政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/95931

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政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 會計學系 > 學位論文 > Item 140.119/95931

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/95931

Title:	財務預測修正與外資買賣超行為關係之研究 The Trading Activities of Foreign Investor versus Revision of Mandatory Forecast
Authors:	莊惠君
Contributors:	康榮寶莊惠君
Date:	1998
Issue Date:	2016-05-10 15:56:18 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	本研究之目的在探討外資法人在我國股市的買賣超行為與強制性財務預測修正行為之間的關係。一般將外國專業投資機構定義為『知情者』的角色，而形成投資決策的資訊來源很多，其中會計資訊為基本分析重要來源之一，本研究首先欲探討外資法人是否落實其專業知識，充分運用國內強制公開之財務預測資訊，亦即是外資法人否因為強制性財務預測修正資訊的公開，適時地改變其買賣超行為。同時，管理當局會選擇財務預測修正公告的時點，以達其『隱惡揚善』的目的，則外資法人的買賣超時點是否不受其影響亦是本研究之研究主題之一。本研究並進一步探討外資法人在壞消息時，是否存在鉅額買超的相反的策略性行為。　　本研究之樣本涵蓋期間為民國83年3月至86年8月，財務預測修正公告日前後15個交易日之外資法人每日持股變動情形為研究對象，採用常態性檢定及Wilcoxon signed-rank檢定等統計方法，經實證分析，本研究所獲的結論可彙述如下：　　一、外資法人之買賣超行為　　1.當原始預測原因為現金增資時，外資法人面對公司公佈好消息的強制性財務預測修正，並未有顯著之買超行動，且修正次數的不同，也並未造成外資法人出現不同投資策略。　　2.當原始預測因為現金增資時，外資法人面對公司公佈壞消息的強制性財務預測修正，並不會適時賣超，且公告次數的差異，並未造成外資買賣超行為顯著的不同。　　3.當原始預測原因為初次上市時，公司公告好消息之財務預測修正，並未引起外資法人之顯著買超，因此，無法推論外資法人面對此好消息時，會有顯著的反應，也無法推論當原始預測原因不同時，外資法人會有不同之反應。　　4.當原始預測原因為初次上市時，公司公告壞消息之財務預測修正，並未引起外資法人之顯著的賣超動作，因此，無法推論外資法人面對此壞消息時，會有顯著的反應，也無法推論當原始預測原因不同時，外資法人會有不同之反應。　　二、外資法人之買賣超時間特性　　1.當外資法人面對公告好消息之財務預測修正時，其主要之買超行為確實發生在修正公告日之後，因此，可推論當財務預測修正為好消息時，因為公司不會延後公告日期，外資法人之買超行為主要發生在修正公告日後。　　2.當外資法人面對公告壞消息之財務測修正時，其主要之賣超行為確實發生在修正公告日之前，符合本研究之假說，因此可推論當財務預測修正為壞消息時，因為公司會延後公告時間，外資法人之賣超行動主要發生在修正公告日之前。　　三、外資法人之策略性行為　　當公司發佈壞消息之財務預測修正時，外資法人會故意『鉅額』買超，亦即在事件窗期內，其單日買超張數達當日成交張數之40%以上，表示外資法人在台灣股市會挾其在資金、經驗上的優勢，進行短期炒作。　　This study aims to investigate the response of foreign investor to the revision of mandatory earnings forecast. If the foreign investor is defined as the professional investor in accordance with economics of information, he would properly response to the announcement of revising mandatory earnings forecast. Since the management has discretion of selecting the timeliness of mandatory forecast revision, he (she) would apply his (her) discretion to maximize his (her) wealth. Finally, since the public trading activities of foreign investor are useful, the foreign investor would strategically trade in order to maximize his (her) utility. This study mainly examines the above three issues. This study selects samples from the period between March, 1994 and August, 1997. The testing period covers 15 trading days prior to and subsequent to the revision, total 31 trading days. The empirical findings of this study can be summarized as follows. 　　In sum, if the preparation of mandatory forecast relates to seasoned offerings, no matter whether it is a positive revision or negative revision, the foreign investor will not response it prior to or subsequent to the announcement. These results also hold if the preparation of forecast relates to IPO (Initial Public Offering). 　　For the timeliness hypothesis, the foreign investor will positively response to the positive revision of mandatory forecast subsequent to the revision. In addition, the foreign investor will response to the negative revision of forecast prior to the revision. Thus, the timeliness is a factor affecting the trading activities among foreign investors.
Description:	碩士國立政治大學會計學系 85353030
Source URI:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#A2010000647
Data Type:	thesis
Appears in Collections:	[會計學系] 學位論文

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