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    Title: 債務、金融部門發展與經濟成長
    Debt, financial sector development and economic growth
    Authors: 鍾建屏
    Chung, Chien Ping
    Contributors: 黃仁德
    Hwang, Jen Te
    鍾建屏
    Chung, Chien Ping
    Keywords: 債務
    金融部門發展
    經濟成長
    Debt
    Financial Sector Development
    Economic Growth
    Date: 2009
    Issue Date: 2016-05-09 15:42:07 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 對一開放經濟體系而言，當面臨國際經濟波動的衝擊時，經濟成長率會受到國際經濟波動的衝擊幅度以及其外債負擔額度所影響。本論文第二章建立一個開放經濟的貨幣內生成長模型，在爬行釘住匯率制度下，生產技術以實物資本作為生產要素投入，加上貨幣進入交易成本的設定，從最適均衡的角度來探討當一國經濟體系遭受國際經濟波動的衝擊時，如何透過風險貼水管道來影響經濟成長的表現，以及探討國際金融危機傳遞的過程，同時並探究外債減輕政策的成效。我們發現在最適均衡成長下，當一國面臨國際經濟波動的衝擊時，不但會使長期外債−資本比率下降與實質貨幣−資本比率上升外，同時也伴隨者對國內實質資本需求的減少，進而降低經濟成長率。國際經濟波動所帶來的不利影響會因外債的減輕而獲得紓緩，而有助於經濟成長。
    第三章利用亞洲及拉丁美洲20個國家的追蹤資料，檢定過度債務假說的存在以及外債對金融部門發展與經濟成長的影響。實證結果顯示，外債對GDP比率對一國經濟成長具有顯著的負面影響效果，過度債務假說成立；過度債務會透過抑制金融部門的發展，進而妨礙一國的經濟成長。此外，本章的實證結果也顯示一國金融部門的發展與經濟成長，彼此間存在顯著的雙向交互影響關係。
    在第四章中，我們同樣利用亞洲及拉丁美洲國家的追蹤資料，藉以衡量外債、國外直接投資、及經濟成長之間的交叉影響效果。實證結果顯示，在這些國家中，國外直接投資對經濟成長具有正面的貢獻，但是過度債務會不利於這些國家的經濟成長。最後，我們也發現一國金融部門發展的健全程度在這之間扮演了重要的角色，即金融市場愈健全的國家，其國外直接投資所帶來對經濟成長的貢獻程度也就愈大。
    For a small open economy, sovereign debt and default have important effects on both economic fluctuations and growth. The instability caused by high levels of external debt may adversely affect economic growth. Consequently, the purpose of chapter 2 is to set out a framework for developing countries embedding nominal money balances to facilitate transactions cost model. Output is produced using a stock of broad-concept productive capital, the international financial externality, and investment expenditures involving adjustment costs. We provide a theoretical formalization that is the base for and explanation of the contagion of financial crises, and find that debt relief is expected to stimulate growth by releasing resources from debt service to investments in infrastructure and reduce the risk of spread. Such investments, in turn, enhance domestic investment, besides attracting private foreign investment. Moreover, we have also found that debt relief will raise the real output capital ratio, the market value of capital, and the real balance-capital ratio, and promote economic growth in the long run.
    In chapter 3, we use panel data of 20 high external debt countries selected from Asia and Latin-America to investigate the financial sector development-debt-growth nexus within the framework of an endogenous growth and financial development mechanism. First, we found that among 20 high external debt countries, the external debt-to-GDP ratio is significantly negatively correlated with economic growth rates, indicating that excessive debt is detrimental to the growth of an economy. Second, we introduced the simultaneous GMM equations between financial sector development and economic growth to evaluate the interaction effects among economic growth, external debt, and financial sector development. In empirical results, we find that the negative impact of high debt on growth appears to operate through a strong negative effect, in terms of compulsion to resort to financially repressive policies. In addition, we also find a two-way relationship between financial sector development and economic growth.
    Further, this dissertation also aims to investigate how the link between FDI and economic growth in developing countries. Chapter 4 explores the interplay between foreign direct investment (FDI), external debt and economic growth using panel data analysis for a sample of Asian and Latin American countries. First we use several different panel data models to investigate the determinants of economic growth. Our results suggest that FDI contribute positively to long-term economic growth in these countries, and the percentage of external debt to GDP is negatively correlated with the economic growth rate, indicate that debt overhang impeded growth in Asia and Latin America.
    Secondly, we introduced the simultaneous GMM equation between FDI and economic growth to examine the various linkages among the relevant determinants of FDI, external debt and economic growth. In empirical results, we find financial development plays an important role in influencing the effects of FDI on output, countries with well-developed financial markets gain significantly from FDI in terms of their growth rates. Furthermore, the negative impact of the short-term debt to external debt ratio, on growth appears to operate through a negative effect on FDI inflows. In addition, we also find evidence that the hypotheses of growth-driven FDI and FDI-led growth are developed on the basis of recent studies on economic effects of FDI in both regions.
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