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    Title: 人口結構、住宅價格與強迫儲蓄─台灣儲蓄現象之實證分析
    Authors: 賴逸芳
    Contributors: 林祖嘉
    賴逸芳
    Date: 2002
    Issue Date: 2016-05-09 16:52:15 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 　　本文擬由總體時間序列分析來看住宅資產價值及人口老化問題能否適切地詮釋台灣儲蓄率的變化，並引用強迫儲蓄的概念，在考慮住宅資產的儲蓄、投資意義後，傳統定義的儲蓄率低估了人們實際的儲蓄行為，因此，本文擬估計台灣有貸款家庭每期攤還房屋貸款本金支出的數額，並將其加回儲蓄，重新探討住宅資產對儲蓄的影響。再者，由於東方家庭留遺產的強烈動機，使得人口結構轉變不僅透過生命週期模型影響總儲蓄，並且可能改變繼承龐大遺產的下一代的儲蓄行為，加強了人口老化問題對總儲蓄的負面效果，因此本文亦將代表人口結構轉變的老人人口比率置於模型中討論。
    　　本論文的實證結果發現，若加回償還購屋貸款本金部分的強迫儲蓄，儲蓄率在近幾年已有回升的跡象，傳統定義下的儲蓄率在房價飆漲後嚴重地低估了人們實際的儲蓄行為。另外，本文利用共整合分析法發現，人口老化對總儲蓄確有負面衝擊，且若我們忽略了房價上漲所帶來的強迫儲蓄效果，將會過度高估了住宅資本利得對儲蓄的影響。再者，以誤差修正模型來描繪儲蓄的短期動態調整，若忽略房價所造成的強迫儲蓄效果，將使得總體儲蓄的短期調整速度較慢，達到長期均衡所需的時間較長，而強迫儲蓄模型ECM在預測能力的表現上亦較傳統儲蓄模型ECM佳。最後，我們以因果關係檢定確立了住宅資產價格對總儲蓄存在因果關係，因此，我們可以由房價的趨勢預測未來儲蓄的動態變化。
    　　所以，本文認為住宅資產大幅增值所產生的強迫儲蓄效果和資本利得效果以及人口老化的趨勢，可以為台灣國民儲蓄率下降的現象提出合理的解釋。
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    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    經濟學系
    89258022
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#A2010000183
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[Department of Economics] Theses

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