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政大典藏 > College of Commerce > Department of Statistics > Theses > Item 140.119/87724

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/87724

Title:	溫度因素對台灣地區電力需求及尖峰負載之影響 Modelling the impact of temperature on electricity consumption and peak load in Taiwan
Authors:	徐麗萍
Contributors:	鄭天澤徐麗萍
Keywords:	電力消費尖峰負載冷氣度 electricity consumption peak load Cooling degree days
Date:	1996
Issue Date:	2016-04-28 15:59:04 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	長久以來，電力消費與尖峰負載預測之方法不外乎使用迴歸模式及時間序列模式。其選用之自變數往往很多，如國民生產毛額(GNP)、價格、冷氣機台數、冷氣度(Cooling Degree Days)、冷氣時…等，因而使得整個預測模式相當複雜。吾人嘗試簡單以「溫度」單一變數來解釋電力消費與尖峰負載，作迴歸模式與時間序列模式並比較各模式的優劣，尋最適模式適配於『電力消費與溫度』、『尖峰負載與溫度』，並且以台灣地區為例，作實證分析研究，研究結果顯示溫度因素在電力消費上確實佔重要地位。文中溫度因素之單位，選用最具代表性之冷氣度(CDD)來表示，方便吾人探討。
Description:	碩士國立政治大學統計學系 84354001
Source URI:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002002419
Data Type:	thesis
Appears in Collections:	[Department of Statistics] Theses

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