19
    RP Welcomes Joint Ventures in Spratlys. Philippine Star, September 11 1995. p. 1.
    “Plans for Air Bases on Spratlys a Cause for Concern: Hanoi,” Straits Times, July 16, 1993, p. 7.
    Edward Wong, “Chinese Military Seeks to Extend Its Naval Power,” New York Times, April 23, 2010。
    KL Deceived Us in Pawikan Shoal—RP. Manila Times, June 25 1999; Manila, KL Told: China Owns Shoals. Philippine Daily Inquirer, June 30 1999。
    KL Developing Resort in Spratly Islands. Straits Times, May 4 1991, p. 2.
    Manila Blasts PRC Markers in Spratlys. China News, June 16, 1995, p. 1
    Ramos Calls on Spratly Claimants to Pull Troops Out. Straits Times, March 30 1994, p. 12.
    Sam La Grone,“U.S.Destroyer Made an‘Innocent Passage`Near Chinese South China Sea Artificial Island in Recent Mission ”,USNI News,Nov.2,2015。
    Too Much Made of Problem with Spratlys-Mahathir. Straits Times, August 22 1993, p. 17.
    U.S. Energy Information Administration, South China Sea: Oil & Natural Gas (March 2008); and Robert D. Kaplan, “China’s Caribbean”, The Washington Post, September 26, 2010.
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