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    題名: 退稅政策變動對於外籍旅客消費行為影響
    作者: 賴琦捷
    貢獻者: 周德宇
    賴琦捷
    關鍵詞: 觀光需求函數
    追蹤資料迴歸分析
    外籍旅客購物退稅
    現場小額退稅
    Tourism demand
    panel data estimation
    Taiwan Tax Refund
    On-Site Small Amount Tax Refund
    日期: 2016
    上傳時間: 2016-07-20 16:59:28 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 觀光產業為現在世界主要產業之一，稱之為「無煙囪產業」，因其汙染少且外部成本相較許多工業產業來的低，許多國家都致力於發展觀光業，投入許多政策吸引觀光客到訪。我國政府近年來也推動許多政策是針對外籍旅客觀光計畫。如民國92年的「觀光客倍增計畫」預期於2008年達成目標，於是在同年於「觀光發展條例」中增訂的「外籍旅客購物退稅」，外籍旅客購物退稅的實施更是發展觀光產業的重要措施之一，觀光產業在觀光較為發達的已開發國家中，都十分重視旅客購物退稅這項措施，臺灣政府於民國92年實施政策至今，經歷了幾次重大改制，本文致力於研究於民國100年7月實施的「現場小額退稅」措施，是否對來臺外籍旅客的消費行為有顯著影響，並對今年實施的新制退稅措施是否再次影響旅客消費意願作出預期。
    本研究以外籍旅客國籍及其消費金額之追蹤資料進行迴歸分析，蒐集位於臺北市區的某特定營業人2009年8月至2015年12月的外籍旅客退稅資料，針對來自七個國家及地區的外籍遊客消費行為建立來臺觀光需求模型。以政府實施的「現場小額退稅」措施當作主要的政策變數，並選取幾個影響旅客需求的重要變數為控制變數，建立以旅客總消費量、平均消費量、特定營業人之營業額為因變數的三個模型，觀察政策變數及其他控制變數對於外籍旅客消費行為的影響。
    以全體樣本實證結果發現，本政策變動對於旅客總消費量、商店之營業額均有顯著正向影響，對於旅客平均消費量也是正面的影響；本文也將七個國家及地區分別討論，以美國、日本及中國旅客對於政策效果的影響最為顯著且正向，其他國家雖不顯著但多為正向關係。顯見政策的推動確實有助於提升外籍旅客來臺及消費意願，對發展臺灣觀光旅遊產業是一項助益。
    According to UNWTO, tourism industry has experienced continuous growth and become one of the fastest growing economic sectors in the world. Many countries have committed themselves to developing tourism industry nowadays due to lower externality. Taiwanese government also has some implemented plans on tourism industry of which foreigners are allowed to apply for “VAT Refund”, hoping that the increase in international tourist may give the economy a boost.
    Our study has conducted an empirical analysis on the policy of On-Site Small Amount Tax Refund, which is mainly concentrated in panel data estimation. The purpose of this thesis is to find out the effect of this policy. First, we use Dummy variable as a main variable to capture the influence of the policy. Second, we introduce both the demand factors and the supply factors to explain tourism spending in Taiwan.
    The span of the data is from August 2009 to December 2015, using Tax Refund data of foreigners from 7 countries and districts. Our empirical analysis show that the Tax Refund policy has had significantly positive effect on both dependent variables, including total consumption and store revenue, especially these from U.S.A., Japan and China. These three countries show the strongest response to the dependent variables. It also shows that implementation of this Tax Refund policy really contributes to our tourism industry by increasing international tourism receipts of Taiwan.
    參考文獻: 一、 中文部分：
    王淑美與溫蓓章 (2010) 。開放陸客來臺旅遊經濟效益分析。遠景基金會季刊，11(3)，133–175。
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    徐翊芳 (2013)。中國大陸人民來臺觀光需求之研究。未出版碩士論文。國立臺灣大學經濟學研究所，臺北市。
    唐偉明 (2013)。我國實行境外旅客購物離境退稅制度的研究。未出版碩士論文。復旦大學碩士學位論文科學學位，上海。
    陳光華、容繼業、陳怡如 (2004)。大陸地區來臺觀光團體旅客旅遊消費行為與重遊意願之研究。觀光研究學報，10(2)，95-110。
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    二、 英文部分
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    Cunha, L. (2001). “Introdução ao Turismo,Verbo.” Lisboa, pp. 447.
    Dimanche, F. (2003). “The Louisiana Tax Free Shopping Program for International Visitors: A Case Study.” Journal of Travel Research February, 41(3), pp. 311-314.
    Fehr, H., Rosenberg, C., & Wiegard, W. (1995). Welfare Effects of Value-Added Tax Harmonization in Europe: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis. Berlin: Springer.
    González, P., & Moral, P. (1995). “An Analysis of the International Tourism Demand in Spain.” International Journal of Forecasting, 11, pp. 233-251.
    Gounopoulos, D., Petmezas, D., & Santamaria, D. (2012). “Forecasting Tourist Arrivals in Greece and the Impact of Macroeconomic Shocks from the Countries of Tourists’ Origin.” Annals of Tourism Research, 39 (2). pp. 641-666.
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    Hsiao, C. (1986). Analysis of Panel Data. New York: Cambridge University Press.
    Kim, S.H. (1988), “The demand for international travel and tourism to South Korea: an econometric evaluation of major economic factors.” PhD thesis, University of Santo Tomas, Manila.
    Kosnan, S.S.A., & Kaliappan, S.R. (2013). “Determinants of International Tourism in Malaysia: Evidence from Gravity Model.” Journal Economic Malaysia, 47(1), pp. 131-138.
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    Mak, J., Moncur, J., & Yonamine, D. (1997). “Determinants of Visitor Expenditures and Visitor Lengths of Stay: A Cross-Section Analysis of U.S. Visitors to Hawaii,” Journal of Travel Research, 15(3), pp. 5-8.
    Mikulicz, H. (1983). “Determinants of tourism flows in Europe.” Helsinki (Finland): Seminar on the importance of research in the tourism industry, pp. 7-16.
    Nicolau, J.L., & Más, F.J. (2005). “Heckit modelling of tourist expenditure: Evidence from Spain.” International Journal of Service Industry Management, 16(3), pp. 271-293.
    Proenca, S. A., & Soukiazis, E. (2005). “Demand for Tourism in Portugal: A Panel Data Approach.” Coimbra Discussion Paper, No.29.
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    Soest, V. & Kooreman, P. (1987). “A micro-econometric analysis of vacation behaviour.” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2(3), PP. 215-226.
    Song, H. (2010). “Tourism demand modelling and forecasting: how should demand be measured?” Tourism Economics, 16 (1), pp. 63–81.
    Shoup, C.S. (1955). “The Dividend Exclusion and Credit in the Revenue Code of 1954.” National Tax Journal, 8(1), pp. 136-147.
    Stucka, T. (2002). “A Comparison of Two Econometric Models (OLS and SUR) for Forecasting Croatian Tourism Arrivals” Working Papers, Croatian National Bank.
    Taylor, D.T., Fletcher, R.R., & Clabaugh, T. (1993) “A Comparison of Characteristics, Regional Expenditures, and Economic Impact of Visitors to Historical Sites with Other Recreational Visitors.” Journal of Travel Research, 32(1), pp. 30-35.
    Thrane, C. (2002). “Jazz festival visitors and their expenditures: Linking spending patterns to musical interest.” Journal of Travel Research, 40(3), pp. 281-286.
    Tsaur, S.H., Lin, Y.C., & Lin, J.H. (2006). “Evaluating ecotourism sustainability from the integrated perspective of resource, community and tourism.” Tourism Management, 27(4), pp. 640-653.
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    Wang, Y., & Davidson, M.C.G. (2010). “A Review of Micro Analyses of Tourist Expenditure,” Current Issues in Tourism, 13(6), pp. 507-524.
    Wong, J., & Law, R. (2003). “Difference in shopping satisfaction levels: a study of tourists in Hong Kong.” Tourism Management, 24(4), pp. 401-410.
    Zhang, P. (2009). “Examining Long-Haul Chinese Outbound Tourists’ Shopping Intentions.” University of South Carolina, International Hospitality and Tourism Management College of Hospitality, Retail, and Sport Management, Columbia.
    三、 網站資料
    交通部觀光局http://admin.taiwan.net.tw/public/public.aspx?no=315
    UNWTO http://www2.unwto.org/
    IMF http://www.imf.org/external/index.htm
    World Bank http://www.worldbank.org/
    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    財政學系
    103255020
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0103255020
    資料類型: thesis
    顯示於類別:[財政學系] 學位論文

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