政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/100529

政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/100529

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题名:	隨收隨付制年金與勞動內生化：疊代經濟的分析 Pay-as-you-go Pension and Endogenous Labor Supply in an Overlapping Generations Economy
作者:	黃宇諒 Huang, Yu liang
贡献者:	賴景昌 Lai, Ching Chong 黃宇諒 Huang, Yu liang
关键词:	隨收隨付年金疊代模型勞動外生化勞動內生化不確定性 Pay-as-you-go pension overlapping-generations model exogenous labor supply endogenous labor supply indeterminacy
日期:	2016
上传时间:	2016-08-22 13:15:46 (UTC+8)
摘要:	本文擬修改Heijdra (2009)的模型假設，並參考Ihori (1996)與金志婷 (2011)的處理方式，建立一個以線性所得稅融通之隨收隨付年金的疊代模型。在考慮勞動外生化以及勞動內生化兩種情況下，分別探討所得稅率變動以及人口成長率變動將會如何影響經濟體系的總體均衡，並得到以下結果：一、勞動外生化模型中，政府提高隨收隨付年金的所得稅率將會影響民眾的儲蓄行為而不利於每人資本的累積。二、不同於Heijdra (2009)勞動供給量為常數的結果，本文的勞動內生模型將涉及勞動的差分方程式。同時，在總體均衡下此經濟體系會存在多重均衡，而發生均衡的不確定性，當政府提高所得稅率，將會造成長期均衡的勞動量和資本勞動比都同時降低。三、不論勞動外生或是勞動內生模型，人口成長率降低皆有助於每人資本及資本勞動比的增加。 Based on the Ihori (1996) analysis, this thesis makes a revision from Heijdra (2009), and develops a simple two-period overlapping-generations model with a Pay-as-you-go pension and linear income taxation. This thesis then analyzes the dynamic properties of the model and how the change in the income tax rate and the population growth rate affect the household’s optimizing behavior and the economy’s capital accumulation. The analysis includes both the exogenous labor supply case and the endogenous labor supply case. Several main findings emerge from the analysis. First, in the presence of exogenous labor supply, a rise in the income tax rate leads to a negative impact on private savings and decreases physical capital per capita. Second, in the presence of endogenous labor supply, running in contrast to Heijdra (2009), labor supply would not be a constant but relates to its amount in the next period. As a result, coupled with the difference equation in capital-labor ratio, the simultaneous difference equations in both labor supply and capital-labor ratio are present in the overlapping-generations model. By imposing some plausible conditions, it is found that the overlapping generations economy exhibits local indeterminacy and a rise in the income tax rate would reduce both the capital-labor ratio and labor supply in the long run. Third, a reduction in the population growth rate would stimulate both physical capital per capita and the capital-labor ratio, regardless of whether labor supply is exogenous or endogenous.
參考文獻:	行政院主計處國情統計通報資料 (2015)，「103年國人平均壽命79.8歲，104年11月老化指數達91.6」，URL: http://www.dgbas.gov.tw/public/Data /5123016245198HDYFK.pdf。行政院勞動部勞工保險局全球資訊網 (2016)，「國民年金簡介」，URL: http://www.bli.gov.tw/sub.aspx?a=DUbMXxAoFv4%3d。金志婷 (2011)，「隨收隨付與完全提存的國民退休年金：不同財政政策指標之比較」，《經濟論文叢刊》，第39卷，第2期，頁213-241。賴景昌 (2011)，《總體經濟學》，第十九章。台北：雙葉。 Altig, D. and Gokhale, J., (1997), Social security privatization: A simple proposal, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Working Paper 9703, 36. Azariadis, C., (1993), Intertemporal Macroeconomics, Ch. 5 Oxford: Blackwell. Belan, P., Michel, P. and Pestieau, P., (1998), Pareto-improving social security reform, The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory 23, 119-125. Belan, P. and Pestieau, P., (1999), Privatizing social security: A critical assessment, The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Issues and Practice 24, 114-130. Blanchard, O. J., (1985), Debt, deficits and finite horizons, Journal of Political Economy 93, 223-247. Breyer, F. and Straub, M., (1993), Welfare effects of unfunded pension systems when labor supply is endogenous, Journal of Public Economics 50, 77-91. Buiter, W. H., (1988), Death, productivity growth and debt neutrality, Economic Journal 98, 279-293. Diamond, P. A., (1965), National debt in a neoclassical growth model, American Economic Review 55, 1126-1150. Feldstein, M. S. and Samwick, A. A., (1998), The transition path in privatizing social security, in M. S. Feldstein (ed.), Privatizing Social Security, Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Gandolfo, G., (1980), Economic Dynamics: Methods and Models, Ch. 2 and Ch. 8. Amsteradam: North-Holland. Heijdra, B. J., (2009), Foundations of Modern Macroeconomics, Ch. 17. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Ihori, T., (1996), Public Finance in an Overlapping Generations Economy, Ch. 3 and Ch. 10. London: Macmillan Press. Jha, S. K., Wang, P. and Yip, C. K., (2002), Dynamics in a transactions-based monetary growth model, Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control 26, 611-635. Kotlikoff, L. J., (1996), Privatizing social security: How it works and why it matters, in J. M. Poterba (ed.), Tax Policy and the Economy, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Pollard, P. S. and Pecchenino, R. A., (1997), The transition from a pay-as-you-go to a fully-funded social security system: Is there a role for social insurance, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Papers 97, 22. Samuelson, P. A., (1958), An exact consumption-loan model of interest with or without the social contrivance of money, Journal of Political Economy 66, 467-482. Sheshinski, E. and Weiss, Y., (1981), Uncertainty and optimal social security system, Quarterly Journal of Economics 96, 189-206. Valde´z-Prieto, S., (1997), Financing a pension reform towards private funded pensions, in S. Valde´z-Prieto (ed.), The Economics of Pensions. Principles, Policies and International Experiences. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Weil, P., (1989), Overlapping families of infinitely-lived agents, Journal of Public Economics 38, 183-198. Yaari, M. E., (1965), Uncertain lifetime, life insurance, and the theory of the consumer, Review of Economic Studies 32, 137-150.
描述:	碩士國立政治大學經濟學系 103258029
資料來源:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0103258029
数据类型:	thesis
显示于类别:	[經濟學系] 學位論文

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