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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/111178
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| Title: | 依時變動函式的學習：實徵資料與理論模型 |
| Other Titles: | Psychological Foundation of Forecasting |
| Authors: | 楊立行
Yang, Lee-Xieng |
| Contributors: | 心理系 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| Issue Date: | 2017-07-14 09:09:29 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 本次研究主題為預測（forecasting）的心理機制。由於預測是人類很基本的認知功能，且幾乎在各個環境中都需要預測，探究人類究竟如何能對未來事件進行預測很具有基礎科學研究的價值。在過去這類的研究較常見於經濟學的研究，像是對股市的預測。然而，一般預測研究的作法是提供實驗參與者所有的歷史資料，再進行未來的預測，例如，預測下週開盤的股價。這樣的預測似乎很需要專業知識才能進行；然而，廣大的投資群眾並非都具有商業的專業知識，但他們就算只觀察一小波段的股價走勢圖，也能大致預測股價的漲跌。顯然這樣的預測有更為先天不需依賴專業知識的成份。因此，本研究以實證實驗針對實驗參與者，測量他們在動態預測作業中的表現。為求精確並排除專業知識涉入的可能，本研究實驗要求參與者以滑鼠點擊他們認為標靶會出現的位置。標靶出現的位置，則是由不同的函式定義。研究結果發現，只要前後兩次標靶出現的位置具有高相關，參與者便能正確學會預測函式。同時，本研究發展了一個簡單的類神經網路說明人類是如何習得預測。僅管如此，本研究並非否定專業知識對預測的重要。這樣的結果不僅延伸了函式學習的範圍，也替預測找到心理運作機制。同時，也對未來的預測研究開啟了新的研究方向。 Forecasting is referred to predicting the future status of a variable according to a series of its historical statuses. Normally, forecasting is thought to be more relevant to decision making, specifically in the field of economics. For instance, the trend of the stock price in the past six months often is used as an index to forecast the current price. Although forecasting the price of a stock market requires domain knowledge (e.g., economics), to a normal person, it can be realized as a job just to predict the future value according to the previous values. In psychology, this is a case of function learning in that yt = f(yt?1,yt?2,···). In this study, with this position held, it is demonstrated that forecasting can have a simple associative account, just like function learning, and can be directed by a partially relevant context cue, regardless of the true forecasting function, just like knowledge partitioning. |
| Relation: | 科技部
104-2410-H-004-048 |
| Data Type: | report |
| Appears in Collections: | [心理學系] 國科會研究計畫
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Files in This Item:
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| 104-2410-H-004-048.pdf | | 477Kb | Adobe PDF2 | 339 | View/Open |
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