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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/103634


    Title: 國際收支.沖銷措施與經濟穩定
    Authors: 李世榮
    Contributors: 曹添旺
    李世榮
    Date: 1985
    Issue Date: 2016-11-09 17:06:37 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 論文提要
    本文在研究採行固定匯率制的國家,沖銷措施之變化如何在資產選擇行為之制衡下,改變各外生因素對國內目標變數的干擾幅度。基本上仍延用 Argy and Kouri 的架構精神,在一般凱因斯學派開放經濟模型中,另加入一條定義資產市場均衡的方程式;並進一步分析在不同沖銷程度下,各外生因素對內生因素的干擾究竟如何。
    我們發現大多外生干擾對國內經濟安定(或不安定)的作用,均隨沖銷程度的漸次提高而單純的漸形增減。但就國外利率對國內經濟的干擾而言卻不然,理論上我們就能發現一不屬完全沖銷或完全不沖銷的最適沖銷程度,以抑制國外利率對國內利率的干擾。
    另外,由於在決定沖銷措施的經濟穩定效果時,國內目標變數的穩定與國際收支的穩定間存有一確切的關聯,運用此關聯,可推出一簡潔的實證分析方式,以便判斷:現行經濟結構下,能否靠沖銷程度的提高以促進經濟穩定。實證研究結果,我們得到如下結論:台灣之經濟體系,除了國外物價對國內物價的干擾外,並無充份證據顯示沖銷措施可以促進國內物價的安定;但沖銷措施的採行卻明白意味著國際收支變動的更加不安定。
    第一章 緒論1
    第二章 國際收支與經濟穩定5
    壹、一般數學模型之推證5
    貳、流程分析9
    第三章 沖銷措施的經濟穩定效果15
    壹、基本模型15
    貳、比較靜態分析19
    參、沖銷措施與經濟安定自動調整機能22
    肆、結論24
    第四章 沖銷措施作為安定政策工具之可行性39
    壹、沖銷係數之估計40
    貳、物價與國際收支變動之估計44
    參、沖銷措施的經濟穩定效果預測47
    第五章 結論55
    參考文獻57
    Reference: 中文部份:
    〔1〕、陸民仁(編):「台灣經濟發展總論」,台灣經濟發展論文集,聯經公司出版,六十四年
    〔2〕、蕭文宗:「管理浮動匯率準均衡之總體經濟政策效果」,中國經濟學會年會論文集(七十一年),七十一年九月
    〔3〕、蕭文宗:「管理浮動匯率之總體經濟安定性與資本的移動性」,台北市銀月刊,15卷1期,七十三年元月
    〔4〕、賴景昌:「固定匯率與部份沖銷措施」,經濟論文,10卷2期,七十一年九月
    〔5〕、賴景昌、張文雅:「管理浮動匯率、部份沖銷措施與總體經濟政策」,台北市銀月刊,14卷5期,七十二年五月
    〔6〕、張文雅:「固定匯率與總體經濟政策有效性--不同沖銷程度的比較」,台北市銀月刊,14卷9期,七十二年九月
    〔7〕、許嘉棟:「銀行利率、財金政策與國外物價對台灣的所得、物價與民間利率之影響」,經濟論文,10卷1期,七十一年三月
    〔8〕、許嘉棟:「我國金融體制之檢討」,當前經濟問題研討會論文集,中國經濟學會,七十二年
    〔9〕、李國鼎:「台灣經濟快速成長的經驗」,正中書局,六十六年
    英文部份:
    (10 ). Argy, V. and Kouri, P. J. K. (1974) “Sterilization Policies and the Volatility in International Reserves”, in R. Z. Aliber ed. “National Monetary Policies and the International Financial System ”. The University of Chicago Press, Chicago and London. pp. 209-230.
    (11). Branson, W. H. and Hill, R.D., Jr. (1971) “Capital Movements Among Major OECD Countries: Some Preliminary Results”, The Journal of Finance. pp. 269-286.
    (12). Chen, C.C. (1979) “Money and Prices in an Increasingly Open Economy: The Case of Taiwan”, Journal of Macroeconomics. pp. 285-93.
    (13). Fleming, J. M. (1961) “Domestic Financial Policies Under Fixed and Floating Exchange Rates”, International Monetary Fund Staff Papers. pp. 369-379.
    (14). Herring, R. Z. and Marston, R.C, (1977) “ Sterlization Policy: the Trade-off Between Monetary Autonomy and Control over Foreign Exchange Reserves”, European Economic Review. pp. 325-343.
    (15). Hodjera, Z. (1973) “International Short-term Capital Movements: A Survey of Theory and Empirical Analysis”,, International Monetary Fund Staff Papers. pp. 683-740.
    (16). Johnson, H. G. (1966) “Some Aspects of the Theory of Economic Policy in a World of Capital Mobility”, in A.M. Gabiotti ed., Essays in Honor of Macro Fanno, Padova.
    (17). Kouri, P. J. K. and Porter. M. G. (1974) “International Capital Flows and Portfolio Equilibrium”, Journal of Political Economy. pp. 443-467.
    (18). Lai, C.C. (1983) “A Note on Fixed Exchange Rates, Partial Sterilization Operations, and Macroeconomic Policies”, Indian Journal of Economics. pp. 387-390.
    (19). Mundell, R.A. (1968), International Economics, Macmillan Company, New York.
    (20). Porter, M. G. (1972) “Capital Flows as an Offset to Monetary Policy: The German Experience”, International Monetary Fund Staff Papers. pp. 395-424.
    (21). Swoboda, A. K (1972) “Quasi-equilibrium and Macroeconomic Policy under Fixed Exchange Rates”, Quarterly Journal of Economics. pp. 161-171.
    (22). Takayama, A. (1969) “The Effects of Fiscal and Monetary Policies under Flexible and Fixed Exchange Rates”, Canadian Journal of Economics. pp. 190-209.
    (23). Tobin, J. (1969) “A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. pp. 15-29.
    (24). Turnovsky, S. J. (1977), Macroeconomic Analysis and Sterilization Policies, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, London.
    Relation: 國立政治大學
    經濟研究所
    碩士
    73
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[經濟學系] 學位論文

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