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Title:	馬可夫轉換模型在投資策略上的應用
Authors:	馬毓駿
Contributors:	毛維凌馬毓駿
Keywords:	馬可夫轉換投資策略 Capital Asset Pricing Model Value portfolio Growth portfolio
Date:	2000
Issue Date:	2016-03-31 16:45:17 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	馬可夫轉換模型是Hamilton(1989)所提出，他應用此模型的非線性特性研究美國的景氣循環。本文將此模型應用到財務領域當中，希望能從財務報表所揭露的某些訊息來掌握該公司在不同期間的報酬率變化，本文選用價值資產效果及公司規模效果，這兩各種效果對資產報酬率的解釋能力最為顯著，假使運用的得宜，模型的預測能力高，則投資者根據不同的資產特性轉換投資策略，長期間能獲得較佳的投資報酬率。同時，應用平滑過程使模型對狀態的認定更為精確，但在公司規模效果得到的成效明顯優於價值型資產效果，離群值的影響明顯對模型的推論造成嚴重的影響，最後，本文也就補救方法的可行性與否做為結論。
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Description:	碩士國立政治大學經濟學系 87258012
Source URI:	http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#A2002001800
Data Type:	thesis
Appears in Collections:	[Department of Economics] Theses

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