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    Title: 臺北市人口與地價空間分佈變遷之研究. (1976-1984)
    Authors: 蕭展正
    Contributors: 劉錚錚
    蕭展正
    Date: 1986
    Issue Date: 2016-05-05 15:02:35 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 【論文内容提要】
      本論文共一册,約七萬字,分為六章十七節。
      本論文係以負指數模型(Negative Exponential Model)為主,同時配合線型與雙對數共三種廻歸模型,分析一九七六至一九八四年台北市的人口與地價,在時間系列下其空間分佈與變遷的情形。為一種都市空間結構的實證研究。
      本論文的主要發現如左:
    1.台北市的實證結果顯示,負指數模型的效度是三種廻歸模型中最優良的。
    2.台北市的人口密度或地價,隨著至市中心距離的增加,均呈現負指數下降的分佈型態。人口市郊化呈現快速而且加速的情形。地價空間平均化的速度比國外同級都市為快。密度的坡度(Gradient)比地價為陡。
    3.人口密度與地價隨距離呈現負指數下降的型態,應是源於資本替代土地所致。其影響次序是地價先而密度後;其影響程度是密度大而地價小。
    4.台北市市中心的人口密度與地價,不論理論值或實際值,均未呈現持續下降的情形,推翻了前人的主張。
    5.台北市人口密度與地價的關係,是透過距離為中介變項而存在正相關;排除距離變項後,二者的淨相關只在新市區成立。
    6.台北市人口密度的變量與地價的變量,在同一時段成低度正相關,不同時段成中度正相關。
    7.台北市的實證結果顯示,負指數模型的中心值與坡度值並無相關;其影響因素主要為人口、所得及交通。
      本論文針對迅速的人口市郊化與地價空間平均化,所引發的都市交通擁塞惡化、居住環境品質低落及郊區土地投機等負面效果,提出具體的政策建議──
    1.都市交通問題:①實行都市更新;②發展環狀道路系統;③改善大眾運輸系統;④加速信義副都心之開發。
    2.居住環境問題:①公共設施的差別配置方式;②土地使用分區管制的檢討與施行。
    3.郊區投機問題:①明確訂定各地區的可發展程度;②施行照價收買,整體規劃興建辦法。
      本論文的主要價值如下:
    1.理論方面:一般認為負指數模型只是實證的觀察,欠缺理論的基礎,本研究綜整前人理論並加以評述,確定負指數模型的理論基礎。再者,本研究同時分析比較密度與地價,填補了一個學術上的空白。此外,研究結果與前人研究比較,使台北市的實證結果更具客觀性與通則化意義。
    2.實證方面:本研究同時採用三種廻歸型態進行實證,證實負指數模型的效度最佳。此外,研究方法上本研究以街廓為分析單元,取代一般研究採用較方便卻較無價值的行政區分析單元。
    3.應用方面:本研究將研究結果,進一步討論其政策含義,並提出具體的建議,做為市政決策的參考。
    Reference: 【參考文獻】
    一、 中文部份(依姓氏筆劃順序)
    台北市政府
    台北市各區行政區域圖,台北:市政府民政局,1981。
    台北市志,卷三地政篇,台北:市政府文獻會,1978。
    台北市第三期里行政區域調整資料,1至3?,台北:市政府民政局,1978。

    行政院經建會
    都市居住密度之研究,台北:經建會都市規劃處,1977。

    辛晚教
    「都市地價模型」,都市與計畫Ⅱ,台北:都市計畫學會,1976:頁85─99。
    地價對於經濟發展與社會福利影響之研究──地價之理論、問題及對策,台北:中興大學都市計畫研究所,1978。

    李文朗
    「台灣都市化與人口遷徙」,蔡勇美與郭文雄編,都市社會發展之研究,台北:巨流圖書公司,1978:頁179-195。

    孟靜
    「台北市人口分佈與成長之空間變化」,師大地理研究報告(8),台北:師範大學地理研究所,1982:頁219- 232。

    來璋
    「台灣五大都市地價上漲問題」,中興大學法商學報(10),台北:中興大學,1974:頁111-144。

    林中森
    「台北市地價問題之研究」,台灣土地金融季刊(9:2),1972:頁81-107。

    翁淑緣
    SPSS使用手冊,台北:五南圖書公司,1984。

    郭文雄
    「中心都市與市郊關係」,蔡勇美與郭文雄編,都市社會發展之研究,台北:巨流圖書公司,1978:頁89-97。

    陳正祥
    「台北市之研究」,台灣銀行季刊(4:4),1953:頁1-35。

    陳伯中
    都市地理學,台北:三民書局,1983。

    陳寬政
    「台灣的都市化與都市問題」,中國論壇(12:4),1981:頁46-55。
    台北地區日夜間人口分佈及其對流之研究,台北:市政府研考會,1981。

    陳國章
    「台北市人口分佈之空間變化及其與人口密度、地價之關係」,淡江學報(12),台北:淡江文理學院,1974:頁277-286。

    張萬鈞
    台中市人口分佈及其變遷之研究,師範大學地理研究所碩士論文,1982。

    黃大洲、廖敏琚
    「台北市地價分佈模式與變遷」,台灣土地金融季刊(19),1982:頁31-46。

    黃萬居
    台北市人口分佈與變遷之研究:1986-1979年,文化大學政治研究所碩士論文,1981。

    董尚義
    台北市地價空間結構與影響因子之分析,中興大學都市計劃研究所碩士論文,1980。

    趙康
    台北市空間地價之分佈及其對都市計劃與建設之觀點,台北:華欣文化事業,1983。

    趙捷謙
    「運輸技術的改進與都市的發展──以台北市的發展?例」,運輸計劃季刊(5:4),1976:頁19-33。

    劉錚錚
    都市經濟學選論,台北,1974初版。
    台北市主要公共設施之空間分佈及其改進方向,台北:市政府研考會,1982。
    「台灣北區之人口變遷與區域發展」,農業與經濟(2),台北:台灣大學農經系,1978:66-74。

    劉漢奎
    高雄市人口分佈及其變遷之研究,文化學院地學研究所碩士論文,1978。

    龍冠海
    都市社會學理論與應用,台北,1972初版。

    蘇志超、林英彥
    地價與土地利用之研究,台北:政治大學地政系,1978。

    蘇志超、林元興、劉錚錚
    台北市各類使用土地市價影響因素之實證分析,台北:政治大學地政系,1977。

    Rosenberg, Morris
    (The Logic of Survey Analysis:1968)徐正光、黃順二合譯:調查分析的邏輯,台北:黎明文化事業,1979。

    Speare, Alden Jr. etal.,
    (A Measurment of the Accuracy of Data in the Taiwan Household Register:1975) 劉克智、吳惠林、李育靜合譯:「台灣戶籍登記資料準確性的測量」,人口學刊(3),台北:台灣大學人口研究中心,1979:頁85-117。


    二、 外文部份
    Alcaly, Roger E.
    "Transportation and Urban Land Values: A Review of the Theoretical Literature", Land Economics (52:1), 1976: 42-53.

    Alonso, William
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    Location and Land Use: Toward a General Theory of Land Rent, Cambridge Mass: Harvard University Press, 1964 (b).

    Alperovich, Gershon
    "An Empirical Study of Population Density Gradients and Their Determinats", Journal of Regional Science (23:4), 1983: 529-540.

    Amato, Peter M.
    "A Comparison: Population Densities, Land Values and Socioeconomic Class in Four Latin American Cities ", Land Economics (46:4), 1970: 447-455.

    Babbie, Earl R.
    The Practice of Social Research, Hawaii: University of Hawaii Press, 1979.

    Barnbrock, Joern and Greene, David L.
    "Investigation of Population Density Gradients Using Trend Surface Analysis: Comment", Land Economics (53:2), 1976: 239-245.

    Beed, Clive
    "The Development of the Least Cost Theory of Resideatial Location", in The Analysis
    of Urban Development, ed. Nichoals Clark, Melbourne: University of Melbourne Press, 1970.

    Berry, Brain J.L.,
    Simmons, James W., and Tennant, Robert J. "Urban Population Densities: Structure and Change", The Geography Review (53), 1963: 389-405.

    Borger, Bruno De
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    Brigham, Eugene F.
    "The Determinants of Residential Land Values", Land Economics (41:4), 1965: 325-334.

    Burgess, Ernest W.
    "The Growth of the City: An Introduction to a Research Project", in The City, ed. Robert E. Park, Ernest W. Burgess, and Roderick D. Mckenzie, Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1925.

    Bussiere, R.
    "The Spatial Distribution of Urban Populations", International Federaltion for Housing and Planning, Paris, 1968.

    Cadwallader, Martin T.
    Analytical Urban Geography, New York: Prentice-Hall, Inc. 1985.

    Casetti, E.
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    Clark, Colin
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    Regional and Urban Location, Queensland: University of Queensland Press, 1982.

    Chapin, F. Stuart and Kaiser, Edward J.
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    Davis, Kingsley
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    Duncan, Otis D.
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    Echenique, M.
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    Edmonston, Barry and Davies, Omar
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    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    地政學系
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002006529
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[地政學系] 學位論文

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