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政大機構典藏 > 社會科學學院 > 地政學系 > 學位論文 > Item 140.119/84393

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/84393

Title:	台灣房地產景氣循環之研究-生產時間落差、宣告效果、總體經濟之影響 Real Estate Cycles in Taiwan -- The Influence of Construction Lags, Preannouance Effect, and Macroeconomic Variables
Authors:	彭建文 Peng, Chien-Wen
Contributors:	張金鶚彭建文 Peng, Chien-Wen
Keywords:	房地產景氣生產時間落差預期景氣宣告效果總體經濟次市場共整合 Real Estate Cycles Construction Lags Expectation Preannouncement Effect Macroeconomic variables Cointegration
Date:	2000
Issue Date:	2016-04-14 13:56:53 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	本研究主要依據國內房地產市場的特性，以生產時間落差、預期景氣與宣告效果、以及總體經濟等三個項目為主軸，針對房地產市場的景氣現象進行探討。首先，由生產階段的生產時間落差為出發點，探討房地產景氣與政府政策衝擊對生產時間落差的影響。再來，探討房地產次市場間的互動關係，瞭解預期景氣與宣告效果對不同房地產次市場景氣的影響。最後，探討總體經濟對房地產景氣的影響。在上述理念體系下，本研究進行各項理論的推演與實證分析，所得結論說明如下： This dissertation consisted of three relative essays about real estate cycles. The first paper explores the influence of the real estate cycles on construction lags by analyzing the fluctuations of total floor areas of building permits and usage permits as a reflection of construction lags. Results support that a long-run equilibrium is existing between them; however, building permits may be dropped during a downswing market. In addition, the duration of construction lags is affected by changes in the real estate cycles and by the impacts of policies.　During a time of strong market, the duration of construction lags is cut shorter and is extended when the market is depressed.
Description:	博士國立政治大學地政學系
Source URI:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#A2002000627
Data Type:	thesis
Appears in Collections:	[地政學系] 學位論文

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