政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/94879

政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/94879

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政大機構典藏 > 社會科學學院 > 國家發展研究所 > 學位論文 > Item 140.119/94879

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题名:	情報決策象限理論之建構與個案分析－孫子兵法情報概念的反思 The Construction and Case Study of the Quadrangular Theory for Intelligence-Decision：Reflection on the Intelligence Thought of Sun Tzu.
作者:	紀光陽 Chi, Kuang Yang
贡献者:	李英明宋筱元 Lee,Ying Ming Song,Sheau Yuan 紀光陽 Chi,Kuang Yang
关键词:	孫子兵法情報信息認知決策象限理論決策方程式美伊戰爭 The Art of War by Sun-tzu intelligence information cognition decision-making Quadrant theory Equation of decision Second Gulf War
日期:	2009
上传时间:	2016-05-09 12:35:34 (UTC+8)
摘要:	「情報」與「決策」存在著高度的密切關係，「情報」正確而及時則相對提高「決策」的正確性；反之，則降低「決策」的正確性。但同一個「情報」對不同的個人而言，會產出不同的「決策」結果，此即是「決策」不僅與「情報」有關，亦與個人的「認知」條件有著密切的關係。　　因此，本文透過孫子兵法「情報」與「決策」的關係，架構出孫子的決策邏輯與位階性，再以此建構出情報決策「象限理論」，企圖系統性地解釋「情報」條件與決策者「認知」條件的複雜關係，並藉由第二次美伊戰爭的決策過程作為例證，說明導致決策錯誤的重要因素。並由「象限理論」中第一象限區域，及美伊戰爭決策缺失中，檢討並演繹出「國家安全決策新思維」，文中指出一個專業且中立的情報機關，除了要提升情報信息的客觀性外，更要避免、改變決策者先入為主的錯誤認知。經由本文所提出的「象限理論」、「決策方程式」、「個案分析」、「國家安全決策新思維」，將有助於瞭解並加速決策產出的質量與效能，進而有利於優質決策的產出。 There is highly relationship between intelligence and decision-making. The correct and on time intelligence will make a good policy; but the wrong or slow intelligence will make a bad policy, on the contrary. The same intelligence for different individuals will result in different decision-making, which means decision-making has high relationship with intelligence and personal cognition. For this reason, this article constructs The Quadrangular Theory of Intelligence and Decision-making based on The Art of Sun-tzu theory, to explain the complicated relation between intelligence and personal cognition, as well as to state the important factor which leads to the wrong decision-making in the Second Gulf War. This article also point out an important concept: the professional and intelligence agencies will not only improve the objectively intelligence, but also will avoid policymaker`s prejudiced cognition. The Quadrangular Theory of Intelligence and Decision-making will help to understand the whole situation and accelerate the high quality and high efficiency decision-making process.
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