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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/8831


    Title: 預期景氣與宣告效果對房地產景氣之影響
    Authors: 張金鶚
    Date: 2000-06
    Issue Date: 2008-11-18 09:54:11 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本文以存量-流量模型為基礎,探討市場參與者對景氣與政府政策的預期於
    房地產市場調整過程中所扮演的角色,獲得幾個重要而有趣的結論。首先,政府
    容積政策將改變的訊息若於執行前揭露,將有明顯的宣告效果產生,建商將無視
    於房地產市場的不景氣與節節高昇的空屋率而大量搶建,但建照面積的增加則會
    促使房價與租金下跌。其次,當預期資本利得愈高時,會使房價上漲,但租金卻
    會減少,因為屋主願意以相對較低的租金將房屋出租,並由長期的資本利得中獲
    得補償,此可解釋為何國內長期租金與房價比偏低的現象。另外,預期景氣對於
    新建數量的影響並不顯著,可能是因為以往房價的變化雖然是未來景氣的重要指
    標,但由於房地產投資生產時間長,建商必須面對來自總體、區域以及個案本身
    條件的影響,故不易從此單一變數反映出來。
    Relation: 管理科學學報, 17(2), 343-368
    Data Type: article
    Appears in Collections:[地政學系] 期刊論文

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