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| Title: | 財務報表舞弊偵測模型之建立-以中國上市公司為例
Building Fraudulent Financial Statement Detecting Model: Evidence from China Listed Companies |
| Authors: | 甄典蕙
Chen, Tien Hui |
| Contributors: | 林宛瑩
Lin, Wan Ying
甄典蕙
Chen, Tien Hui |
| Keywords: | 財務報表舞弊
Logistic迴歸
裁決性收入
Z";-Score
Fraudulent financial reporting
Logistic regression
Discretionary revenue
Z";-Score |
| Date: | 2015 |
| Issue Date: | 2016-08-22 10:42:11 (UTC+8) |
| Abstract: | 由於財務報表舞弊往往足以震撼投資大眾，造成資本市場重大損失，各國監管單位無不盡力降低此事件之爆發，以維護資本市場秩序、保障投資人，是以本研究欲瞭解影響中國大陸上市公司舞弊之因素為何，以及如何建立舞弊預測模型提供財務報表使用者作為參考之用。本文利用2007年至2014年受懲罰之上市公司為研究對象，採Logistic迴歸進行實證分析，結果顯示裁決性收入與Z"-Score對於財務報表舞弊無顯著相關，相反的獨立董事比例、是否具ST壓力、存貨週轉率、應收帳款週轉率、主營業務利潤率與財務報表舞弊具顯著關係，另外利用迴歸結果中顯著變數建立財務報表舞弊模型，發現整體正確率為53.31％。
Due to the severe impacts caused by fraudulent financial reporting, securities regulatory commissions in most countries put much emphasis on maintaining the order of the capital markets and protecting the investors’ interests. In order to realize the factors of financial statement fraud, especially for China listed companies, and build the detecting model for the financial statements users, I select some listed companies punished by the government during the period 2007-2014 as the samples in this dissertation. Then, I use logistic regression model to test which variables are significant to fraudulent financial reporting, and the results show that the discretionary revenue and Z"-Score do not have impact on it. On the contrary, the percentage of independent directors, pressure from avoiding being “ST”, inventory turnover, accounts receivable turnover, and percentage of income from main operation are significantly relevant to fraudulent financial reporting. Moreover, when including these significant variables in the detecting model, the accuracy of the model can up to 53.31 percent. |
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| Description: | 碩士
國立政治大學
會計學系
102353105 |
| Source URI: | http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G1023531051 |
| Data Type: | thesis |
| Appears in Collections: | [會計學系] 學位論文
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