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| Title: | 台灣不動產市場季節效應之探討
Seasonal Effects on the Taiwanese Real Estate Market |
| Authors: | 林庭萱
Lin, Ting Hsuan |
| Contributors: | 陳明吉
Chen, Ming Chi
林庭萱
Lin, Ting Hsuan |
| Keywords: | 月份效應
節日效應
春節效應
鬼月效應
不動產市場
Monthly effect
Holiday effect
Chinese New Year effect
Ghost Month effect
Real estate market |
| Date: | 2016 |
| Issue Date: | 2016-09-01 23:44:33 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 過去許多文獻實證顯示股票市場存在季節性效應，然而鮮少直接以不動產為標的進行季節性效應之分析，直觀上春節期間人們因忙於返鄉、祭祀等民俗活動無暇看屋，鬼月期間受制於傳統習俗而有購屋忌諱，種種因素不利房屋買氣；反觀春秋之際，坊間常聽到建商打出329檔期、928檔期來刺激房屋買氣，故推論季節性效應可能同樣存在於不動產市場。
本研究探討此議題，使用1973~2015年台北地區的房市資料進行價與量之實證分析，除了以X-12-ARIMA方法萃取季節性因子觀察其變化以外，亦使用複迴歸模型進行月份效應之檢定，實證結果顯示不動產價格並未存在明顯的季節性效應，然而在不動產成交量的部份春節與鬼月期間顯著低於其他月份，另外由三月份的成交量高點可解釋329檔期確實刺激房市買氣，但928檔期則並未明顯拉抬成交量，由此可見不動產市場的季節效應主要反映在成交量而非價格，尤以民俗節氣帶來的影響最為明顯。
Numerous studies have indicated that seasonal effects exist in stock markets, but few have focused on real estate markets. Timing is a crucial factor affecting when people decide to buy houses. For example, during the Chinese New Year vacation, people typically return to their hometowns to perform prayer sacrifices and visit with friends and family, limiting their opportunities to view houses. People also avoid buying houses in the seventh lunar month, also known as the Ghost Month in Chinese culture, for fear of back luck. Unlike these aforementioned slack seasons, the March 29 and September 28 promotions are considered to be the high seasons in the Taiwanese real estate market. Therefore, we assumed that seasonal effects also exist in the Taiwanese real estate market.
This study investigated the historical data of house prices and trade volumes during 1973–2015 in the Taipei area. The empirical results achieved by using the X-12-ARIMA method and multiple regression model indicate that house prices in Taipei have no clear seasonality. However, variations in trade volumes are negatively affected by Chinese New Year and the Ghost Month, whereas trade volumes are positively affected by 329 promotions. In short, the seasonality of the Taiwanese real estate market is revealed through its trade volume rather than its price variations and is primarily influenced by the timing of traditional festivals. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
財務管理研究所
103357036 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0103357036 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [財務管理學系] 學位論文
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