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政大機構典藏 > 社會科學學院 > 地政學系 > 學位論文 > Item 140.119/88034

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/88034

Title:	房地產景氣與總體經濟景氣關係之研究 The Relationship Analysis Between Real Estate Cycle and Business Cycle in Taiwan
Authors:	王健安 Wang, Chien Ane
Contributors:	張金鶚林秋瑾 Chang, Chin Oh Lin, Chiu Chin 王健安 Wang, Chien Ane
Keywords:	房地產業（景氣）總體經濟景氣產業關聯分析法向後關聯效果景氣綜合指標分析法領先同時落後關係 Real Estate Cycle Business Cycle Input-Output analysis backward linkage composite indexes Analysis
Date:	1994
Issue Date:	2016-04-29 09:45:00 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	房地產業的活動被一般人認為是「火車頭產業」，探究這種未經學術嚴謹定義的說法，涵意概有兩層：其一是認為房地產業有極大的「向後關聯」效果，將可帶動相關總體經濟產業的發展。另一層涵意是指房地產業既然有帶動總體經濟繁榮成長的功能，也就意味著房地產業活動所構成的房地產景氣具有領先總體經濟景氣的特質，而為一般景氣昇沉的預期訊號。惟這種說法似乎與現實情況不合：現總體經濟景氣已有復甦跡象，但房地產業卻相對的毫無起色，因此本研究從「房地產業對總體經濟活動之影響分析」、「房地產景氣與總體經濟景氣在時間上領先、同時、落後關係之探討」兩部份，分別以較嚴謹的「產業關聯分析法」與「景氣綜合指標分析法」，來探討該說法的正確性及政策等含意，獲得「尚無充份的證據支持房地產業是火車頭產業」的結論。　　The fluctuation in the real estate market is of long-standing, and has evoked much discussion, particularly how the real estate activities and cycles are related to macroeconomics has been an important issue drawing tremendous attention in Taiwan. This research contains two parts : in the first part, we have applied the method of lnput-Output(I/O) analysis to identic the backward linkage of the real estate sector. In the second part, we try to use the method of composite indexes of business cycle for real estate cycle indicators, including individual activities, four different stages of real estate life cycle -- investment, construction, transaction, and utilization, to clarify the " timing " relationship between business cycle and real estate cycle.
Description:	碩士國立政治大學地政學系 82257001
Source URI:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002003249
Data Type:	thesis
Appears in Collections:	[地政學系] 學位論文

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