政大機構典藏-National Chengchi University Institutional Repository(NCCUR):Item 140.119/88684
English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Post-Print筆數 : 27 |  Items with full text/Total items : 113318/144297 (79%)
Visitors : 50980730      Online Users : 916
RC Version 6.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library IR team.
Scope Tips:
  • please add "double quotation mark" for query phrases to get precise results
  • please goto advance search for comprehansive author search
  • Adv. Search
    HomeLoginUploadHelpAboutAdminister Goto mobile version
    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/88684


    Title: 外匯市場非線型時間序列之實證研究 --自迴歸條件異質變異數與類神經網路模式分析法
    A Non-linear Series Analysis of Foreign Market --An ARCH and Neural Approach
    Authors: 葉俊雄
    Yeh, Jiunn Shyong
    Contributors: 毛維凌
    Mao, Wei Ling
    葉俊雄
    Yeh, Jiunn Shyong
    Keywords: 隨機漫步模式
    確定混沌體系
    類神經網路
    倒傳遞網路模式非線型時間序列模式
    自迴歸條件異質變異數模式
    Network
    Non-Linear Time Series
    ARCH
    Forecasting
    Date: 1993
    Issue Date: 2016-04-29 16:30:15 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 學界間廣泛地認為一般金融資產報酬具有的特性是:線型不可預測性,條件
    Reference: [1J 毛維凌[民80],“從方法論看非線型動態經濟模型",政治大學經濟所演
    講稿。
    [2] 何祖平[民80],“多元自迴歸條件異質變異數模型一主要國際貨幣間關
    聯性之研究",政治大學國際貿易研究所碩士論文。
    [3] 吳柏林,劉文卿,陳奕光[民81 ],“隨機模式與混沌模式立預測穩健性探
    討"中國統計學報,第30 卷第2 期, 169-189 頁。
    [4] 莊委桐[民81],“非線型動態模型檢定與在總體經濟模型之應用"政治
    大學經濟研究所碩士論文。
    [5J 許怡隆[民78],“外匯市場風險性溢價之探討一異質條件變異數分析法
    之研究"政治大學國際貿易研究所碩士論文。
    [6] 葉怡成[民82],“顯神經網路模式應用與實作"儒林圖書公司。
    [7] 張淑玲[民80],“總體時間數列非恆定性之研究",政治大學國際貿易研
    究所碩士論文。


    [1]Ashley,R.A., Patterson, D.M. and Hinich,M.J.(1986),”A Diagnostic Test for Nonlinear Serial Dependence in Time Series Fitting Errors”, Journal of Time Series Analysis, Vol.7,No.3, 165-178.
    [2]Ashley, R.A. and Patterson, D.M.(1989),”Linear Versus Nonlinear Macroeconomics: A Statistical Test” ,International Economic Review, Vol.30, No.3, 685-706.
    [3]Baillie, R.T. and Boolerslev, T.(1989), “The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional –Variance Tale”, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol.7,No.3, 297-305.
    [4]Baillie,R.T. and .McMahon,P.C.(1989), The Foreign Exchange Market: Theory and Econometric Evidence, Cambridge University Press.
    [5]Bollerslev, T.(1986), “Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity”,Journal of Econometrics, Vol.31,307-327.
    [6]Brock, W.A(1987),”Notes on Nuisance Parameter Problems in BDS Type Tests for IID”,working paper, University of Wisconsin-Madison.
    [7]Brock,W.A.,Dechert,W.D. and Scheinkman, J.A.(1987),”A Test for Independence Based on the Correlation Dimension”, unpublished manuscript,University of Wisconsin-Madison.
    [8]Brock,W.A., Hsieh,D.A. and LeBaron,B.(1991), Nonlinear Dynamics, Chaos, and Instability: Statistical Theory and Economic Evidence, MIT Press.
    [9]Brock, W.A. and Sayers, C.L.(1988),”Is the Business Cycle Characterized by Deterministic Chaos”,Journal of Monetary Ecxonomics, Vol.22, 71-90.
    [10]Brockett, P.L., Hinich,M.J. and Patterson, D.(1988),”Bispectral-Based Tests for the Detection of Gaussianity and Linearity in Time Series”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol.83,No.403, 657-664.
    [11]Cao,C.Q. and Tsay, R.S.(1992), “Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Stock Volatilities”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol.7, 165-185.
    [12]Cryer,J.D.(1986),Time Series Analysis, PWS Publishers.
    [13]Davies,N. and Petruccelli,J.D.(1986),”Detecting Non – linearity in Time Series”, The Statistician, Vol.35, 271-280.
    [14]Dechert, W.(1987),”A Program to Calculate BDS Statistics for the IBM PC”,Technical paper, Department of Economics, The University of Houston.
    [15]Dickey,D.A. and Fuller, W.A.(1979).”Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol.74, 427-431.
    [16]Dickey,D.A. and Fuller,W.A.(1981),”Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root”, Econometrica, Vol.49,No.4, 1057-1072.
    [17]Diebold,F.X.(1988),”Empirical Modeling of Exchange Rate Dynamics”, Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical System 303, Spring-Verlag published.
    [18]Diebold,F.X. and Nerlove, M.(1989),”The Dynamics of Exchange Rate Volatility: A Multivariate Latent Factor ARCH Model” , Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol.4, 1-21.
    [19]Diebold, F.X. and Nason J.A (1990),”Nonparametric Exchange Rate Prediction?”,Journal of International Economics, Vol. 28, 315-332.
    [20]Engle, R.F.(1982),”Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation”, Econometrica, Vol.50, No.4, 987-1007.
    [21]Engle, R.F. and Bollerslev,T.(1986),”Modelling the Persistence of Conditional Variances”, Econometric Reviews.Vol.5, No.1, 1-50.
    [22]Engle,R.F.,Lilien,D.M. and Robins,R.P.(1987),”Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure:The ARCH-M Model”,Econometrica, Vol.55, No.2, 391-407.
    [23]Fama,E.F.(1965),”The Behavior of Stock Market Prices”, Journal of Business, Vol.38,34-105.
    [25]Freeman,J.A. and Skapura, D.M.(1991),Neural Networks: Algorithms,Applications, and Programming Techniques, Addison-Wesley Publishing Company.
    [26]Funahashi,K.(1989),”On the Approximate Realization of Continuous Mappings by Neural Networks”, Neural Networks, Vol.2, No.3, 183-192.
    [27]Gooijer, J.D.E. and Kumar,K.(1992),”Some Recent Developments in Nonlinear Time Series Modelling, Testing, and Forecasting”, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol.8, 135-156.
    [28]Granger, C.W.J.(1991),”Developments in the Nonlinear Analysis of Economic Series”,Scand.Journal of Economics, Vol.93, No.2, 263-276.
    [29]Gujarati,D.N.(1988),Basic Econometrics, McGraw-Hill Book Company
    [30]Hecht-Nielsen, R. (1990), Neurocomputing, Addison – Wesley Publishing Company.
    [31]Higgins,M.L.and Bera,A.K.(1992),”A class of Nonlinear ARCH Models”, International Economic Review ,Vol.33, No.1 , 137-158.
    [32]Hinich,M.J. and Patterson,D.M.(1985).”Evidence of Nonlinearity in Daily Stock Returns”, Journal of Business and Statistics, Vol.3, No.1, 69-77.
    [33]Hornik,K.,Stinchcombe, M.and White, H.(1989),”Multilayer Feedforward Networks Are Universal Approximators”, Neural Networks, Vol.2, 359-366.
    [34]Hsieh, D.A.(1989),”Testing for Nolinear Dependence in Daily Foreign Exchange Rates”, Journal of Business, Vol.62,No.3, 339-368.
    [35]Hsieh,D.A.(1991),”Chaos and Nonlinear Dynamics: Application to Financial Markets”, Journal of Finance, Vol. 46, No.5, 1839-1877.
    [36]Hsieh,D.A. and LeBaron,B.(1988),”Finite Sample Properties of the BDS Statistic”, University of Chicago and University of Wisconsin-Madison.
    [37]Keenan, D.M.(1985),”A Tukey Nonadditivity-Type Test for Time Series Nonlinearity”,Biometrika,Vol.72, 39-44.
    [38]Kräger,H. and Kugler, P.(1993),”Non-linearities in Foreign Exchange Markets: A Different Perspective”, Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol.12,195-208.
    [39]Lee,T.H.,White H. and Granger, C.W.J.(1993),”Testing for Neglected Nonlinearity in Time Series Models: A Comparison of Neural Network Methods and Alternative Tests”,Journal of Econometrics , Vol.56, 269-290.
    [40]Lee,T.H.,White H. and Granger,C.W.J.(1989),”Testing for Neglected Nonlinearity in Time Series Models: A Comparison of Neural Network Methods and Alternative Tests”, Department of Economics, University of California ,San Diego.
    [41]Lin,C.F.(1992),The Econometrics of Structural Change ,Neural Network and Panel Data Analysis, Dissertation of Ph.D. in Economics, University of California ,San Diego.
    [42]Liu,T.,Granger, G.W.G. and Heller , W.P.(1992), “Using the correlation Exponent to Decide Whether and Economic Series is Chaotic”,Journal of Applied Econometrics, Vol.7,S25-S39.
    [43]Ljung,G.M. and Box ,G.E.P.(1978),”On a Measure of Lack of Fit in Time Series Models”, Biometrika, Vol.65,No.2, 297-303.
    [44]Luukkonen, R.,Saikkonen, P. and Teräsvirta, T.(1988), “ Testing Linearity in Univariate Time Series Models”, Scandanavian Journal of Statistics, Vol.15, 161-175,
    [45]Maravall, A (1983), “An Application of Nonlinear Time Series Forecasting “, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Vol.1, No. 1, 66-74.
    [46]Meese, R.A. and Rogoff,K.(1983),”Empirical Exchange Rate Models of The Seventies: Do They Fit Out of Sample?” ,Journal of International Economics, Vol.14,3-24.
    [47]Meese, R.A. and Singleton,K.J.(1982),”On Unit Roots and the Empirical Modeling of Exchange Rates”, Journal of Finance, Vol.37,No.4, 1029-1035.
    [48]McCurdy,T.H. and Stengos,T.(1992),”A Comparison of Risk-premium Forecasts Implied by Parametric versus Nonparametric Conditional Mean Estimators”, Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 52, 225-244.
    [49]McLeod,A.I. and Li,W.K.(1983),”Diagnostic Checking ARMA Time Series Models Using Squared –Residuals Autocorrelations”, Journal of Time Series Analysis, Vol.4,269-273.
    [50]Milhoj.A.(1985),”The Moment Structure of ARCH Processes”, Scandanavian Journal of Statistics, Vol.12, 281-292.
    [51]Nelson,M.M.and Illingworth,W.T.(1991),A Practical Guide to Neural Nets, Addison-Wesley Publishing Company.
    [52]Nelson,C.R. and Plosser, C.I.(1982), “Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: Some Evidence and Implications”, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol.10, 139-162.
    [53]Phillips,P.C.B(1987),”Time Series Regression With a Unite Root,” , Econometrica, Vol.55, No.2, 277-301.
    [54]Plosser, C.I. and Schwert ,G.W.(1997),”Estimation of a Non- invertible Moving Average Process: The Case of Overdifferencing”,Journal of Econometrics,
    [55]Priestley, M.B.(1980),”State-Dependent Models” A General Approach to Non-Linear Time Series Analysis”, Journal of Time Series Analysis, Vol.1, No.1 47-71.
    [56]Priestley,M.B.(1988),Non-linear and Non-Stationary Time Series Analysis,Academic Press.
    [57] Ramsey,J .B., Sayers,C.L. and Rothman,P.(1992), "The Statistical Properties
    of Dimension Calculations Using Small Data Sets: Some Economic
    Applications", in Benhabib(ed.), Cycles and Chaos in Economic Equilibrium,
    Princeton University Press.
    [58] Ramsey,J .B., Sayers,C.L. and Rothman,P.(1990), "The Statistical Properties
    of Dimension Calculations Using Small Data Sets: Some Economic
    Applications", International Economic Review, Vol.31, No.4, 991-1020.
    [59] Rao,T.S. and Gabr,M.M.(1980), "A Test for Linearity of Stationary Time
    Series", Journal of Time Series analysis, Vol.l, No.1, 145-158.
    [60] Ray,D.(1988), "Comparison of Forecasts: An Empirical Investigation",
    Sankhy ii: The Indian Journal of Statistics, Vol. 50, Series.B, 258-277.
    [61] Rumelhart,D.E., Hinton,G.E. and Williams,R.J .(1986), "Learning Representations
    by Back - propagating Errors", Nature, Vol.323, 533-536 .
    [62] Saikkonen,P. and Luukkonen,R.(1988), "Lagrange Multiplier Tests for
    Testing Non - linearities in Time Series Models", Scandanavian Journal
    of Statistics, Vol.15, 55-68.
    [63] Scheinkman,J .A. and LeBaron,B.(1989a), "Nonlinear Dynamics and GNP
    Data", in William A. John Geweke and Karl SheJ1(eds), Economic Complexity:
    Chaos, Sunspots, Bubbles, and Nonlinearity, Cambridge.
    [64] Scheinkman,J.A. and LeBaron,B.(1989b), "Nonlinear Dynamics and Stock
    Returns", Journal of Business, Vol.62, No.3, 311-337.
    [65] Scheinkman,J .A.(1990), "Nonlinearities in Economic Dynamics", The Economic
    Journal, Vol.100, 33-48.
    [66] Terasvirta,T., Lin,C.F. and Granger,C.W.J .(1993), "Power of the Neural
    Network Linearity Test", Journal of Time Series Analysis, Vol.l4, No.2,
    209-220.
    [67] Terasvirta,T., Lin,C.F. and Granger,C.W.J.(1991), "Power of the Neural
    Network Linearity Test", Discussion Paper 91-01, Department of Economics,
    University of California, San Diego.
    [68] Tsay,R.S.(1986), "Nonlinearity Tests for Time Series", Biometrika, Vol. 73,
    461-466.
    [69] Tong,H.(1990), Nonlinear Time Series: A Dynamic System Approach,
    Oxford University Press, London.
    [70] Tong,H. and Lim,K.S.(1990), "Threshold Autoregression, Limit Cycles
    and Cyclical Data" , Journal of Royal Statistical Society, Series.B, VoIA2,
    No.3, 245-292.
    [71] Wei,W.W.S.(1990), Time Series Analysis: Univariate and Multivariate
    Methods, Addison - `Wesley Publishing Company.
    [72] Weigend,A.S., Huberman,B.A. and Rumelhart,D.E.(1990), "Predicting
    the Future: A Connectionist Approach", International Journal of Neural
    Systems, Vol.1, No.3, 193-209.
    [73] Weiss,A.A.(1986), "ARMA Models with ARCH Errors", Journal of Time
    Series Analysis, Vol.5, No.2, 1-25.
    [74] Weiss,A.A .(1986), "ARCH and Bilinear Time Series Models: Comparison
    and Combination", Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, VolA,
    59-70.
    [75] White,H.(1988), "Economic Prediction Using Neural Networks: The Case
    of IBM Daily Stock Returns", Proceedings of the lEE International Conference
    on Neural Networks, San Diego.
    [76] White,H.(1989), "Some Asymptotic Results for Learning in Single Hidden
    Layer Feedforward Network Models", Journal of the American Statistic
    Association, Vol.84, 1008-1013.
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    經濟學系
    G796802
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002004218
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[Department of Economics] Theses

    Files in This Item:

    File SizeFormat
    index.html0KbHTML2409View/Open


    All items in 政大典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.


    社群 sharing

    著作權政策宣告 Copyright Announcement
    1.本網站之數位內容為國立政治大學所收錄之機構典藏,無償提供學術研究與公眾教育等公益性使用,惟仍請適度,合理使用本網站之內容,以尊重著作權人之權益。商業上之利用,則請先取得著作權人之授權。
    The digital content of this website is part of National Chengchi University Institutional Repository. It provides free access to academic research and public education for non-commercial use. Please utilize it in a proper and reasonable manner and respect the rights of copyright owners. For commercial use, please obtain authorization from the copyright owner in advance.

    2.本網站之製作,已盡力防止侵害著作權人之權益,如仍發現本網站之數位內容有侵害著作權人權益情事者,請權利人通知本網站維護人員(nccur@nccu.edu.tw),維護人員將立即採取移除該數位著作等補救措施。
    NCCU Institutional Repository is made to protect the interests of copyright owners. If you believe that any material on the website infringes copyright, please contact our staff(nccur@nccu.edu.tw). We will remove the work from the repository and investigate your claim.
    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library IR team Copyright ©   - Feedback