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    题名: Mathematical modeling and Bayesian estimation for error-prone retail shelf audits
    作者: 莊皓鈞
    Chuang, Howard Hao-Chun
    贡献者: 資管系
    关键词: Retail operations;Audit services;Inspection error;Risk aversion;Bayesian inference
    日期: 2015-10
    上传时间: 2016-02-15 17:40:48 (UTC+8)
    摘要: Prevalent execution errors such as out-of-stock, inventory record inaccuracy, and product misplacement jeopardize retail performance by causing low on-shelf availability, which discourages not only retailers who have lost sales but also manufacturers who have worked hard to deliver goods into retail stores. Thus, external service companies are hired by manufacturers to conduct manual inspection regularly. Motivated by the practical need of shelf audit service providers, we use a general cost structure to develop a decision support model for periodic inspection. Some qualitative insights about the intricate relationships among inspection efficacy, cost factors, failure rate of shelf inventory integrity, and optimal decisions are derived from analytics assuming risk-neutrality. From simulation experiments we also find that managers` risk preferences have non-trivial impacts on optimal decisions. Based on a total cost standpoint high-quality inspection is predominantly preferred regardless of the level of risk aversion. Finally, we propose a Bayesian statistical model and a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach to estimate model parameters such that managers can make empirically informed decisions. Our major contribution lies in developing a mathematical model that is practically applicable and proposing a Bayesian estimation approach to rationalize unobservable model parameters, which are influential to optimal decisions but often arbitrarily assumed by decision makers.
    關聯: Decision Support Systems,80,72-82
    数据类型: article
    DOI 連結: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.dss.2015.10.003
    DOI: 10.1016/j.dss.2015.10.003
    显示于类别:[資訊管理學系] 期刊論文

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