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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/111535


    Title: 貸款成數、加碼利率與房價的動態調整
    Loan-to-value ratio, mark-up rate and housing price dynamics
    Authors: 彭思瑾
    Peng, Ssu Chin
    Contributors: 賴景昌
    彭思瑾
    Peng, Ssu Chin
    Keywords: 動態調整
    宣示效果
    貸款成數
    加碼利率
    Dynamic adjustment
    Policy announcement
    Loan-to-value ratio
    Mark-up rate
    Date: 2017
    Issue Date: 2017-07-31 11:19:58 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本論文將Poterba(1984)所建構的房屋市場模型由部分均衡擴展為一般均衡，引入貸款成數及加碼利率做宣示效果分析。探討民眾在未預料到和預料到的兩種情況下，貸款成數及加碼利率變動對房價和房屋存量的影響，可得到結論如下：
    一、當貸款成數降低時，不論房量變動的正負效果相對大小如何，均會使長期的房屋價格下跌和房屋存量減少。
    二、當加碼利率提高時，在加碼利率變動的正效果大於負效果的情況下，長期的房屋存量和房屋價格均上升；反之，當加碼利率變動的正效果小於負效果，長期的房屋存量和房屋價格均會減少。
    三、政府可利用降低貸款成數達到抑制房價的政策目標；但若要以提高加碼利率達成抑制房價的目標，則要視加碼利率的正負效果相對大小而定。
    四、政策宣告會改變民眾的預期，促使房價於政策宣告後立即跳動，並在政策執行前就已對房屋存量和房價做出反應。在宣告降低貸款成數的瞬間，房價會有跳躍性減少的情況；但在宣告提高加碼利率的瞬間，房價則視加碼利率變動的正負效果相對大小，有跳躍性上升或下降的情況。
    This thesis extends the housing market model pioneered by Poterba(1984) from a partial equilibrium analysis to a general equilibrium analysis. The purpose of this thesis is to analyze how the anticipated and unanticipated policies of the loan-to-value ratio and the mark-up rate govern the transitional dynamics of housing prices and the housing stock.
    There are two main findings emerge from the analysis. First, a reduction in the loan-to-value ratio leads to a decline in both of housing prices and the housing stock, regardless of whether the increased loan-to value ratio is beneficial or harmful to the return on housing. Second, in response to a rise in the mark-up rate, whether the steady-state housing prices and the housing stock go up or go down depends on the mark-up rate effect. Both housing prices and the housing stock go up if the increased mark-up rate contributes a positive effect on the return of holding houses. By contrast, the steady-state housing prices and the housing stock go down if the increased mark-up rate causes a negative effect on the return on housing holdings.
    Reference: 一、中文部分
    王佩翎(2014)，「房貸利率、消費者物價指數與房價關係之探索-VAR模型分析」，世新大學經濟研究所碩士論文。
    孫鈺峰、胡士文(2006)，「農業生物科技補貼政策與農業內生成長：環保內生成長的應用」，《農業經濟半年刊》，第八十期，23-58。
    陳柏如(2015)，「台灣房價與貸款成數、房屋使用者成本相關性的檢驗」，台北大學經濟學系出版。
    張嘉純(2010)，「台灣房地產價格與房屋貸款之關聯性硏究」，國立台灣大學國家發展研究所碩士論文。
    魏新翰(2013)，「購物貸款利率和貨幣供給對房價之影響-平滑轉移自我回歸模型之應用」，國立中山大學財務管理學系研究所碩士論文。
    二、英文部分
    DiPasquale, D. and Wheaton, W. C., (1996), Urban Economics and Real Estate Markets. New Jersey: Preentice-Hall.
    Duca, J. V. Muellbauer and Murphy A.,(2011),“House Prices and Credit Constraints: Marking Sense of the US Experience,” The Economic Journal, 121, 533-551.
    Jud, D., Winkler, D., (2002),“The Dynamics of Metropolitan Housing Prices,”Journal of Real Estate Research, 23, 29-45.
    Kostas, T., (2004),“What Drives Housing Price Dynamics: Cross-Country Evidence,”Bank of International Settlements Quarterly Review.
    Poterba, J. M., (1984),“Tax Subsidies to Owner-Occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach,”Quarterly Journal of Economics, 99, 729-752.
    Robert, T. and Rosen, S., (1988),“Housing Investment in the United States,” Journal of Political Economy, 96, 718-740.
    三、網站部分
    中央銀行全球資訊網http://www.cbc.gov.tw/mp.asp?mp=1
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    經濟學系
    104258037
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1042580371
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[Department of Economics] Theses

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