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    Title: 不確定市場下建商投資行為之研究
    Authors: 陳冠華
    Chen, Kuan-Hua
    Contributors: 張金鶚
    林秋瑾

    陳冠華
    Chen, Kuan-Hua
    Keywords: 不可回復性
    可遲延性
    實質選擇權理論
    附合選擇權
    隨機衝擊
    irreversibility
    deferability
    the real option theory
    compound options
    random shocks
    Date: 1998
    Issue Date: 2016-04-22 16:17:13 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 由於土地開發乃是一項典型具有「不可回復性」(irreversibility)以及「可遲延性」(deferability)的投資行為,因此Titman(1985)等人透過「實質選擇權理論」(the real option theory)的觀念重新建構未開發土地的評價模式與土地開發「時機」(timing)的「門檻價值」(hurdle value;critical value)。而相關文獻的結論也都說明了市場不確定性的增加將會增加未開發土地的價值,也將因而延後土地開發的時機。
    Reference: 一、中文部份
    1. 王健安(1998a),”以實質選擇權模式的觀點評估都市土地開發的價值”,第一屆華人不動產研討會,working paper。
    2. 王健安(1998b),”資本投資計畫評核術的一個新觀念—實質選擇權之理論與實證方法的文獻回顧”,台灣土地金融季刊,第35卷,第四期,總號138,pp.75-98。
    3. 王健安(1999),”從等待價值與融資現制的觀點探討不動產投資開發的決策過程以實質選擇權模式的觀點評估都市土地開發的價值”,中華民國住宅學會第八屆年會論文集,pp.221-237。
    4. 王裕翔、張金鶚(1993),”由建築資金變動探討我國建築融資制度”,台灣土地金融季刊,第三十卷,第一期,pp.181-198。
    5. 花敬群(1998),”住宅市場價量關係之研究”,住宅學報第五期,pp.1-15。
    6. 吳森田(1994),”所得、貨幣與房價—近二十年台北地區的觀察”,住宅學報第二期,pp.49-56。
    7. 李宗正、許和鈞、吳壽山(),”應用選擇權定價模式評估BOT投資方法及效益”,
    8. 周治邦主持研究(1994),”選擇權定價理論在經濟學上的應用:理論與實證”,國科會補助專題研究。
    9. 施旻孝(1998),”上市建設公司營運績效評等之研究”,政治大學地政所碩士論文。
    10. 張大成(1996),”隨機最適模型在經濟學上的三個應用”,台灣大學經濟所博士論文。
    11. 張大成(1998),”BOT放棄價值的評估—以台灣高速鐵路為例”,中國財務學會87年論文研討會論文集,pp.868-882,working paper。
    12. 張金鶚主持研究(1993),”我國土地銀行建築融資結構與英美國家建築融資結構比較分析之研究”,台灣土地銀行委託研究案。
    13. 張金鶚主持研究(1995),”房地產景氣與總體經濟景氣關係之研究”,國科會補助專題研究。
    14. 張金鶚(1996),”房地產投資與決策分析—理論與實務”,台北,華泰書局,一版。
    15. 陳溫陶(1997),”實質選擇權在資本投資決策上之應用—航空公司購機選擇權之評價與分析”, 台灣大學財務金融所碩士論文。
    16. 童夢雲(1997),”金融選擇權:市場、評價與策略”,台北,新陸書局,二版。
    17. 彭建文(1997),”生產時間落差與房地產景氣關係之研究”,中華民國住宅學會第六屆年會論文集,pp29-44。
    18. 彭建文(1999),”為何供過於求?—房地產景氣變動下建商供給行為之探討”,中華民國住宅學會第八屆年會論文集,pp427-448。
    19. 楊寶杉(1994),”價格不確定性下的投資計畫管理:選擇權評價理論的應用”,交通大學工業工程所碩士論文。
    20. 蔡進國(1997),”實質選擇權在土地評價上之應用—傳統評估方法與實質選擇權法之分析比較”,台灣大學財務金融所碩士論文。
    二、英文部份
    1. Bernanke, Ben S.(1983), “Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment” , Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 98, pp.85-106。
    2. Bertola, Guiseppe and Ricardo Caballero(1994), “Irreversibility and Aggregate Investment”, Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 61, pp.223-246。
    3. Black, F. and M. Schoies(1973), “The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities”, Journal of Political Economy, 81, pp.637-659。
    4. Brock, William A., Michael Rothschild, and Joseph E. Stiglitz(1988), ”Stochastic Capital Theory”, in Joan Robinson and Modern Economic Theory,
    5. Capozza, Dennis R. and Helsley Robert W.(1989), “The Fundamentals of Land Prices and Urban Growth”, Journal of Urban Economics, Vol.26, pp.295-306。
    6. Capozza, Dennis R. and Gregory M. Schwann(1990), “The Value of Risk in Real Estate Markets”, Journal of Real Estate and Economics, Vol.3, pp.117-140。
    7. Capozza, Dennis R. and Li, Yuming(1994), “The Intensity and Timing of Investment: The Case of Land”, The American Economic Review, September, pp.889-904。
    8. Capozza, Dennis R. and Sick, Gordon A.(1994), ”The Risk Structure of Land Market”, Journal of Urban Economics, Vol.35, pp.297-319。
    9. Cukierman, Alex(1980), ”The Effects of Uncertainty on Investment under Risk Neutrality with Endogenous Information”, Journal of Political Economy, Vol.88, pp.462-475。
    10. Demers, Michel(1991), “Investment under Uncertainty, Irreversibility and the Arrival of Information Over Time”, Review of Economic Studies, Vol.58, pp.333-350。
    11. Dixit, Avinash K.(1992),”Investment and Hysteresis”, Journal of Economic Perspective, Vol.6, No.1,107-132。
    12. Dixit, Avinash K. and Pindyck, Robert S.(1993), “Investment under Uncertainty”, Princeton University Press.。
    13. DiPasquale, Denise and William C. Wheaton(1996), “Urban Economics and Real Estate Market”, Prentice-Hall, Inc.。
    14. Episcopos, Athanasios (1995),” Evidence on the Relationship between Uncertainty and Irreversible Investment”, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Vol.35, No.1, Spring, pp,41-52。
    15. Hirshleifer, Jack & Riley John G.(1992),” The Analytics of Uncertainty and Information”, Cambridge University Press。
    16. Huang, Chia-Hsing(1999), “An Option-Based Real Estate Development Strategy”,中華民國住宅學會第八屆年會論文集,pp.239-249。
    17. Ingersoll, Jonathan E. and Jr. Stephen A. Ross(1992),” Waiting to Invest: Investment and Uncertainty “, Journal of Business, Vol. 65, No.1, pp.1-29。
    18. Majd, S. and R. S. Pindyck(1987),“Time to Build, Option Value, and Investment Decisions”, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol.18, pp.7-27。
    19. Mason, Scott P. and Robert C. Merton(1985), “The Role of Contingent Claims Analysis in Corporate Finance”, in Recent Advances in Corporate Finance, ed. Edward I. Altman and Marti G. Subrahmanyam, pp.7-54。
    20. Marcus, Alan J.(1984), “Futures Markets and Production Decisions”, Journal of Political Economy, VOL.92, pp.409-426。
    21. McDonald, Robert and Siegel, Daniel(1986),”The Value of Waiting to Invest”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, November, pp.707-727。
    22. Myers, Stewart C.(1977),”Determinants of Corporate Borrowing”, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol.5, pp.147-175。
    23. Patel, Kanak and Sting, Tien Foo.(1998),”Empirical Analysis of Irreversibility in Property Investment in UK”, The ERES-AREUEA International Real Estate Conference, Working Paper。
    24. Pyhrr, S. A., Cooper L. E. Wofford, S. D. Kapplin, and Lapides(1989), “Real Estate Investment-Strategy, Analysis, Decision”, New York:John Wiley。
    25. Pindyck, Robert S.(1988),” Irreversible Investment, Capacity Choice, and the Value of the Firm”, The American Economic Review, December, pp.969-985。
    26. Pindyck, Robert S.(1991a), “Irreversibility and The Explanation of Investment Behavior”, in Stochastic Models and Option Values, ed. Lund D. and B. Øksendal, pp.129-141。
    27. Pindyck, Robert S.(1991b), “Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment”, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. XXIX, September, pp.1110-1148。
    28. Quigg, Laura(1993),”Empirical Testing of Real Option-Pricing Models”, Journal of Finance,Vol.48, No.2,pp.621-640。
    29. Roulac, S. E.(1996),”Real Estate Market Cycles, Transformation Forces and Structure Change”,Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management,Vol. 2,pp.1∼17。(彭建文譯,1997,”不動產市場景氣循環、轉變力量與結構變遷”,住宅學報第六期,pp.71∼88。)
    30. Smit, Han T.J. and L.K. Ankum(1993), ”A Real Option and Game-Theoretic Approach to Corporate Investment Strategy under Competition”, Finance Management, pp.241-250。
    31. Titman, Sheridan(1985),”Urban Land Prices under Uncertainty”, The American Economic Review, June, pp.505-514。
    32. Trigeoris, Lenos(1993),”Real Options and Interactions with Financial Flexibility”, Finance Management, pp.202-224。
    33. Trigeoris, Lenos(1996),”Real Options—Managerial Flexibility and Strategy in Resource Allocation”, Cambridge Ma:MIT Press.。
    34. Williams, Joseph T.(1991),”Real Estate Development as an Option”, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Vol4,pp.191-208。
    35. Williams, Joseph T.(1993),”Equilibrium and Options on Real Assets”, The R
    Description: 碩士
    國立政治大學
    地政學系
    86257009
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#B2002001386
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[地政學系] 學位論文

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