政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/110719

政大典藏 > College of International Affairs > International Master`s Program in International Studies > Theses > Item 140.119/110719

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/110719

Title:	新古典現實主義與俄羅斯外交政策 Neoclassical Realism and Russian Foreign Policy
Authors:	帕維爾希瑟克 Hysek, Pavel
Contributors:	林永芳 Lin, Yung-Fang 帕維爾希瑟克 Hysek, Pavel
Keywords:	新古典現實主義俄羅斯外交政策 2008年南奧塞提亞戰爭 2014年克里米亞危機領導者形象戰略文化 Neoclassical realism Russian foreign policy Russo-Georgian War in 2008 Annexation of Crimea in 2014 Leader images Strategic Culture
Date:	2017
Issue Date:	2017-07-03 14:46:42 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	本論文旨在探討俄羅斯外交政策之動機與推動因素，文中以新古典現實主義做為研究架構，並結合了體系層次因素（自變項）及個體層次的中介變項（如：領導人形象和戰略文化）。本論文所探討之時間軸橫跨1991至2014年，重點著重於以下兩研究案例：2008年南奧塞提亞戰爭及2014年克里米亞危機。針對此兩研究案例，作者使用「過程追蹤」和「歷史敘事」的研究方法，以驗證體系與個體層次因素對於俄羅斯外交政策的影響。分析結果印證了新古典現實主義的主要假設：俄羅斯在相對物質權力提升的情況下，會同樣地擴大外交政策行動上的野心與版圖。雖然由第一個研究案例可得知，所謂的體系修正因素（如：地理位置、限制/允許因素、和體系明確性）對於俄羅斯介入喬治亞的決策有著重要的影響。而第二個假設提到，「總統普丁選擇設計、校正、調整策略上的選擇，反映文化上可接受的偏好，以維持國內的政治支持度」這個說法也已經被印證。本研究分析顯示，體系因素和個體層次中介變項對於2008年介入喬治亞及2014年併吞克里米亞的決策皆有影響。整體而言，當分析一個國家的外交政策時，新古典現實主義確實是個強而有力的架構，但作者也深知仍有進一步研究的必要。 This thesis aims at contributing to the debate on the motives and drivers of Russian foreign policy. It uses neoclassical realism as an enhanced research framework which combines systemic stimuli (independent variable) and unit-level intervening variables such as leader images and strategic culture. The work investigates the period from 1991 to 2014 with focus on two case studies, namely the Russo-Georgian war in 2008 and the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation in 2014. This two case studies use process-tracing method and historiography to test the effect of systemic and unit level factors on the Russian foreign policy. The analysis has confirmed the main neoclassical realist expectation that an increase in the relative material power of the Russian Federation will lead to a corresponding expansion in the ambition and scope of Russian foreign policy activity. Although, especially the first case study showed, that the so called systemic modifiers, such as geography, restrictiveness/permissiveness and systemic clarity had significant effect on the decision to intervene in Georgia. The second hypothesis stating that, “President Putin chooses to frame, adjust, and modify strategic choices to reflect culturally acceptable preferences to maintain domestic political support” was also confirmed. The analysis has shown that both systemic stimuli and unit level intervening variables influenced the final decision to intervene in Georgia in 2008, and to annex Crimea in 2014. Overall, neoclassical realism proved to be enhanced and a useful framework for analyzing foreign policy of a state. But the author is fully aware that a further research is needed.
Reference:	Address by President of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Kremlin, March 18, 2014. http://eng.kremlin.ru/news/6889 Albats, Yevgenia, and Catherine A Fitzpatrick. 1994. "The State Within a State: The KGB and Its Hold on Russia—Past." Present, and Future (New York, Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 1994). Allenova, Olga. 2008. "The First Peacekeeping War - Russia and Georgia Are Fighting for South Ossetia." Kommersant, 9 August 2008. Accessed 28 April 2017. Allison, Roy. 2008. "Russia resurgent? Moscow`s campaign to ‘coerce Georgia to peace’." International affairs 84 (6):1145-1171. Allison, Roy. 2009. "The Russian case for military intervention in Georgia: international law, norms and political calculation." European Security 18 (2):173-200. doi: 10.1080/09662830903468734. Ambrosio, Thomas. 2008. "Catching the ‘Shanghai spirit’: how the Shanghai Cooperation Organization promotes authoritarian norms in Central Asia." Europe-Asia Studies 60 (8):1321-1344. Amos, Howard. "Ukraine crisis fuels secession calls in pro-Russian south." The Guardian 23 (2014). Arias-King, Fredo, Arlene King De Arias, and Fredo Arias De La Canal. 2008. "Russia`s Borderline Personality." Demokratizatsiya 16 (2):117. Ashley, Richard K. 1984. "The poverty of neorealism." International organization 38 (02):225-286. Asmus, Ronald. A little war that shook the world. 1st ed. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2010, 255 Baev, Pavel K. Russian energy policy and military power: Putin`s quest for greatness. Abingdon: Routledge, 2012. Bailes, Alyson JK, Pál Dunay, Pan Guang, and Mikhail Troitskiy. 2007. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Stockholm. Balmforth, R. 2014. "No room for`Nyet`in Ukraine`s Crimea vote to join Russia." Reuters Online Edition 11. Becker, Michael E., Matthew S. Cohen, Sidita Kushi, and Ian P. McManus. 2016. "Reviving the Russian empire: the Crimean intervention through a neoclassical realist lens." European Security 25 (1):112-133. doi: 10.1080/09662839.2015.1084290. Brown, Michael Edward, Sean M. Lynn-Jones, and Steven E. Miller. The perils of anarchy: contemporary realism and international security. MIT Press, 1995. Bruce Ware, Robert. 2005. "Revisiting Russia`s Apartment Block Blasts." Journal of Slavic Military Studies 18 (4):599-606. Carr, Edward Hallett. "The twenty years` crisis, 1919-1939: an introduction to the study of international relations." (1946). Chappell, Bill. 2014. Putin Says Those Aren`t Russian Forces In Crimea. Accessed 24 April 2017. doi:http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2014/03/04/285653335/putin-says-those-arent-russian-forces-in-crimea. Christensen, Thomas J. 1996. Useful adversaries: Grand strategy, domestic mobilization, and Sino-American conflict, 1947-1958: Princeton University Press. Coalson, Robert. 2007. Russia: Why The Chekist Mind-Set Matters. Accessed 17. April 2017. Cohen, Roger. 1993. "Yeltsin opposes expansion of NATO in Eastern Europe." The New York Times 2. Cornell, Svante E, and S Frederick Starr. 2009. The guns of August 2008. London, England: ME Sharpe. Declaration, Bucharest Summit. "Issued by the Heads of State and Government participating in the meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Bucharest on 3 April 2008." Rasta: http://www. nato. int/cps/en/SID-5805A1C1-9F4E4956/natolive/official_texts_8443. htm (2008). Donnelly, Jack. 1998. "Realism: Roots and Renewal." Review of Realism: Restatements and Renewal, Benjamin Frankel; Roots of Realism, Benjamin Frankel. Review of International Studies 24 (3):399-405. Dubnov, Arkady. 2008. "Peace Without Point 6 - South Ossetia Awaits a New Peacekeeping Format." Vremya novostei, 14 August 2008. Accessed 22 March 2017. Dueck, Colin. Reluctant crusaders: power, culture, and change in American grand strategy. Princeton University Press, 2008. Eitelhuber, Norbert. 2009. "The Russian Bear: Russian strategic culture and what it implies for the West." Connections: The Quarterly Journal 9 (1):1. Elder, Miriam. 2011. "Vladimir Putin Accuses Hillary Clinton of Encouraging Russian Protests." The Guardian. Elman, Colin. 1996. "Horses for courses: Why nor neorealist theories of foreign policy?" Security Studies 6 (1):7-53. doi: 10.1080/09636419608429297. Europa. 2010. "EU‑Russia political and security committee." European Parliament, accessed 27 April. http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/getDoc.do?pubRef=-//EP//TEXT+WQ+E-2010-8055+0+DOC+XML+V0//EN&language=MT. Galeotti, Mark. 2015. "Hybrid War’and ‘Little Green Men’—How it Works and How it Doesn’t." Ukraine and Russia: People, Politics, Propaganda and Perspectives 156. Gidadhubli, RG. 2007. "Boris Yeltsin`s Controversial Legacy." Economic and Political Weekly:1818-1820. Gilpin, Robert. 1983. War and change in world politics: Cambridge University Press. Graham Jr, Thomas, and Damien J LaVera. 2011. Cornerstones of security: arms control treaties in the nuclear era: University of Washington Press. Gray, Colin S. 1981. "National style in strategy: The American example." International security 6 (2):21-47. Grieco, Joseph M. 1988. "Anarchy and the limits of cooperation: a realist critique of the newest liberal institutionalism." International organization 42 (03):485-507. Gutterman, Steve, and Gleb Bryanski. 2011. "Putin Says US Stoked Russian Protests." Thomson Reuters 12 (8). Hanson, Victor Davis, and Robert B Strassler. 1998. The landmark Thucydides: A comprehensive guide to the Peloponnesian War: Simon and Schuster. Harding, Luke. 2010. "Ukraine extends lease for Russia’s Black Sea fleet." the Guardian 21:2010. Higgins, Andrew, and Steven Erlanger. 2014. "Gunmen Seize Government Buildings in Crimea." The New York Times on the Web. Hill, Christopher, Asle Toje, Flemming Splidsboel Hansen, Hans Mouritzen, and Anders Wivel. 2014. "Explaining Foreign Policy: International Diplomacy and the Russo-Georgian War by Hans Mouritzen and Anders Wivel." International Politics Reviews 2 (1):31-47. doi: 10.1057/ipr.2014.8. Interfax. 2014. "Regions of Crimea meeting didn`t address separation of Crimea from Ukraine - deputy prime minister of Crimea." Interfax Ukraine, accessed 22 April 2017. http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/191667.html. Interfax-Ukraine. 2014. "Number of Crimean deputies present at referendum resolution vote unclear." Interfax, accessed 5 May 2017.http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/193292.html. Jervis, Robert. 1988. "War and misperception." The Journal of Interdisciplinary History 18 (4):675-700. Johnson, Boris. 1991. "History ‘Turns Inside Out’as Russia Asks to Join NATO." Daily Telegraph 21. Johnston, Alastair Iain. 1995. "Thinking about strategic culture." International security 19 (4):32-64. Johnston, Alastair Iain. 1998. Cultural realism: Strategic culture and grand strategy in Chinese history: Princeton University Press. Jordan, Pamela. 2004. "Russia: A State of Uncertainty, by Neil Robinson." Canadian Journal of History 39 (1):153-155. Karagiannis, Emmanuel. 2013. "The 2008 Russian–Georgian war via the lens of Offensive Realism." European Security 22 (1):74-93. doi: 10.1080/09662839.2012.698265. Klaiber. 1998. "The NATO-Russia relationship a year after Paris " NATO Review. Accessed 14.3.2017. http://www.nato.int/docu/review/1998/9803-05.htm. Knight, Amy. 2000. "The enduring legacy of the KGB in Russian politics." Problems of Post-Communism 47 (4):3-15. Korsunskaya, Darya. 2014. "Putin says Russia must prevent ‘color revolution’." Reuters. November 20. Kropatcheva, Elena. 2012. "Russian foreign policy in the realm of European security through the lens of neoclassical realism." Journal of Eurasian Studies 3 (1):30-40. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.euras.2011.10.004. Kupchan, Charles. The vulnerability of empire. Cornell University Press, 1994. Legro, Jeffrey W. 2013. Cooperation Under Fire: Anglo-German Restraint During World War II: Cornell University Press. Leichtova, Magda. 2014. Misunderstanding Russia: Russian Foreign Policy and the West: Ashgate Publishing, Ltd. Lo, Bobo. 2002. Russian foreign policy in the post-Soviet era: reality, illusion and mythmaking: Springer. Lo, B. Axis of Convenience: Moscow, Beijing and the New Geopolitics. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2008. Lobell, Steven E., Norrin M. Ripsman, and Jeffrey W. Taliaferro. 2009. "Neoclassical realism, the state, and foreign policy." Lowen, Mark. 2014. Ukraine crisis: Crimea leader appeals to Putin for help. Accessed 12 April 2017. Loza, Tihomir, Ky Krauthamer, Andrew Gardner, and Jeremy Druker. 2006. "Russia: Black-Belt Ambitions, Orange-Belt Throw." Transitions Online (01/10). Lingard, C. Cecil, Hans Morgenthau, Frederick L. Shuman, Feliks Gross, Louise W. Holborn, and Norman J. Padelford. "Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace." (1948): 83-85. Maitra, S. 2014. "Realism in Russian Foreign Policy: The Crimean Case." CLAWS Journal Summer 2014:168-122. Makarychev, Maksim. 2008. "MINUTES BEFORE MIDNIGHT - Georgian PResident Issues Order to Start Aggression a Couple of Hours After Talking About a Truce." Rossiiskaya gazeta, 9 August 2008. Accessed 27 April 2017. Mankoff, Jeffrey. 2007. "Russia and the West: taking the longer view." Washington Quarterly 30 (2):123-135. Mankoff, Jeffrey. 2009. Russian foreign policy: the return of great power politics. Vol. 295: Rowman & Littlefield Lanham, MD. Mankoff, J. Russian Foreign Policy: The Return of Great Power Politics. 2nd ed. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2011. Marsh, C., and N. Gvosdev. Russian Foreign Policy: Interests, Vectors, and Sectors. London: CQ Press, 2013. Marples, David R. 2014. Russia in the Twentieth Century: The Quest for Stability: Routledge. Marten, Kimberly. 2014. Dancing with a Wounded Bear: Russia and the West. Ottawa Centre for International Policy Studies University Ottawa. McFaul, Michael, Stephen Sestanovich, and John J Mearsheimer. 2014. "Faulty powers: who started the Ukraine Crisis." Foreign Aff. 93:167. Mearsheimer, J. J. 2014. "Why the Ukraine Crisis Is the West`s Fault The Liberal Delusions That Provoked Putin." Foreign Affairs 93 (5):127-+. Mearsheimer, John J. 1990a. "Back to the future: Instability in Europe after the Cold War." International security 15 (1):5-56. Mearsheimer, John J. 1990b. "Why we will soon miss the Cold War." The Atlantic Monthly 266 (2):35-50. Mearsheimer, John J. 2001. The tragedy of great power politics: WW Norton & Company. Mearsheimer, John J. 2007. Structural realism. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Medvedev, Dmitry. 2009. "Go Russia!" Kremlin. ru 10. Mineyev, Aleksandr. 2008. "ALBANIAN SIRENS - Kosovo Parliament Adopts Declaration of Independence " Vremya novostei, Feb. 18 . Accessed 23.4.2017. Mitchell, Lincoln A. 2006. "Democracy in Georgia since the rose revolution." Orbis 50 (4):669-676. Morghentau, Hans. 1948. "Politics among nations: The struggle for power and peace." New York 51973. Motyl, Alexander J. 2015. "The surrealism of realism: misreading the war in Ukraine." World Affairs 177 (5):75. Mouritzen, H., and A. Wivel. Explaining Foreign Policy: International Diplomacy and the Russo- Georgian War. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2012. NATO. 1997. "Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security between NATO and the Russian Federation signed in Paris, France." accessed 11.3.2017. http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_25468.htm. NATO. 2008. Bucharest Summit Declaration. Novosti, R. I. A. 2008a. Russia`s president says operation in Georgia over. Novosti, R. I. A. "Georgians Back NATO Membership in Referendum. Retrieved 20 January, 2009." (2008). Pavlova, EB, TA Romanova, АА Варфоломеев, and АН Сазонова. 2012. "Neo-Classical Realism in European Politics: Bringing Power Back In." Государство и право (9):79-85. Perlez, Jane. "Yeltsin`Understands` Polish Bid for a Role in NATO." The New York Times 26 (1993). Pipes, Richard. 2004. "Flight from Freedom-What Russians Think and Want." Foreign Aff. 83:9. Preobrazhensky, Ivan. 2008. "Reatreat Enforcement - `Peace Enforcement` in South Ossetia Becomes Russian Advance Deep Into Georgian Territory " Vedomosti 12 August 2008. Accessed 30 March 2017. Putin, Vladimir. 1999. "Russia at the Turn of the Millennium." speech, December. Putin, Vladimir. 2005. Annual Address to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. Moscow. Putin, Vladimir. 2014. "Direct Line with Vladimir Putin." President of Russia. Putin, Vladimir. 2017. "Vladimir Putin Personal website ". Russian Presidential Executive Office , accessed 23 March. http://eng.putin.kremlin.ru/bio. Putin, Vladimir Vladimirovich, Nataliya Gevorkyan, Natalʹi͡a Timakova, Andreĭ Vladimirovich Kolesnikov, and Catherine A Fitzpatrick. 2000. First person: an astonishingly frank self-portrait by Russia`s president: PublicAffairs. Ripsman, Norrin M., Jeffrey W. Taliaferro, and Steven E. Lobell. Neoclassical Realist Theory of International Politics. Oxford University Press, 2016. Romanova, TA, and EB Pavlova. 2009. "Towards neoclassical realist thinking in Russia." Вестник международных организаций (4):134-167. Romanova, Tatiana. 2012. Neocalssical Realism and Today`s Russia. 2016 (27. April). Rose, Gideon. "Neoclassical realism and theories of foreign policy." World politics 51, no. 01 (1998): 144-172. Roxburgh, Angus. 2013. The strongman: Vladimir Putin and the struggle for Russia: IB Tauris. RT. 2008. NATO expansion a ‘direct threat to Russia’ - Putin. RT. 2014. Putin acknowledges Russian military serviceman were in Crimea. Sakwa, Richard. 2014. Frontline Ukraine: Crisis in the borderlands: IB Tauris. Sandford, D. 2011. "Russian election: Biggest protests since fall of USSR." BBC News, December 10. Saradzhyan, Simon. 2014. "How Russia`s red line in Ukraine got real." Belfer Center. Satter, David. The Less You Know, the Better You Sleep: Russia`s Road to Terror and Dictatorship Under Yeltsin and Putin. Yale University Press, 2016. Smith, Martin. Russia and NATO since 1991: from Cold War through cold peace to partnership?. Routledge, 2006. Sciolino, Elaine. 1994. "Yeltsin Says NATO is trying to Split continent Again." New York Times 6:A10. Shevtsova, Lilia. 2010. Post-Soviet Kremlinology ponders the famous “reset.”. 6 (22 April 2017). Accessed 24 April 2017. Smith, Gordon B. 1999a. State-building in Russia: The Yeltsin legacy and the challenge of the future: ME Sharpe. Smith, Mark A. 1999b. Russian thinking on European security after Kosovo: Conflict Studies Research Centre, Royal Military Academy, Sandhurst. Smith, Martin. 2006. Russia and NATO since 1991: from Cold War through cold peace to partnership?: Routledge. Snyder, Glenn H. 1996. "Process variables in neorealist theory." Security Studies 5 (3):167-192. Snyder, Jack L. 1977. "The Soviet Strategic Culture: Implications for Limited Nuclear Operations." Speech at the Munich Conference on Security Policy. Munich, February 10, 2007. Kremlin.ru. Spirtas, Michael. 1996. "A house divided: Tragedy and evil in realist theory." Security Studies 5 (3):385-423. Sterling–Folker, Jennifer. 1997. "Realist Environment, Liberal Process, and Domestic–Level Variables." International Studies Quarterly 41 (1):1-26. Stewart, Will. 2014. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2576003/Russian-troops-storm-Ukrainian-missile-defence-site-dramatic-escalation-Crimea-crisis-U-S-sends-warship-Black-Sea.html. Tagliavini, Heidi. 2009. "Report of the Independent International Fact Finding Mission on the Conflict in Georgia." Council of the European Union. Taliaferro, Jeffrey W. 2006. "State building for future wars: Neoclassical realism and the resource-extractive state." Security Studies 15 (3):464-495. Thorun, Christian. 2009. Explaining change in Russian foreign policy: the role of ideas in post-Soviet Russia`s conduct towards the West: Palgrave Macmillan. Treisman, Daniel. 2016. "Why Putin Took Crimea." Foreign Affairs 95 (3):8. Tsygankov, Andrei P. 2016. Russia`s foreign policy: change and continuity in national identity: Rowman & Littlefield. Van Herpen, Marcel H. 2015. Putin`s wars: the rise of Russia`s new imperialism: Rowman & Littlefield. Walker, Shaun. 2013. "Vladimir Putin offers Ukraine financial incentives to stick with Russia." The Guardian 18. Walt, Stephen M. 1990. The origins of alliance: Cornell University Press. Walt, Stephen M. 2000. "Alliances: balancing and bandwagoning." International Politics: Enduring Concepts and Contemporary Issues:96-103. Waltz, Kenneth. 1979a. "Theory of international Politics ." Reading: Addison-Wesley. Waltz, Kenneth. 1979b. "Theory of international relations." Reading, Mass.: Addison-Webley:111-114. Waltz, Kenneth N. 1996. "International politics is not foreign policy." Security Studies 6 (1):54-57. doi: 10.1080/09636419608429298. War, The Correlates of. 2012. National Material Capabilities. Wegren, Stephen K, and Dale R Herspring. 2009. After Putin`s Russia: past imperfect, future uncertain: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers. Whitman, Richard, and Stefan Wolff. 2010. The European Neighbourhood Policy in perspective: context, implementation and impact: Springer. Wieclawski, Jacek. 2011. "Contemporary Realism and the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation." International Journal of Business and Social Science 2 (1). Witz, Richard. 2014. "The Collective Security Treaty Organization: Past Struggles and Future Prospects." Russian Analytical Digest (No. 152). Wohlforth, William Curti. 1993. The elusive balance: power and perceptions during the Cold War: Cornell University Press. Yoon, Sangwon, Daryan Krasnolutska, and Katerina Choursina. 2014. "Russia Stays In Ukraine As Putin Channels Yanukovych Request." Bloomberg News 3 (4):14. Zakaria, Fareed. 1999. From wealth to power: The unusual origins of America`s world role: Princeton University Press.
Description:	碩士國立政治大學國際研究英語碩士學位學程 (IMPIS) 104862008
Source URI:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0104862008
Data Type:	thesis
Appears in Collections:	[International Master`s Program in International Studies] Theses

Files in This Item:

File	Description	Size	Format
200801.pdf		812Kb	Adobe PDF2	102	View/Open

社群 sharing

Loading...