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    题名: 金融發展與經濟成長之因果與非線性關係---金融政策的角色
    其它题名: The Causality and Nonlinearity between Financial Development and Economic Growth---The Roles of Financial Policies
    作者: 洪福聲
    贡献者: 經濟學系
    关键词: 金融發展;政府金融政策;訊息不對稱;經濟成長
    Financial Development,Government Financial Policies,Asymmetric Information,Economic Growth
    日期: 2008
    上传时间: 2016-02-16 16:05:17 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本計畫擬由理論的觀點，探討二個有關於金融發展與經濟成長關係之爭論。長 久以來，金融發展“領先”經濟成長或金融發展“跟隨”經濟成長，一直受爭論。近年 來，由於時間序列資搜集較為完整，許多實証研究針對這一爭論做驗証。結果發現， 不同的研究，使用不同資料及估計方法探討不同國家，其結論並不相同。雖然近來 實証文獻無法獲得一致的結論，然而它們卻也反映一個事實：個別國家的特性或各 國政府金融政策(如借貸利率上限或信用補貼)極可能影響到金融發展“領先”經濟 成長或是金融發展“跟隨”經濟成長的結論。本研究擬推演一個理論模型，探究各國 政府金融政策與個別國家的特性如何影響金融發展與經濟成長的因果關係。 其次，過去近二十年來，研究者已發現金融發展與經濟成長成正相關。受到近 期估計方法的進步，許多學者進一步發現金融發展與經濟成長二者成非線性關係。 然而，不同的學者，依所得水得將國家分成不同群組並使用不同金融發展指標，所 發現的金融發展與經濟成長之非線性關係並不相同。近期，一篇比較令人信服的文 章(Rioja and Valev, 2004)，依金融發展程度將國家分成三個群組，並運用不同的金 融發展指標，發現在金融發展程度較低之國家，金融發展與經濟成長關係並不明 確，但在中度金融發展程度國家中，金融發展顯著地促進經濟成長。對於高度金融 發展程度國家，金融發展仍可促進經濟成長，然而其效力比中度金融發展國家低。 由於世界銀行發現不同發展程度國家其執行金融政策程度並不相同，故本研究認為 政府金融政策對金融發展與經濟成長的非線性關係應該扮演著相當重要的角色，故 本計畫擬探究政府金融政策對金融發展與經濟成長的非線性關係之影響。 上述二個議題均未有理論文獻觸及，基於此，個人認為其貢獻應相當顯著。
    This proposed study intends to investigate two arguments related to the relationship between financial development and economic growth. The first argument is whether financial development “leads” to economic growth or financial development “follows” economic growth. Recently, due the fact that time series data are more complete, some empirical studies have carried out investigation on this issue. Results, however, are mixed, as different studies investigate different countries by utilizing different estimate techniques. Though recent empirical studies seems not able to resolve this debate, they do reveal a fact that countries’ characters as well as government financial policies may play a key role in determining the causality between financial development and economic growth. The purpose of this proposed study intends to develop a theoretical model to shed light on the roles played by financial policies (such as deposit/lending rate ceiling and credit programs) on the finance-growth causality. The other issue that will be addressed is related to the nonlinear relationship between financial development and economic growth. Though recent studies have confirmed that financial development is positively related with economic growth, some have further discovered that this relationship is nonlinear. The nonlinear relationship found by recent studies, however, is not consistent, as recent studies classify countries into different groups according to different indicators. Until recently, a more convincing study has been provided by Rioja and Valev (2004), who classify countries into three groups according to the level of financial development. By using different indicators for financial development, they find that the effects of financial development on economic growth are uncertain for countries with relatively low levels of financial development. For middle levels of initial financial development, financial development, however, significantly promote economic growth. For higher levels of initial financial development, they find that financial development still promote growth; however, its marginal impact is less than that in those countries with middle levels of initial financial development. Since World Bank observes that countries with different development levels exert different financial policies with different extent, it seems that government financial policies must play a role on the nonlinear relationship between financial development and economic growth. Since the roles of government financial policies in the above two issues are examined by recent studies, the contribution of this proposed study should be significant.
    關聯: 計畫編號 NSC97-2628-H004-091-MY2
    数据类型: report
    显示于类别:[經濟學系] 國科會研究計畫

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