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    题名: 風險與租稅對政府補貼, 消費者休閒與產業投資影響之研究
    The Effect of Risk and Taxation on Government Subsidy, Consumer`s Leisure and Industry Investment
    作者: 潘聖潔
    Pan, Sheng-Chieh
    贡献者: 高俊雄
    Kao, Chin-Hsung
    潘聖潔
    Pan, Sheng-Chieh
    关键词: 財源轉移
    結構轉變
    避險
    報酬(或公司價值)不確定
    跨期選擇模型
    Fiscal Transfer
    Structural Break
    Hedging
    Return (or Corporate value) Uncertainty
    Intertemporal Choice Model
    日期: 2008
    上传时间: 2016-05-09 11:45:37 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本研究共包含三篇論文，首先修正von Hagen and Hepp(2000)所建立模型分析政府的財源轉移之風險分散與重分配動態效果。整體而言，補助與協助收入或統籌分配款所產生的所得與稅收風險分散或重分配效果相當有限，且各分區(北、中、南與全區)的結論差異甚大，顯示財源轉移發揮的效率不足。統籌分配款對於改善稅收的風險分散與重分配上，效果優於補助與協助收入。各縣市取得的補助與協助收入或統籌分配款高於長期所得與稅收風險分散與重分配所應對應的額度，造成資源浪費。就全區而言，前幾期稅收(所得)風險分散變化，可作為短期調整補助與協助收入(統籌分配款)的依據；統籌分配款與稅收的風險分散、補助與協助收入或統籌分配款與稅收重分配均存在雙向因果關係。
    其次，在分析勞動者的休閒時間選擇時，本文修正跨期選擇模型，考慮勞動者持有投資組合與採取避險措施，並面對租稅問題下，以導出休閒時間方程式。實證上採用混合估計法針對12種樣本產業及兩種不同休閒時間衡量方式進行估計，結果顯示不同休閒時間衡量方式，影響估計結果甚鉅；金融市場的變化與波動攸關休閒時間變動：國內外利率、匯率與遠期匯率等與投資組合報酬相關的變數，在多數情況下顯著地影響休閒時間變動，且各變數對於休閒時間的影響程度，在工業中的次級產業大於服務業中的次產業。此外，採行周休二日制度確實改變制度採行前後的休閒時間，惟在三個工業次產業上則不明顯。
    最後，修正Bo and Sterken (2002) 所建立的最適動態模型，分析公司價值不確定與租稅措施對海運廠商投資的影響，經由最大化公司價值導出影響台灣海運公司投資的三種不確定來源與避險措施，並進行實證估計。實證結果顯示，不確定的衡量方式攸關投資函數的估計結果，以指數加權移動平均標準差衡量不確定時，其估計結果優於以GARCH(1,1)衡量不確定，隱含廠商較在乎可預期波動對投資的影響。一般而言，廠商利率與原油價格的波動增加，均不利於公司投資，其中以原油價格不確定對於投資的影響最大，其效果約略與廠商利率相當。其次，影響海運公司投資最重要的三項因素均分別為BDI、負債與廠商利率，顯示價格與債務規模的重要性更甚於利率。此外，三種公司價值不確定來源對投資的影響，在多數個別公司之間並無顯著的差異，有助於採行總體財金政策以刺激投資。
    This dissertation contains three articles. First I revise the models set up by von Hagen and Hepp (2000) to analyze the dynamic effects of the Aid and Assistance and central government’s Tax Redistribution Fund on income (or tax) risk sharing and redistribution. For all the counties in Taiwan area the effects are tiny, but those are diverse among the counties in each Taiwan sub-area. The Aid and Assistance and central government’s Tax Redistribution Fund actually obtained by each county are larger than the amounts required to maintain long-term risk sharing and redistribution effects. These all imply that fiscal transfer is inefficiency. The effects of the central government’s Tax Redistribution Fund on risk sharing and redistribution are larger than those of Aid and Assistance. The central government can adjust the Aid and Assistance based on the change of earlier-period ax (income) risk sharing effect. Moreover, the existence of significant short-run interaction between the central government’s Tax Redistribution Fund and tax risk sharing, the Aid and Assistance and tax redistribution.
    Secondly, I revise intertemporal choice model by considering portfolio selection, hedging and taxation problems to derive economic agent’s leisure time equation. In empirical study, we focus on twelve sample industries and two different leisure time measurements, then adopt pooled estimation to estimate leisure time equation. Empirical results show that different measurement of leisure time influences estimation outcomes tremendously. Furthermore, the financial variables affecting portfolio return, including domestic and foreign interest rates, exchange rate and forward rate almost have remarkable effect on leisure time. Finally, the effect of each explanatory variable on leisure time is larger in industry than in service industry.
    Finally, I revise the optimal intertemporal model, constructed by Bo and Sterken (2002), by maximizing corporate value to derive three uncertainty sources and hedging influencing shipping-firm investment. Empirical evidences show that it is relevant for the estimation results to adopt which methods to measure the uncertainty. The outcomes derived from taking the Exponential Weighted Moving Average model to measure uncertainty are better than those from adopting the GARCH(1,1) model. Generally, as the volatilities in firm’s interest rate and crude oil price increase, firm investment decreases and the effect of crude oil price uncertainty on investment, the largest among the four effects, is nearly equal to that of firm interest rate on investment. Furthermore, BDI, debt and firm interest rate are the most important variables influencing firm investment. Finally, the effects of three uncertainty sources on investment are almost indifferent among the ten shipping-firms.
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    描述: 博士
    國立政治大學
    財政學系
    92255505
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0922555051
    数据类型: thesis
    显示于类别:[財務管理學系] 學位論文

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