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    政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 統計學系 > 學位論文 >  Item 140.119/96301
    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/96301


    Title: 專家系統與統計模擬之整合架構與實例應用
    Authors: 洪瑞泰
    Contributors: 余千智
    洪瑞泰
    Keywords: 模擬
    人工智慧
    專家系統
    決策支援系統
    專家模擬系統
    程序庫管理系統
    程式管理系統
    知識庫系統
    模擬環境
    觀念架構
    作業流程
    應用工具
    系統創制
    等候理論
    Date: 1989
    Issue Date: 2016-05-10 18:56:16 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 摘要
    模擬常用於研究不可直接探求的真實世界,與不確定問題的分析。惟傳統模擬多不具有處理知識,邏輯推理與管理龐大資料的能力;模式建構的人機介面未能有效溝通,模擬執行結果也少提供解釋。就方法論而言,人工智慧/專家系統與模擬有諸多相似之處,兩者可互補長短。
    本論文係以決策支援系統/專家系統的觀點來探討模擬,並提出專家模擬系統的整合架構,本系統為智慧型的特定模擬決策支援系統,亦即在決策支援的架構下,整合專家系統的知識庫及推論機,配合決策支援系統的系統能力,以滿足使用者制定模擬決策所須推論、分析及執行的功能。本系統對於傳統模擬軟體的諸多未盡完善事誼,也加以探討與改進。
    本文是以模擬與專家系統的整合為主題,其研究脈絡為模擬環境的探討→相關文獻回顧→觀念架構→作業流程→應用工具→系統建制→實例驗證。
    本文首先定義模擬及其相關名詞。回顧模擬環境,檢討傳統模擬之諸多限制,引入各種新方法以為改進之道。亦提出專家系統與模擬之整合觀念架構,討論組成元件-使用者介面、程式庫、資料庫、程序庫管理系統、推論機與知識系統與執行單元所應具備的諸多功能;並敘述架構的運作狀況。
    本研究選定適當的應用工具,具體建立系統的原型,證明觀念架構所提出者俱為可行,並舉等候理論為例說明原型系統的實際操演過程。
    另外,本文對以往模擬環境內各種新興的改革方法與理論,詳予分類暨回顧分析。
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    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    統計學系
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G91NCCV0892012
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[統計學系] 學位論文

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