政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/98683

政大典藏 > College of International Affairs > International Master`s Program in International Studies > Theses > Item 140.119/98683

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/98683

Title:	巴基斯坦和葉門的無人機：在美國反恐戰爭中是有效或是破壞穩定的戰術？ Unmanned Aerial Vehicles in Pakistan and Yemen: Effective or Destabilizing Tactic in the U.S. War on Terrorism?
Authors:	善學 Shattuck, Thomas
Contributors:	張文揚 Chang, Wen Yang 善學 Shattuck,Thomas
Keywords:	無人戰機無人機反恐巴基斯坦葉門 unmanned aerial vehicles drones counterterrorism Pakistan Yemen
Date:	2016
Issue Date:	2016-07-01 16:08:31 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	美國只好在巴基斯坦和葉門使用無人機,做為打擊基地組織及其分支機構的武器。這本研究評估四個美國的反恐目標，是否在這些國家使用無人機攻擊基地組織。這四個目標是（1）破壞，降解，搗毀和擊敗基地組織及其附屬機構; （2）消除安全避難所; （3）建立持久反恐的夥伴關係，和能力; （4）對抗基地組織的意識形態和共振，減少暴力，基地組織攻擊的特定的驅動程序。無人機攻擊葉門和巴基斯坦,當他們不實現任何的這些目標時,以及在某些情況下,反對他們的工作時。無人機攻擊無法有效在定位和消除正確的目標，增加反美情緒和復仇的慾望，在與基地組織戰鬥中葉門和巴基斯的政府表現出無能，並為基地組織有迴盪消息，宣傳利用。美國必須改革使用無人駕駛飛機，才能真正消滅基地組織構成的嚴重威脅，衛護其國家安全和海外利益。 The American use of unmanned aerial vehicles in Pakistan and Yemen has become the sole mechanism to combat al Qaeda and its affiliates. This study evaluates four U.S. counterterrorism goals to determine whether or not drone strikes in these countries can defeat al Qaeda. The four goals are (1) disrupt, degrade, dismantle, and defeat al Qaeda and its affiliates; (2) eliminate safe havens; (3) build enduring counterterrorism partnerships and capabilities; and (4) counter al Qaeda ideology and its resonance and diminish the specific drivers of violence that al Qaeda exploits. Drones strikes in Yemen and Pakistan do not achieve any of these goals, and in some cases, work against them. They are not effective at eliminating the proper targets, increase anti-American sentiments and the desire for revenge, demonstrate Yemen’s and Pakistan’s incompetence at fighting al Qaeda, and provide al Qaeda with a reverberating message to exploit with propaganda. The U.S. must reform its use of drones in order to truly eliminate al Qaeda as a serious threat to its national security and interests abroad.
Reference:	2007. “Taliban all over,” The Economist, (April 12), http://www.economist.com/node/9008911. 2010. “Air strike kills Yemen mediator,” Reuters-Thompson, (May 26), http://www.reuters.com/article/us-yemen-idUSLDE64O0DF20100526. 2013. “Online Data Analysis,” Arab Barometer, http://www.arabbarometer.org/content/online- data-analysis. 2013. “Drop the pilot,” The Economist, (October 9), http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21588142-surprising-number-pakistanis-are-favour-drone-strikes-drop-pilot. 2013. “U.S. Policy Standards and Procedures for the Use of Force in Counterterrorism Operations Outside the United States and Areas of Active Hostilities,” The United States Government, (May 23), https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/uploads/2013.05.23_fact_sheet_on_ppg.pdf. 2015. “World Bank Suspends Operations in Yemen,” The World Bank, (March 11), http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2015/03/11/world-bank-suspends-operations-in-yemen. 2016. “Lahore attack: Pakistan PM Sharif demands swift action on terror,” BBC, (March 28), http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-35910124. Ackerman, Spencer. 2014. “41 men targeted but 1,147 people killed: US drone strikes – the facts on the ground,” The Guardian, (November 24), http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2014/nov/24/-sp-us-drone-strikes-kill-1147. Ahmad, Mahmood. 2014. “The United States Use of Drones in Pakistan: A Politico-Strategic Analysis,” Asian Affairs: An American Review, vol. 41, no. 1: 21-29. Al-Dawsari, Nadwa. 2012. “Tribal Governance and Stability in Yemen,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, (April), http://carnegieendowment.org/2012/04/24/tribal-governance-and-stability-in-yemen. Alexander, David. 2013. “Retired general cautions against overuse of ‘hated’ drones,” Reuters- Thompson, (January 7), http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-afghanistan-mcchrystal-idUSBRE90608O20130107. Al-Muslimi, Farea. 2013. “In Senate Testimony, Yemeni Activist Describes Human Costs of Targeted Killing Program,” American Civil Liberties Union, (April 24), https://www.aclu.org/blog/senate-testimony-yemeni-activist-describes-human-costs-targeted-killing-program. Amnesty International. 2012. “United States of America: ‘Targeting Killing’ Policies Violate the Right to Life,” London: Amnesty International Publications: 1-17. Amnesty International. 2013. “Will I Be Next? US Drone Strikes in Pakistan,” London: Amnesty International Publications: 5-74. Aslam, M.W. 2011. “A Critical Evaluation of American Predator Strikes in Pakistan: Legality, Legitimacy, and Prudence,” Critical Studies on Terrorism, vol. 4, no. 3 (December): 1-19. Benson, Pam. 2012. “Bin Laden documents: fear of drones,” CNN.com, (May 3), http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2012/05/03/bin-laden-documents-fear-of-drones/. Bergen, Peter. 2011. The Longest War: The Enduring Conflict between America and al-Qaeda. New York: Free Press. Bergen, Peter and Katherine Tiedemann. 2010. “The Year of the Drone: An Analysis of U.S. Drone Strikes in Pakistan, 2004-2010,” New America Foundation (February 24): 1-9. Bergen, Peter and Katherine Tiedemann. 2011. “Washington’s Phantom War: The Effects of the U.S. Drone Program in Pakistan,” Foreign Affairs (July/August), https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/pakistan/2011-07-01/washingtons-phantom-war. Bergen, Peter, and Jennifer Rowland. 2012. “Obama ramps up covert war in Yemen,” CNN.com, (June 12), http://www.cnn.com/2012/06/11/opinion/bergen-yemen-drone-war/. Bergen, Peter and Jennifer Rowland. 2014. “Al Qaeda controls more territory than ever in Middle East,” CNN.com, (January 8), http://edition.cnn.com/2014/01/07/opinion/bergen-al-qaeda-terrority-gains/. Blank, Laurie R. 2012. “After ‘Top Gun’: How Drone Strikes Impact the Law of War,” University of Pennsylvania Journal of International Law, vol. 33, no. 3: 675-715. Boyle, Michael J. 2013. “The Costs and Consequences of Drone Warfare,” International Affairs, vol. 89 no. 1: 1-29. Brave New Films. 2015. Unmanned: America’s Drone Wars. Bryant, Brandon, et al. 2015. “Letter to President Barak Obama,” https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/2515596/final-drone-letter.pdf. The Bureau of Investigative Journalism. 2015a. “CIA drone strikes in Pakistan, 2004 to present,” https://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/category/projects/drones/drones-graphs/. The Bureau of Investigative Journalism. 2015b. “US strikes in Yemen, 2002 to present,” https://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/category/projects/drones/drones-graphs/. Byman, Daniel L. 2013. “Why Drones Work: The Case for Washington’s Weapon of Choice,” Brookings (July/August), http://www.brookings.edu/research/articles/2013/06/17-drones- obama-weapon-choice-us-counterterrorism-byman. Central Intelligence Agency. 2009. “Director’s Remarks at the Pacific Council on International Policy,” (May 18), https://www.cia.gov/news-information/speeches-testimony/directors-remarks-at-pacific-council.html. CFR.org Staff. 2015. “Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP),” Council on Foreign Relations, (June 19), http://www.cfr.org/yemen/al-qaeda-arabian-peninsula-aqap/p9369. Cordesman, Anthony H. 2006. “Winning the ‘War on Terrorism:’ The Need for a Fundamentally Different Strategy,” Center for Strategic and International Studies (September 18): 1-9. Council on Foreign Relations. 2013. “Reforming U.S. Drone Strike Policies,” Council Special Report No. 65, (January): 3-40. Cronin, Audrey Kurth. 2006. “How al-Qaida Ends: The Decline and Demise of Terrorist Groups,” International Security, vol. 31, no. 1 (Summer): 7-48. Cronin, Audrey Kurth. 2009. How Terrorism Ends: Understanding the Decline and Demise of Terrorist Campaigns. Princeton and Oxford: Princeton University Press. Cronin, Audrey Kurth. 2012. “U.S. Grand Strategy and Counterterrorism,” Orbis (Spring): 1-23. Cronin, Audrey Kurth. 2013. “Why Drones Fail: When Tactics Drive Strategy,” Foreign Affairs, (July/August), https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/somalia/2013-06-11/why-drones- fail. Cronin, Audrey Kurth. 2014. “The Foreign Policy Essay: Is this How to Win the ‘War on Terrorism?’” Lawfare, (September 14), https://www.lawfareblog.com/foreign-policy-essay-how-win-war-terrorism. Enemark, Christian. 2011. “Drones over Pakistan: Secrecy, Ethics, and Counterinsurgency,” Asian Security, vol. 7, no. 3 (October): 218-237. Entous, Adam, Julian E. Barnes, and Margaret Coker. 2011. “U.S. Doubts Intelligence That Led to Yemen Strike,” The Wall Street Journal, (December 29), http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052970203899504577126883574284126. Gaouette, Nicole. 2016. “Obama: ‘No doubt’ U.S. drones have killed civilians,” CNN.com, (April 2). http://edition.cnn.com/2016/04/01/politics/obama-isis-drone-strikes-iran/. General Atomics Aeronautical. 2015. Predator B, http://www.ga- asi.com/products/aircraft/predator_b.php. The Global Security. 2016. “Pashtunwali/Pashtuanwaali,” http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/pakistan/pashtunwali.htm. Harris, Paul. 2012. “Drone attacks create terrorist safe havens, warns former CIA official,” The Guardian, (June 5), http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/jun/05/al-qaida-drone-attacks-too-broad. Hudson, Leila, Colin S. Owens, and Matt Flannes. 2011. “Drone Warfare: Blowback from the New American Way of War,” Middle East Policy, vol. 18, no. 3 (Fall): 122-132. Hudson, Leila, Colin S. Owens, and David J. Callen. 2012. “Drone Warfare in Yemen: Fostering Emirates through Counterterrorism?,” Middle East Policy Council, vol. 19, no. 3 (Fall). Human Rights Clinic, Columbia Law School. 2012. “Counting Drone Strike Deaths.” New York: 3-34. Human Rights Institute, Columbia Law School. 2011. “Targeting Operations with Drone Technology: Humanitarian Law Implications.” American Society of International Law Annual Meeting, (March 25): 2-37. Human Rights Watch. 2013. “Between a Drone and al-Qaeda: The Civilian Cost of US Targeted Killings in Yemen,” Human Rights Watch, 1-97. Hussain, Murtaza. 2015. “Former Drone Operations Say They Were ‘Horrified’ by Cruelty of Assassination Program,” The Intercept, (November 20), https://theintercept.com/2015/11/19/former-drone-operators-say-they-were-horrified-by-cruelty-of-assassination-program/. Johnsen, Gregory D. 2013. “How We Lost Yemen,” Foreign Policy, (August 6), http://foreignpolicy.com/2013/08/06/how-we-lost-yemen/. Jordan, Jenna. 2014. “Attacking the Leader, Missing the Mark: Why Terrorist Groups Survive Decapitation Strikes,” International Security, vol.38, no. 4 (Spring): 7-38. Kilcullen, David, and Andrew McDonald Exum. 2009. “Death From Above, Outrage Down Below,” The New York Times, (May 16), http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/17/opinion/17exum.html?utm_source=affiliate&utm_medium=ls&utm_campaign=PPkX79/c*b0&utm_content=357585&utm_term=177&siteID=PPkX79_c.b0-YctiYQ7UFIErZ6b1vI.vCg&_r=0. Koehler-Derrick, Gabriel. 2011. “A False Foundation? AQAP, Tribes and Ungoverned Spaces in Yemen,” Combatting Terrorism Center at West Point, (September). Laub, Zachary. 2015. “Yemen in Crisis,” Council on Foreign Relations, (July 8), http://www.cfr.org/yemen/yemen-crisis/p36488/. Long, Austin. 2010. “Assessing the Success of Leadership Targeting,” CTC Sentinel, vol. 3, no. 11-12 (November): 1-28. Marshall, Monty G., and Benjamin R. Cole. 2014. “Table 1: State Fragility Index and Matrix 2014,” Center for Systemic Peace, http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscr/SFImatrix2014c.pdf. Mothana, Ibrahim. 2012. “How Drones Help Al Qaeda,” The New York Times, (June 13), http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/14/opinion/how-drones-help-al-qaeda.html. Miller, Greg, and Craig Whitlock. 2015. “Yemen crisis disrupts U.S. counterterrorism operations, officials say,” The Washington Post, (January 23), https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-counterterrorism-operations-with-yemen-suspended-officials-say/2015/01/23/03bf8826-a337-11e4-903f-9f2faf7cd9fe_story.html. Munnich, Stuart. 2014. “Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) Part 1,” NATO Association of Canada, (March 4), http://natoassociation.ca/al-qaeda-in-the-arabian-peninsula-aqap-part-1/. National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism. 2013. “Global Terrorism Database,” http://www.start.umd.edu/gtd. New America Foundation. 2015a. “Drone Wars Pakistan: Analysis,” http://securitydata.newamerica.net/drones/pakistan-analysis.html. New America Foundation. 2015b. “Drone Wars Yemen: Analysis,” http://securitydata.newamerica.net/drones/yemen-analysis.html. Obama, Barack. 2011. “National Strategy for Counterterrorism.” (June), https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/counterterrorism_strategy.pdf. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. 2015. “Yemen: highest emergency response level declared for six months,” UN OCHA, (July 1), http://www.unocha.org/top-stories/all-stories/yemen-highest-emergency-response-level-declared-six-months. Orr, Andrew C. 2011. “Unmanned, Unprecedented, and Unresolved: The State of American Drones Strikes in Pakistan under International Law,” Cornell International Law Journal, vol. 44: 729-752. Orwell, George. 1946. “Politics and the English Language,” https://www.mtholyoke.edu/acad/intrel/orwell46.htm. Pape, Robert A. 1996. Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War. Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press. Pape, Robert A. 2004. “The True Worth of Air Power,” Foreign Affairs, (March/April), https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2004-03-01/true-worth-air-power. Pew Research Center. 2012. “Pakistani Public Opinion Ever More Critical of U.S.,” (June 27), http://www.pewglobal.org/2012/06/27/pakistani-public-opinion-ever-more-critical-of-u-s/. Pew Research Center. 2014. “A Less Gloomy Mood in Pakistan,” (August 27), http://www.pewglobal.org/2014/08/27/a-less-gloomy-mood-in-pakistan/. Price, Bryan C. 2012. “Targeting Top Terrorists: How Leadership Decapitation Contributes to Counterterrorism,” International Security, vol. 36, no. 4 (Spring): 9-46. Raghavan, Sudarsan. 2010. “Investigators scrutinize Yemeni American cleric’s ties to plane suspect,” The Washington Post, (January 1), http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/12/31/AR2009123101524.html. Raghavan, Sudarsan. 2012. “In Yemen, U.S. airstrikes breed anger, and sympathy for al-Qaeda,” The Washington Post, (May 29), https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/in-yemen-us-airstrikes-breed-anger-and-sympathy-for-al-qaeda/2012/05/29/gJQAUmKI0U_story.html. Sharkey, Noel. 2009. “Death Strikes from the Sky: The Calculus of Proportionality,” IEEE Technology and Society Magazine, (Spring): 16-19. Sharp, Jeremy M. 2015. “Yemen: Background and U.S. Relations,” Congressional Research Service, (February 11): 1-33. Shaw, Ian G.R. 2013. “Predator Empire: The Geopolitics of US Drone Warfare,” Geopolitics: 1- 24. Shaw, Ian and Majed Akhter. 2014. “The Dronification of State Violence,” Critical Asian Studies, vol. 46, no. 2 (April): 211-234. Smith, Megan and James Igoe Walsh. 2013. “Do Drone Strikes Degrade Al Qaeda? Evidence from Propaganda Output,” Terrorism and Political Violence, vol. 25: 311-327. Solis, Gary D. 2010. The Law of Armed Conflict: International Humanitarian Law in War. London: Cambridge University Press. Swift, Christopher. 2012a. “To Defeat Al-Qaeda, Win in Yemen,” Bloomberg, (June 21), http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2012-06-21/to-defeat-al-qaeda-win-in-yemen. Swift, Christopher. 2012b. “Arc of Convergence: AQAP, Ansar al-Shari’a and the Struggle for Yemen,” Combatting Terrorism Center at West Point, (June 21). Swift, Christopher. 2012c. “The Drone Blowback Fallacy,” Foreign Affairs (July 1), https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2012-07-01/drone-blowback-fallacy. Swift, Christopher. 2012d. “The Crisis in Yemen: al-Qaeda, Saleh, and Governmental Instability,” Foreign Policy Research Institute, (July), http://www.fpri.org/article/2012/07/the-crisis-in-yemen-al-qaeda-saleh-and-governmental-instability/. Walsh, Nick Paton. 2016. “Al Qaeda ‘very active’ in Afghanistan: U.S. Commander,” CNN.com, (April 13), http://edition.cnn.com/2016/04/13/middleeast/afghanistan-al-qaeda/. Williams, Brian Glyn. 2010. “The CIA’s Covert Predator Drone War in Pakistan, 2004-2010: The History of an Assassination Campaign,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, vol. 33, no. 10 (September): 871-892. Worth, Robert F., Mark Mazzetti, and Scott Shane. 2013. “Drone Strikes’ Risks to Get Rare Moment in the Public Eye,” The New York Times, (February 5), http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/06/world/middleeast/with-brennan-pick-a-light-on-drone-strikes-hazards.html.
Description:	碩士國立政治大學國際研究英語碩士學位學程 (IMPIS) 103862003
Source URI:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0103862003
Data Type:	thesis
Appears in Collections:	[International Master`s Program in International Studies] Theses

Files in This Item:

File	Size	Format
200301.pdf	1206Kb	Adobe PDF2	596	View/Open

社群 sharing

Loading...