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    政大機構典藏 > 商學院 > 統計學系 > 學位論文 >  Item 140.119/88358


    请使用永久网址来引用或连结此文件: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/88358


    题名: 出國觀光旅客需求預測模式建立之研究
    作者: 李旭煌
    Lee, Shiung Hwang
    贡献者: 鄭天澤
    Cheng, Teng Cher
    李旭煌
    Lee, Shiung Hwang
    关键词: 預測模式;平均絕對百分誤差;根均方百分誤差;方向、趨勢變化誤差。
    Forecasting Model;MAPE;RMSPE;Direction of Change Error; Trend Change Error
    日期: 1994
    1993
    上传时间: 2016-04-29 15:31:02 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 自民國69年政府開放國人出國觀光之後,由於國民所得的提高、台幣的升
    參考文獻: 行政院主計處(民82-83),國民經濟動向統計季報.
    行政院主計處(民69-82),中華民國統計月報.
    交通部觀光局(民69-83),觀光資料.
    吳柏林等(民81),”台灣地區外籍觀光旅客人數預測模式之探討”,第
    二屆統計模式與預測系列演講,政大應術所.
    徐守德,李鎮旗(民83),”企業銷售預測之方法與實證研究-以台電公
    司為例”,管理評論,第13卷,第一期,23-56.
    陳敦基(民80),”來華觀光旅客之需求特性與時間序列分析”,民國80
    年觀光事業發展學術研討會論文集.
    陳敦基(民82),來華語出國觀光旅客人數預測模式建立之研究,交通
    部觀光局委託研究報告.
    廖啟泰(民78),Minitab使用手冊,台北:儒林書局.


    Abraham,B. and Ledolter, J.(1983), Statistical Methods for Forecasting, New York:John Wiley.
    Brown, R.G.(1962), Smoothing, Forecasting and Prediction of Discrete Time Serie, Prentice-Hall,Englewood Cliffs,NJ.
    Calantone, R.J., Di Benedetto, C.A. and Bojanic,D.(1987).”A Comprehensive Review o The Tourism Forecasting Literature”, Journal of Travel Research, 26(3),28-39.
    Cryer,J.D.(1987),Time Series Analysis, 1st ed,Boston:Duxbury Press.
    Fritz,R.G., Brandon C. and Xander,J.(1984). “Combining Time-Series and Econometric Forecast of Tourism Activity”, Annals of Tourism Research, 11,219-229.
    Madansky, A. (1988), Prescriptions for Working Statisticians ,New York : Spring –Verlag.
    Makridakis, S. and Winkler,R.L.(1983),” Average of Forecast : Some Empirical Results”, Management Science,29(9),987-996.
    Martin, C.A. and Witt,S.F.(1988),”Substitute Prices in Models of Tourism Demand”, Annalys of Tourism Research,15,2555-268
    Martin, C.A. and Witt,S.F.(1989a),”Forecasting Tourism Demand: A Comparison of the Accurary of Several Quantitative Mthods”, International Journal of Forecasting, 5,7-19.
    Martin,C.A. and Witt,S.F.(1989b),”Accurary of Econometric Forecasts of Tourism”, Annals of Tourism Research, 16,407-428.
    Neter,J., Wasserman, W. and Kutner,M.H.(1985), Applied linear statistical models, 2nd ed, USA:Richard D.Irwin,Inc.
    SAS Institute,Inc.(1988), SAS/ETS User’s Guide, Cary,NC.
    SAS Institute,Inc.(1988), SAS/STAT User’s Guide,Cary,NC.
    Sheldon,P.J. and Var, T.(1985),”Tourism Forecasting:A Review of Empirical Research”,Journal of Forecasting,4(2),183-195.
    Uysal, M. and Crompton,J.L.(1984),”Determinants of Demand for International Tourist Flows to Turkey”,Tourism Management, 5(4),288-297.
    Vandaele, W. (1983), Applied Time Series and Box-Jenkins Models, New York: Academic Press,Inc.
    Wei,Willian.W.S.(1990), Tim Series Analysis-Univariate and Multivariate Methods,New York:Addison-Wesley.
    Witt.C.A and Witt,S.F.(1990),”Appraising An Economic Forecasting Model”, Journal of Travel Research, 29(4), 30-34.
    Witt,S.F.(1990),”Appraising An Economic Forecasting Model”, Journal of Travel Research, 29(4), 30-34.
    Witt,S.F. and Martin, C.A.(1987),”Econometric Models for Forecasting International Tourism Demand”, Journal of Travel Research,26(4),23-30.
    Witt,S.F.,Newbould,G.D. and Watkins,A.J. (1992),”Forecasting Domestic Tourism Demand : Application to Las Vegas Arrivals Data”, Journal of Travel Research,36-41.
    Witt,S.F. and Witt,C.A. (1991), “Tourism Forecassting : Error Magnitude, Direction of Change Error, and Trend Change Error”, Journal of Travel Research, 30(3), 26-33.
    描述: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    統計學系
    81354012
    資料來源: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002003826
    数据类型: thesis
    显示于类别:[統計學系] 學位論文

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